Episode 6: Energy Markets in Turmoil: Signal vs Noise

Energy markets are once again at the centre of global uncertainty, with geopolitical tensions reshaping flows, pricing, and risk.In this episode, Giacomo Prandelli, founder of The Merchant’s News, joins us to break down how traders interpret these moments in real time.From the impact of Middle East tensions to the growing role of financial markets in price formation, we discuss how today’s traders separate signal from noise and where they are finding edge.

In this episode, we’re discussing how rising tensions in the Middle East could impact the global LNG market and, ultimately, European gas prices. Europe has become increasingly dependent on LNG imports since the disruption of Russian pipeline flows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, a significant share of global LNG passes through sensitive shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. So the key question is: how vulnerable are LNG markets—and European gas prices—to geopolitical escalation in the region? To explore that, I’m joined today by Natasha Fielding, Editorial Manager at Argus Media, who will help us unpack the risks for LNG supply, shipping routes, and European gas markets.

Today’s guest is Albert Mackenzie from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Albert is a copper analyst and reporter who has been covering the copper market for the past four years. Before joining Benchmark, he worked in pricing at Fastmarkets, giving him a strong foundation in how metals markets function at both the transactional and structural level. In this episode, we dive into copper’s record highs and the reasoning behind the rally. We explore the apparent surplus in inventories, including what Albert calls the “invisible stock”, and what that means for the market. We also discuss copper’s growing role in AI infrastructure and electrification, and how the evolving tariff landscape could shape the next phase of the market. It’s an interesting, nuanced conversation about one of the most important metals in the global economy.

In this episode, we are joined by Thanasis Davakis founder of a risk management consultancy Just Freight with a background in mathematics and finance, and former experience at Navios developing hedging strategies. We explore the geopolitical forces shaping today’s freight markets, from Red Sea disruption and a potential Suez reopening to the possible end of the Russia–Ukraine war and growing uncertainty around global green policy. Together, we unpack how these inefficiencies and policy shifts are influencing rates, risk, and decision-making for shipowners and traders. Thanasis shares practical insights on navigating volatility, building smarter hedging strategies, and managing freight exposure in an increasingly unpredictable market. A sharp, forward-looking conversation connecting global events with real trading and shipping dynamics.

In this episode, we have our usual macro-outlook, starting with what happened in Davos, how trade is shaping the geopolitical environment and what this means for dry freight. We are then exploring the fascinating and fast-moving world of base metals. From copper that powers the clean energy transition to aluminium driving manufacturing innovation, these foundational commodities are at the heart of global industry and economic growth.Joining us is Andy Farida, Senior Analyst at Fastmarkets, bringing us his sharp insights and a clear pulse on the market, delving in the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the base metals space. Whether you’re an investor, an industry professional, or just curious about what’s moving these markets, Andy’s outlook will help you make sense of it all.

On the 3rd January 2026, the United States military launched Operation Absolute Resolve, an operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas. President Trump stated that the US would “run Venezuela” and that American oil companies would step in to help “fix the badly broken infrastructure”. Venezuela’s strategic importance, however, extends well beyond oil. The country holds significant reserves of a wide range of commodities, raising important economic, market and geopolitical questions.In this first episode of Into the Futures, Richard Stephenson examines the implications of recent events, the changing US foreign policy, the outlook for Venezuelan commodities, and what this could mean for global financial markets.

