NFL Mock Draft (1st Round)! NFL Draft Podcast EP. 15

Rich Dotson, Garret Price, and Matt O'Hara kick off Part 1 of their 2026 rookie running back breakdown with a blunt message. This class is thin, free agency already filled several backfields, and dynasty managers need to be careful chasing names just because the position looks desperate. Jeremiyah Love sits alone at the top of this group, and the discussion centers on why the fantasy ceiling is built through the passing game. They highlight the movement skills, open-field timing, and route ability that could translate into real PPR volume, while still acknowledging the minor flaws that keep the profile from being “perfect.” Once Love is off the board, the episode shifts into dart throw territory. Kaytron Allen gets credit for vision and reliability, but the lack of juice and limited receiving upside caps the dynasty ceiling. Demond Claiborne brings speed and twitch, but the show debates whether drops and ball security could keep him from earning consistent NFL touches. Adam Randall is the ultimate “traits and projection” swing, with a path that might be more creative usage than true every-down work. They also run through J'Mari Taylor and Robert Henry Jr. as deeper bets where the flashes are there, but the margin for error is tiny in a class that already feels like a tough bet. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00:00 Start 00:04:36 Jeremiyah Love 00:18:21 Kaytron Allen 00:26:56 Demond Claiborne 00:41:53 FFPC 00:45:02 Adam Randall 00:55:45 J'Mari Taylor 01:03:00 Robert Henry Jr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Garret and Andrew go live by accident and roll straight into a rapid-fire dynasty reaction show as NFL free agency reshapes the 2026 landscape. From quarterback contracts to running back bags to sneaky value swings at tight end, the biggest takeaway is simple: the market is moving fast, and the dynasty “buy window” on some players is already closing. They start with Malik Willis landing a three-year deal in Miami and explain why the rushing upside could create a short-term QB1 window, but also why this is now a “hold or sell” market, not a buy. At running back, Kenneth Walker in Kansas City gets framed as a splashy move with real upside, but enough role and durability questions to keep expectations in check. Travis Etienne gets the biggest bullish push as a volume bet in a friendly system, while JK Dobbins returning to Denver is treated as a loud signal that caps RJ Harvey optimism. They hit the messy middle fast: Kenny Gainwell to Tampa Bay changes the conversation around Bucky Irving, while Rico Dowdle in Pittsburgh draws real excitement because of the coaching fit and role clarity. At wide receiver, Alec Pierce gets labeled as a price-inflated asset worth exploring as a sell, and the Wan’Dale Robinson versus Rashid Shaheed debate comes down to weekly PPR value versus spike-week appeal. They close with tight ends, including a small bump for Cade Otton, and a meaningful tier jump for Isaiah Likely if the Giants keep the target tree thin. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Intro 01:22 Quarterbacks 06:51 Running Backs 32:31 Wide Receivers 44:04 Tight Ends 48:07 Wrap-up Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jagger May and Andrew Mott break down best NFL fits for the 2026 rookie quarterback class, starting with the easiest call on the board and then working through a tier of prospects where development path matters more than immediate upside. They land on a clear QB1 destination, debate the most polarizing “where should he go?” fit, and round out the show with Day 3-style swings that need patience, structure, and the right staff to have any chance of becoming more than backups. They kick off with Fernando Mendoza and make it simple. The Raiders are the best fit, and it is not close. They like the structure around him, the offensive environment, and how clean the transition feels from a roster-building standpoint. If there is one quarterback spot that feels locked in before draft night, this is the one. From there, the conversation shifts into “who can actually develop” territory. Garrett Nussmeier gets framed as a top-three quarterback in the class, with a preferred fit that allows him to sit and grow rather than getting forced onto the field too early. The show also spends time on the biggest fit debate of the episode with Ty Simpson, with Andrew pushing the Rams as the ideal landing spot for a year or two of development behind a veteran, while Jagger defends a more aggressive “teams will trade and take their guy” view of how the first round can unfold. They also place Carson Beck in the bridge-quarterback lane, and talk through why the right coaching environment could matter more than raw traits for Drew Allar, Cole Payton, Taylen Green, Cade Klubnik, and Diego Pavia, where the realistic goal is often “earn a roster spot and get time to develop” before anything else. