Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 1-Oct

US equities were slightly lower this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both breaking three-straight weeks of gains. Geopolitical risk sparked a ramp in oil prices this week, which could add risk to the soft-landing narrative and potentially put upward pressure on inflation. The big data report this week was September payrolls, which came in at 254K, above 150K consensus, while the prior two months were revised up 72K and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1%.

US equities closed lower in Thursday trading, ending not far from worst levels. Quiet session with light volume and choppy trading with market in a waiting game for September NFP tomorrow. Middle East tensions continue to be flagged as an overhang. Weekly initial claims printed a bit above consensus.

US equities finished fractionally higher overall in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 9bps, 1bp, and 8bps respectively. Stocks stabilized today, largely shrugging off recent Middle East developments, while work stoppage at US East and Gulf Coast ports a widely flagged potential growth and supply chain risk. ADP private payrolls of 143K came in above 125K consensus. Richmond’s Barkin said Fed may have trouble covering the "last mile" on inflation.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, but ended off worst levels. Market trading risk off to start October/Q4 with latest ramp in Middle East tensions the go-to excuse. JOLTS job openings came in firmer than expected. ISM manufacturing a bit weaker than expected at 47.2 in September. Nothing incremental in Fedspeak.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off their best levels after erasing afternoon declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closing up 4bps, 42bps, and 38bps respectively. Fed Chair Powell said that if the economy evolves as expected, two 25bp cuts are the base case for remainder of year. Fed Governor Bowman repeated her preference for slower easing. Atlanta's Bostic said he's open to a 50bp move should the labor market weaken. September’s Dallas Fed Index came in ahead of estimates, and Chicago PMI came in slightly ahead of consensus on backlogs and employment upside.

US equities were higher for the week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new fresh all-time highs today, and the Nasdaq locking in five straight sessions of gains. China stimulus, Micron earnings, and August core PCE were the big stories this week. The global easing cycle was in the headlines with the SNB delivering its third consecutive rate cut and flagging the potential for further easing, while the probability of an ECB rate cut in October picked up as well.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks rebounded from Wednesday's mostly lower session. A number of bullish updates included much better than expected results and guidance from MU, while broader AI secular growth theme also supported by NRG, ACN updates. Initial claims of 218K below consensus, lowest since May, while continuing claims in line. Durable goods orders beat.

US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though ended off worst levels. Nothing really new today as market continues to wait for NFP next Friday and start of Q3 earnings. August new home sales declined less than expected m/m, with July revised higher. 

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels after a fairly uneventful afternoon. September consumer confidence came in below an upwardly revised August, with the present situation and expectation indices both lower m/m. September's Richmond Fed manufacturing index slipped m/m, with employment a weak spot.

US equities were mostly higher in fairly quiet, rangebound Monday trading. September flash manufacturing PMI slipped to 47 from 47.9 in August, below the 48.5 consensus. A busy week of Fedspeak lies ahead, with Bowman, Kugler, Williams, Barr, Cook and Collins all on tap.