HashrateUp - A Bitcoin Mining Podcast podcast

This Is the "Polymarket" for Bitcoin Miners

2026-09-22

HashrateUp - A Bitcoin Mining Podcast

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41:28

Matteo Spinosa, founder and CEO of Doefin, built the first accessible prediction market for Bitcoin miners to hedge difficulty. Doefin lets miners and traders take a directional view on network hashrate — or lock in revenue certainty before difficulty spikes — using a Polymarket-style venue where price equals probability.

In this episode, Matteo breaks down why Bitcoin miners have historically been unbankable and uninvestable: difficulty volatility has run twice as volatile as the S&P 500, making cash flow impossible to forecast. Doefin gives miners a primitive tool to stabilize revenue, or to speculate on where hashrate is going.

We cover how the Oracle works (SHA-256 validation of Bitcoin block headers, secured by the network itself), why settlement is non-custodial via cbBTC on Base, and how a miner can hedge a specific amount of petahash against a difficulty increase. Matteo also walks through a live demo of the platform, explains the "For Miners" hedging tool, and shares why Doefin stays out of scope regulation-wise with legal opinions in the UK and Mauritius.

Doefin launched to the public one week before recording, already has seven miners trading (roughly 0.15 BTC in volume), and is building toward a full forward curve for hashrate.

Guest: Matteo Spinosa, CEO and Founder of Doefin

Doefin: https://www.doefin.com/

Matteo on X: https://x.com/MatteoDoefin

Doefin on X: https://x.com/DoefinOfficial

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: what is Doefin and the gap it fills

4:00 Price equals probability explained

9:30 The Oracle problem: how difficulty is validated

15:00 Liquidity and finding the first miners

20:30 Licensing, non-custodial structure and regulation

25:00 Platform demo: deposits, markets and taking a position

32:00 The "For Miners" hedging tool walkthrough