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 00:17 Fernando Mendoza 02:11 Garrett Nussmeier 09:03 Join the #NERDHERD 10:07 Ty Simpson 17:10 Carson Beck 21:28 Drew Allar 26:24 Cole Payton 30:15 Taylen Green 34:31 Cade Klubnik 37:04 Diego Pavia Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Garret Price, Jagger May, and Andrew Mott run a full one-round, 32-pick NFL mock draft built for chaos. This is not a fantasy mock. It is a true “every position counts” exercise where Combine buzz, roster needs, and team-building philosophy collide fast. It starts the way most people expect, with the Raiders taking Fernando Mendoza at 1.01. From there, the draft leans heavily into premium value: edge, secondary, and trench help. The early run features the Jets grabbing Arvell Reese, the Cardinals building up front with Spencer Fano, and the Titans selecting David Bailey as a foundational defensive add. By the time the Giants land Sonny Styles, the board is already setting up a key theme for the rest of the mock: teams that are not truly ready to win still have to decide whether to chase a “finishing piece” or keep stacking long-term pillars. A major pivot point comes with the Commanders selecting Jeremiyah Love, which sparks the conversation about how early a team should take a running back. Later, the Chiefs land Carnell Tate, and the back half of the round becomes about fit and roster construction more than pure hype, including Mansoor Delane to the Dolphins, Caleb Downs to the Cowboys, and Jordyn Tyson to the Rams. The late first round continues to load up on immediate contributors, with Makai Lemon, Zion Young, and Ty Simpson all coming off the board, before the mock closes with defenders and trench picks that could quietly matter a lot if the landing spots hit. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 01:17 1. Raiders (Fernando Mendoza) 01:57 2. Jets (Arvell Reese) 04:07 3. Cardinals (Spencer Fano) 06:18 4. Titans (David Bailey) 08:11 5. Giants (Sonny Styles) 09:25 7. Commanders (Jeremiyah Love) 13:36 9. Chiefs (Carnell Tate) 15:05 10. Monroe Freeling 16:06 11. Dolphins (Mansoor Delane) 18:50 12. Cowboys (Caleb Downs) 20:05 13. Rams (Jordyn Tyson) 22:47 Picks 14 and 15 24:00 16. Jets (Makai Lemon) 25:43 17. Lions (Zion Young) 28:15 18. Vikings (Ty Simpson) 34:29 19. Panthers (Akheem Mesidor) 35:19 20. Cowboys (Cashius Howell) 36:07 22. Chargers (Olaivagega Ioane) 37:33 22. Eagles ( Caleb Lomu) 38:29 24. Browns (Blake Miller) 39:14 25. Bears (Caleb Banks) 40:21 26. Buffalo Bills (T.J. Parker) 41:34 27. 49ers (Omar Cooper Jr.) 42:27 28. Texans (Emmanuel Pregnon) 43:10 29. Chiefs (Avieon Terrell) 44:06 30. Broncos (CJ Allen) 45:50 31. Patriots (Kadyn Proctor) 48:00 32. Seahawks (Jacob Rodriguez) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rich, Matt, and Garret return for Part Two of their 2026 rookie quarterback reviews, and the theme is pretty blunt: this group has far more projection risk than certainty. They still break down the paths to relevance, but most of the discussion comes back to what NFL draft capital will say about these evaluations. They open with Ty Simpson, and the argument is all about risk tolerance. He does a lot of things “fine,” with a quick release and solid short-to-intermediate accuracy, but the limited starts and shaky deep ball outcomes keep him from feeling like a safe Round 1 bet. The overall takeaway is that he is much easier to like if he lands as a Round 2 investment instead of being treated like a franchise cornerstone. Haynes King is the cleanest example of “testing and rushing production are not enough.” The athleticism and rushing numbers create obvious fantasy temptation, but the passing profile is too inconsistent for them to buy him as a real NFL quarterback. The more realistic path they keep circling is a role player or chess-piece type usage rather than a full-time starter you build around. With Carson Beck, the discussion centers on what happens when a quarterback does not have rushing outs. He can operate an offense when things are clean and structured, but heavy feet, pressure issues, and inconsistent ball placement limit the fantasy ceiling. They frame him more as a