Swamp Notes: Why the polls aren’t budging

Chinese authorities are demanding wealthy individuals and companies double-check their taxes for unpaid liabilities, and the largest US companies are facing two starkly different financial futures after the election. The UK Conservative party elects right-wing Kemi Badenoch as leader, and share prices of clean hydrogen companies have collapsed due to delayed projects and dwindling demand. Mentioned in this podcast:China piles pressure on rich people and companies to cough up taxes What’s at stake in US election? $250bn in taxes for corporate AmericaKemi Badenoch wins Conservative party leadership race US and European hydrogen stock prices collapse as prospects deflate The FT Alphaville pub quiz returns to New York City this November   The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Mischa Frankl-Duval, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In a campaign full of twists and turns, one thing has stayed surprisingly steady: the polls. On this final pre-election episode of Swamp Notes, the FT’s senior data journalist Oliver Roeder and deputy Washington bureau chief Lauren Fedor explain why the polls have barely budged this cycle, and how Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are motivating their voters in the race’s final days. Mentioned in this podcast:One week to go: what is the state of the US presidential race?What the polls can’t tell us about America’s electionTrump rally’s Puerto Rico slur lands with a thud in Pennsylvania‘Behind the Money’: US election betting is on a rollSign up for the FT’s Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apple reported solid revenue growth in the past quarter, and investors are worried about the additional borrowing set out in UK chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget. The US warned that North Korean troops are expected to enter combat alongside Russia’s army in the coming days, and Spain is set to become the world’s fastest-growing major advanced economy this year. Mentioned in this podcast:Apple’s revenue beats Wall Street expectations on higher iPhone sales UK borrowing costs hit highest level this year after BudgetUkraine and US warn Kyiv’s troops could face North Korean forces ‘in days’ Spanish growth soars as Eurozone stumblesThe FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Microsoft’s quarterly revenue rose 16% on strong cloud computing demand, the UK’s Labour party reveals bold tax increases and borrowing, and the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. Plus, critics cry foul over a proof of citizenship law in Arizona. Mentioned in this podcast:Microsoft’s revenue beats estimates on strong cloud demand from AI boom Rachel Reeves announces £40bn tax increase in UK Budget Arizona’s proof of citizenship complicates voting in US swing state US GDP rose at a 2.8% rate in third quarter on strong consumer spending Play the FT’s Budget game: https://ig.ft.com/chancellor-game/ The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Michela Tindera, Katya Kumkova, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Alphabet’s profit jumped 34 per cent in the third quarter, and Israel’s parliament approved legislation on Monday that will ban a UN agency for Palestinian refugees from operating within Israeli territory. The US and Taiwan are preparing to negotiate a new tax agreement, and mobile chip designer Arm may try to rival Nvidia. Mentioned in this podcast:Google’s profits beat expectations on strong cloud computing growthIsraeli parliament passes law banning UN Palestinian refugee agency US and Taiwan set for talks to end double taxation for companies The rise and rise of Arm Giant African rats join crackdown against illegal wildlife tradeThe FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

PwC’s business in Asia contracted sharply in the past year, Boeing announced a $19bn share sale to help avoid a credit rating downgrade, and Volkswagen plans a massive restructuring that includes shutting at least three German plants. Plus, fears of violence have left some US election boards struggling to hire poll workers. Mentioned in this podcast:PwC loses market share in Asia Boeing launches $19bn share sale to bolster finances and avoid downgrade Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs US polling places struggle to find workers after surge in threats The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Iran has signalled that it will pursue a measured response to Israel’s latest strikes, and Georgia’s opposition has called for protests after the ruling Georgian Dream party claims victory. Plus, the possibility of Donald Trump’s trade war has hit the shares of export-sensitive European companies, and large investment funds are being forced to offload their shares in tech companies, or risk breaking US tax rules. Mentioned in this podcast:Iran’s supreme leader signals measured response to Israel’s attack Vladimir Putin’s battle to keep Georgia in Russia’s orbitGeorgia’s opposition calls for protests as election outcome is disputed European stocks hit by ‘Trump effect’ as odds tilt towards Republican win Tech boom forces US funds to dump shares to avoid breach of tax rules  The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the election just over a week away, Swamp Notes visited the University of Michigan to recap the final FT-Michigan Ross poll. Swamp Notes host Sonja Hutson is joined by the FT’s US managing editor Peter Spiegel, and Erik Gordon and Francine Lafontaine of the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business to examine the poll results and explain why the economy remains top-of-mind for voters. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump takes lead over Kamala Harris on US economy in final FT pollSign up for the FT’s Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tesla shares leapt 22% after Elon Musk predicted an electric vehicle sales rebound, and Russia’s pitch for a US dollar alternative failed to excite Brics leaders. Plus, a major change to the open source technology model could be coming. Mentioned in this podcast: Tesla shares leap 22% after Elon Musk predicts sales rebound Vladimir Putin’s alternative to ‘weaponised’ dollar fails to excite Brics partners The bill is coming for tech’s open source free lunch The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Boeing’s machinists voted on Wednesday to reject the company’s latest offer and the US has finalised long-awaited ‘open banking’ rules, hoping it will inject more competition into the market. Plus, Deutsche Bank reported a record third-quarter profit and artificial intelligence start-up Anthropic has built a virtual agent that can perform tasks on a computer.Mentioned in this podcast:Striking Boeing machinists reject offer as stand-off nears 6 weeksUS rolls out ‘open banking’ rules to make sharing financial data easier Open banking challenges America’s cozy lenders’ club Deutsche Bank warns of rising bad loan provisions Anthropic says latest AI model can control users’ computers The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.