Hedging, Monetary Policy, and Oil Swings: Insights from FIS’s Latest PodcastThis week on Freight Up, we set out to give listeners practical insights into the world of risk management across the commodity spectrum, from freight to metals to crude oil. If you’re looking to understand what’s really happening under the surface of today’s volatile markets, this episode features perspectives from professionals who operate right at that interface between price risk and real-world trade. We started with Samuel Basi, founder of Perfectly Hedged Consultancy and a former Trafigura metals trader, for a deep dive into the realities of commodity hedging in liquid and illiquid markets. From there, we heard from Carlo Boffa, a central bank watcher at Politico, on central bank decisions and how the evolving landscape of monetary policy is shaping the US dollar and, by extension, commodity prices. We wrap up with Archie Smith, oil broker, who broke down the extreme pricing swings in the oil market driven by macro shocks and geopolitical headlines, highlighting what’s front of mind for market participants right now.Some of the headline talking points this week include: the merits and pitfalls of one-to-one hedging in today’s market, with Sam exploring where hedging can reduce risk and where it might inadvertently add more. We tackled the specific challenges faced by traders and companies in less liquid markets, including practical ways to quantify risk and work with imperfect hedges—or get creative in the over-the-counter space to find coverage. Options came under the spotlight, especially with clients’ hesitancy to use them, and Sam gave practical context about why options sometimes get overlooked and when they can be a valuable part of a strategy. Companies mentioned in this episode: FIS Perfectly Hedged Consultancy Trafigura Politico LME CME SGX ICE Citadel GMI

This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads.I’m Jess, and alongside Davide, I’ll be steering you through what’s been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets. This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark. We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal. To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what’s shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it’s been a sideways stretch for paper spreads.If you listen in, you’ll get a clear overview of how China’s latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows. Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that’s hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates.From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what’s behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action. Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil’s recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC’s output strategies and why Singapore’s high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There’s especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts.By the time you’ve finished listening, you’ll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you’ll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances. Whether you’re looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what’s shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.

Iron ore has seen a sharp drop recently, and high sulphur fuel oil cracks have surged to levels not seen before—two standout moves that framed this episode of Freight Up. Hi I’m Jess, and alongside Davide and the team, we walk you through what’s really driving these changes in dry bulk freight and associated commodity markets. You'll get to listen in at how macroeconomic shifts, from British and Chinese output data to volatile US producer prices, ripple through to capesize, panamax, and supramax freight rates. We pull apart the data to give you a snapshot of who’s gaining, who’s losing, and crucially, why those shifts matter for your business or your market view.Ben Klang takes us through the past two weeks on the freight desk, describing how minor volatility in the cape market was quickly tempered as fixtures came through and macro tensions eased. If you’re watching iron ore, we cover the steep pullback, tied less to headlines and more to solid fundamentals: declining pig iron output in China, seasonal maintenance, and looming Indian monsoon slowdowns. Hao Pei shares why these are seasonal and not panic-worthy moves, even if some investors have visions of iron ore dropping into the low $70s. On oil and bunkers, Archie Smith delivers a concise summary: crude markets haven’t escaped their range, with all eyes on the upcoming OPEC meeting, while high sulphur fuel oil cracks—historically always negative—have broken into positive territory, even hitting plus $4 in Singapore. Timestamped summary00:00 China's Industrial Growth Slows06:25 Capesize Market Challenges Persist07:03 Capesize Cargo Volumes Rising11:49 "Market Shifts Impact Iron Ore Demand"14:59 OPEC Meeting and Crude Price Outlook16:47 Record-High Crack Spread Highlights TrendsDownload the FIS Live app! - https://freightinvestorservices.com/

The main story across freight and commodities over the past fortnight has been the headline-making 90-day tariff reduction between the US and China. Hi, I’m Jess, and on this episode of Freight Up, myself and Davide unpack how this policy shift has tempered volatility and delivered a short-term lift to otherwise flat markets. Ben Klang joins us after a busy run of industry events, detailing the impact on dry freight—where Capesize contracts saw a fleeting rebound before losing ground, and smaller Panamax and Supramax rates remained lacklustre. We’ll investigate the cautious optimism on the macro front, following stubborn inflation and steady US employment numbers. We'll also take a closer look at iron ore and steel markets, with regional insights you won’t want to miss. From Shanghai, Hao Pei explores iron ore’s resilience—even as tariffs shift—and the mounting influence of port logistics in Peru and ongoing maintenance cycles in China. Timestamped summary00:00 Mixed Inflation and Market Stability03:32 Cape Size Contract Fluctuations08:06 Steel Tariffs Impact and Trade Dynamics10:44 FOBCC Market Outlook Uncertain13:24 US Steel Market Challenges18:10 "Spot Price Drop Forecasted"Website Check out FIS Live - https://www.fis-live.com/