bridge outcome than a long-term fantasy starter. They are very low on Sawyer Robertson. The size and arm are there, but the tape reaction is overwhelmingly negative, especially on accuracy and throws outside the numbers. This is the clearest “do not draft” profile of the episode. Cade Klubnik lands in the uncomfortable middle. He has enough athletic ability and quick-game traits to survive, but they question whether the pressure response and inconsistency can ever be cleaned up enough to matter in the NFL. The most likely outcome they describe is a borderline starter or backup track, with only a narrow path to something more. They close with Cole Payton, who is difficult to pin down because the mechanics look messy but the production and athleticism still pop. The conversation frames him as a developmental bet you only take if an NFL team commits real coaching time to him. Compared to some other pure tools bets, they see more potential for him to be molded, but it still depends heavily on draft capital and situation. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00:00 Start 00:00:49 Ty Simpson 00:18:20 Haynes King 00:25:24 Carson Beck 00:36:48 FFPC 00:38:07 Roster Rescue 00:39:20 Sawyer Robertson 00:44:22 Cade Klubnik 00:56:36 Cole Payton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rich, Matt, and Garret kick off their 2026 rookie prospect reviews with the position that breaks the most hearts every year: quarterbacks. The group emphasizes how much draft capital and landing spot shape outcomes, but also why weak classes can create value pockets in Superflex, especially if a QB can buy fantasy points with rushing. They start at the top with Fernando Mendoza, presenting him as the cleanest profile in the class and the safest Superflex bet. The discussion centers on accuracy, ball placement, decision-making, and leadership, with a debate on ceiling. One view sees him living as a reliable QB1 or high-end QB2 type. The other argues he can climb higher if the team build around him hits and the offense keeps evolving. Next up is Garrett Nussmeier, framed as a tricky evaluation because the 2025 tape looks heavily impacted by injury, while the 2024 tape shows a much more live arm and a more confident, pro-style passer. The group keeps coming back to one key point: draft capital will tell the story. If he lands in the right range, he becomes a real swing worth taking in Superflex rookie drafts. They move into Drew Allar as the “looks the part” quarterback that coaches will want to develop. The upside is obvious in the frame and arm talent, but the concerns show up when the pocket collapses and the processing speeds up. The consensus is that he needs time, structure, and the right coaching situation to see if the tools translate. They then cover Diego Pavia, giving credit for competitiveness and production, but making it clear the size limitation creates a massive barrier to draft capital and long-term opportunity. For fantasy purposes, they frame it as the kind of player where any real playing-time window would likely be the sell window. They also hit Taylen Green as the ultimate “tools vs quarterbacking” prospect. The athletic profile is wild and the rushing upside creates fantasy intrigue, but the concerns are about processing, mechanics, and whether he can consistently function as an NFL passer. The takeaway is that he is a pure swing pick, not a stable bet. They close with Luke Altmyer, who gets credit for playing on time, protecting the ball, and being coach-friendly, but is framed as a capped-ceiling profile for fantasy. Even if he sticks in the NFL as a backup type, the upside is limited compared to the quarterbacks who can generate fantasy points with rushing. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00:00 Start 00:06:51 Fernando Mendoza 00:26:00 Garrett Nussmeier 00:39:26 Drew Allar 00:49:27 FFPC 00:51:16 Roster Rescue is BACK! 00:52:19 Diego Pavia 01:02:07 Taylen Green 01:14:27 Luke Altmyer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Garret Price and Andrew Mott shift from Combine takeaways into the real domino period: NFL free agency. The focus is how quickly dynasty value can swing based on tags, cap space, and surprise landing spots. The quarterback section starts with Daniel Jones as the cleanest call to return. From there, they frame Kirk Cousins as more of a bridge or depth option than a true long-term starter, with potential fits depending on how a team wants to handle the next rookie class. The most discussed “swing” outcome is Malik Willis. They see logical scenarios where