Fault Lines Episode 573: Missiles and Mixed Signals

Today, Jess, Les, Matthew, and Matt unpack the growing uncertainty in Iran as the United States prepares to deploy up to 3,000 additional troops while President Trump advances a 15-point peace plan. At the center of this moment is a fragile leadership picture, with Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly in power but sidelined by injury and inexperience, and figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf emerging as potential intermediaries—or future power brokers.Who is actually speaking for the U.S. in these talks, and is there a credible counterpart on the Iranian side? As a coalition forms to secure global energy flows, does this mark a turning point in allied coordination? With rapid advances in defense technology underway, is this conflict reshaping not just the region, but the future of warfare?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/iZvcp5MHLq4 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Jess, and Matt examine Iran's latest escalation after Tehran launched two intermediate-range missiles at Diego Garcia, a US-UK joint base on Friday. This morning, President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, claiming weekend progress in talks with Iran. The announcement comes as Iran demonstrates it can now hold more than just the Middle East hostage, with its longer-range capabilities potentially dragging Europe directly into the conflict.                                           Is Trump's pause a genuine diplomatic opening or a negotiation tactic? With Iran's longer-range capabilities in play and the Strait of Hormuz increasingly unstable, will European capitals finally be compelled to act? What does this mean for U.S. marines deploying to the region?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3I3w-gcbrlQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jess, and Amy examine the Trump administration's rumored $200 billion supplemental appropriations request for operations in Iran — a figure that would exceed every previous wartime funding request. The request comes alongside whispers of a $1.5 trillion defense budget, a staggering 50 percent increase over last year. Both the House and Senate declined to disapprove military action in Iran, even as questions mount about what the funds will actually cover and whether this signals a prolonged conflict ahead.Is this request a bridge to permanently higher defense spending, or a temporary surge tied to specific operational needs? How does a $200 billion ask square with the administration's repeated claims about military readiness and stockpile health? If Congress can't muster the votes for standalone authorization, could they push this through budget reconciliation instead? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cRhG08wn9eQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Andy, and Algene unpack rising tensions between the Trump administration and NATO, as European allies show little appetite for joining a U.S.-led mission tied to Iran—even as they face rising economic stakes. President Trump’s frustration has been clear, underscoring a growing divide despite longstanding alliance ties.Are the U.S. and NATO still aligned, or drifting toward something closer to a “frenemy” relationship? Is Europe reverting to a more cautious posture toward Iran—or just being consistent? And with regional partners backing the U.S., can Washington move forward without NATO—or does sidelining it weaken the strategy?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajery@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube; watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/mP-FW5XqIp0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess examine what the Trump administration’s next move on Cuba might look like. Reports suggest Raúl Castro’s grandson may be quietly engaging with U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio. Some proposals envision allowing Cuban-Americans to invest in the island, though questions remain about whether meaningful economic engagement is possible without major political change.What does the administration hope to achieve in Cuba, and would regime change bring lasting reform? Would Cuban-Americans be willing to invest in the island without clear property rights and the rule of law? Are the Cuban leadership’s reported outreach efforts genuine—or simply another stalling tactic? And as unrest grows inside the country, what might finally become the tipping point for real change on the island?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/qdXmBD6CKO0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Les break down a clash between the Pentagon and Anthropic, a leading AI company. The dispute arose after Anthropic said it does not want its technology used for mass surveillance of Americans or in fully autonomous weapons systems, while the Department of Defense insists its tools must remain available for any lawful purpose. When the two sides couldn’t agree, the Pentagon ordered Anthropic’s Claude AI removed from Defense Department networks and Anthropic sued.Who ultimately sets the terms when private technology meets national security? Could this sweeping ban disrupt defense contracts and supply chains that increasingly rely on AI? And at a time of escalation in the Middle East, does sidelining a major AI provider strengthen U.S. security — or risk slowing innovation when it matters most?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xMBSoKtRW1I Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, and Jess preview the upcoming Trump–Xi summit scheduled for March 31 in Beijing. Despite the significance of a meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest powers, preparations appear unusually thin. Major head-of-state visits typically involve months of diplomatic groundwork, detailed agendas, and large business delegations, but reports suggest that planning for this summit remains unclear, with few policy objectives publicly identified. What should the United States be aiming to achieve from this meeting? Is the administration missing an opportunity to shape the U.S.–China relationship at a critical moment, or is a quieter, less theatrical summit the strategy? And with China seeking stability and the U.S. balancing global crises from the Middle East to Europe, could this meeting quietly reset expectations between Washington and Beijing?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/cVYcWn6nCoM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jamil, Les, and Andy take stock of the war with Iran as the conflict enters its second week. Tehran has continued missile and drone attacks across the region, including strikes toward Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, even as Iran’s president publicly apologized for some of the attacks. Meanwhile, Israel struck major fuel infrastructure inside Iran, and reports indicate the regime has selected Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah, as the country’s new Supreme Leader, raising questions about a potentially more hardline and hereditary turn in Iran’s leadership.What does the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei mean for the future of the Iranian regime and its relationship with the United States? Is this a moment Washington could use to pressure the regime as its command-and-control structure shows signs of strain? And with conflicting statements emerging from Iran’s political and military leadership, are we witnessing the fog of war or deeper fractures within the regime itself?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.Check out these sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/irans-foreign-minister-rejects-calls-ceasefire-continue-fighting-rcna262291https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/07/offer-from-irans-president-to-not-attack-neighbours-provokes-internal-backlashhttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/world/middleeast/israel-iran-oil-strikes.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RlA.7y5K.rylKW2rO5YJs&smid=nytcore-ios-share @jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@andykeiser@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ZKEBLbNgWdg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Morgan, Joshua, and Algene revisit the war with Iran as the conflict enters its seventh day. Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles across the region, including strikes toward Azerbaijan, Turkey, Cyprus, and several Sunni Arab states, in what appears to be an effort to widen the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia is providing targeting intelligence to Iran, while Ukraine has offered assistance to the U.S. and Israel based on its battlefield experience countering drones and missiles.Where does the conflict go from here? Will Iran’s efforts to broaden the war draw in new actors or continue to push regional states closer to Washington? What role might partners like Ukraine or private defense companies play as the demand for missile and drone defense grows? And as Congress narrowly votes down resolutions opposing the war under the War Powers Resolution, does that effectively amount to legislative approval of the President’s actions?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@morganlroach@joshuachuminski @AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-zyJzSLc78Q Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Andy, Jess, and Marc provide an update on the escalating conflict with Iran following the launch of Operation Epic Fury. The joint U.S.–Israeli campaign is still underway, with strikes targeting Iranian missile and naval capabilities while Tehran and its proxies retaliate against U.S. interests in the region. What began as a decapitation strike has quickly expanded into a broader military effort, raising questions about how far the United States intends to go.Is this still a limited operation, or the start of a longer regional conflict? How long can the United States realistically sustain a campaign of this scale? And as Congress debates war powers and funding while global shipping, energy markets, and U.S. force posture come under pressure, what are the wider consequences of this campaign?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@andykeiser@nottvjessjones@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FZlIW8T9R6g Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.