he lands in a spot that gives him a chance to start sooner rather than later, but they also push back on the idea that he becomes a franchise saver. The upside is real for fantasy. The long-term NFL outlook is still more uncertain. At running back, they spend time on the tension around Breece Hall, with the tag scenario creating downside risk for both fantasy managers and the player’s perceived freedom. Kenneth Walker is treated as more likely to stay put, but with enough uncertainty that it is worth tracking closely through the deadline. From there, the conversation turns to possible landing spots and role fits. Travis Etienne is one of the biggest pieces on the board if he changes teams. Rachaad White gets framed as a committee and depth type of option rather than a clear starter. Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allgeier, and JK Dobbins round out the “next tier” of backs who could become important depending on how a backfield is built and how much money a team is willing to spend. On the wide receiver side, they start with Alec Pierce as a clean field-stretcher fit for multiple teams. Mike Evans is the headliner name if the longtime situation finally changes, with a clear expectation that any move would be tied to chasing a title. They also run through veteran and role-based fits, including Wan’Dale Robinson, Romeo Doubs, Jauan Jennings, and Christian Kirk, with the key point being that teams with cap space and obvious needs can reshape the entire room quickly. They close the receiver discussion with Deebo Samuel and Rashid Shaheed, focusing on how either player could change an offense’s geometry depending on usage and price. At tight end, they highlight David Njoku as the kind of addition that can immediately upgrade an offense that needs a true middle-of-the-field presence. Isaiah Likely is treated as a talented option whose market may not be as hot as fantasy managers expect. Cade Otton is discussed as a solid, reliable tight end piece who can fit multiple teams without needing to be the entire passing game. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 01:23 Daniel Jones 02:10 Kirk Cousins 05:56 Malik Willis 10:14 Breece Hall 12:50 Kenneth Walker 17:34 Travis Etienne 19:09 Rachaad White 20:25 Rico Dowdle 24:35 Tyler Allgeier 28:06 JK Dobbins 29:22 Alec Pierce 32:59 Mike Evans 35:55 Wan'Dale Robinson 38:04 Romeo Doubs 39:12 Jauan Jennings 41:32 Christian Kirk 43:26 Deebo Samuel & Rashid Shaheed 47:26 David Njoku 48:40 Isaiah Likely 50:08 Cade Otton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jagger May and Andrew Mott are back with a post-Combine check-in on who helped themselves and who created new concerns. Their main point is consistent throughout the episode: testing is not the whole evaluation, but bad numbers and bad interview moments can matter a lot more than a great 40. At running back, the conversation keeps coming back to how thin the class feels behind Jeremiyah Love. Mike Washington Jr. is the testing standout they spend the most time on, while Emmett Johnson is the most disappointing result, turning “interesting traits” into a much tougher projection based on how the numbers landed. At quarterback, they treat Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier as winners mostly because they did what they needed to do on the field and in interviews. On the other side, Diego Pavia is the clear cautionary tale of how quickly interviews can tank confidence. At wide receiver, the biggest storyline is Makai Lemon, where the discussion is less about tape and more about the Combine week optics. They also note that some players did not test, which naturally creates skepticism until pro days. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00:00 Start 00:07:19 WR Winners and Losers 00:18:04 QB Winners and Losers 00:28:16 RB Winners and Losers 00:34:35 EDGE Winners and Losers 00:41:06 Offensive Linemen Winners and Losers 00:45:47 TE Winners and Losers 00:51:37 Conspiracy Theory Time 00:53:48 IDL Winners and Losers 00:55:05 LB Winners and Losers 00:56:51 DB Winners and Losers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Garret Price and Andrew Mott go full “Frankenstein mode” for Combine week, building the ultimate 2026 wide receiver by assigning one prospect to each key trait. The only rule is you can only use each player once, which forces some gamesmanship as they decide where each name has the most value. They start with Malachi Fields as the easy winner for size, the receiver who “looks like WR1 getting off the bus.” For pure long speed, both land on Brenen Thompson, the track-speed bet who could be among the fastest in the class. For yards after catch, they give the nod to Omar Cooper, emphasizing open-field playmaking and how that trait translates across offensive systems. When it comes to hands, they agree Makai Lemon brings the best mix of reliability and highlight-level catches. Route running is the one category they treat as a clear lock, selecting Jordan Tyson as the best separator and tempo-based technician in the class. Contested catch goes to Denzel Boston, largely because of strength through contact and the ability to win at the catch point with “vice grip” hands. For the tougher “vibes” category, IQ, they settle on Skyler Bell, a player they credit for constantly being in the right place, understanding scramble drill rules, and winning with savvy rather than pure athletic dominance. Pedigree goes to Carnell Tate, based on recruiting profile and the full “pipeline” context. For burst and early acceleration, they choose KC Concepcion, with a quick note that measurements and speed will be huge for how the NFL views the role. They close physicality with Chris Bell, describing a tank-built receiver who plays with real edge and contact tolerance. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 01:40 WR Size 03:48 Speed 05:41 YAC 07:48 Hands 10:33 Route Running 12:21 Contested Catch 14:18 Football IQ 19:27 Pedigree 21:41 Burst 23:29 Physicality Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rich Dotson and Garret Price are back for one of their most popular yearly shows: the real value of rookie draft picks. With the Combine running and rookie drafts right around the corner, they break down where picks actually hit, where they turn into roster cloggers, and why “not worth a first” is meaningless unless you say which first. Garret lays out the scoring tiers they track to define outcomes. A “hit” requires at least one Tier 1 season, or multiple Tier 2 seasons, with thresholds adjusted by position. Quarterbacks need top six seasons to count as Tier 1, running backs and wide receivers need top 12, and tight ends need top three. The point is simple: if a player never reaches at least Tier 2, that pick never truly helped your starting lineup. After adding the 2024 class to the spreadsheet, they call out early hits already logged, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Drake Maye, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Bo Nix, while noting plenty of names still need time to prove it. The biggest takeaway is the stability at the very top. Since 2018, the 1.01 has a 100% hit rate in their sample, and top four picks hit about three quarters of the time, with even more value when you include “mid” outcomes. After that, the first round becomes far less differentiated, and they point out an odd recent trend where 1.09 to 1.12 has slightly better results than 1.05 to 1.08. They dig into a possible reason: quarterbacks often get pushed into that 1.05 to 1.08 range in Superflex, and non-elite rookie quarterbacks are harder to “hit” by their definition. The broader lesson stays the same. Outside the top tier, it often makes sense to trade down, tier up into a proven veteran, or move picks into stronger future classes. They hammer the second round value drop. Once you get into the 2.01 to 2.12 range, the hit rate collapses, and third round picks become true dart throws. Their advice for contenders is aggressive: if you can turn a first into multiple years of a proven producer, that is usually the winning bet because many late firsts never become lineup players. Garret also tests a theory about late rookie drafts. If you trade late seconds and thirds for multiple fourths and fifths, the position most likely to return value is running back. Late-round running backs can become “ships to shore” quickly when injuries hit, and that short window can still flip into future seconds. They add that tight ends are often pushed down by the community chasing wide receivers, which can create value pockets in the late second and early third. The data behind “hits” and why the top mattersWhat the hit rates say about trading picksWhy second round picks are the “Ponzi scheme”Late draft strategy: load up on running backs and tight ends. 00:00 Start 00:30 Why Rookie Picks Are Often Overvalued 03:23 Hit/Mid/Miss Definitions 10:42 Top Picks Hit Rates 16:21 Mid/Late Firsts & Second/Third Round Drop-Off 27:43 Trade Firsts for Proven Assets & Late-Round Targets 37:27 FFPC 38:46 2026 Rookie Class Outlook Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices