Small Reactor, Big Price

We have an unusual episode today. One, because of its length (1 hour 40 minutes), and two, because I’m the guest. Joined by Aidan Morrison as acting host, I talk about a topic of intense interest to me: the Darlington SMR project in Ontario, Canada. I’ve been critical of this SMR project, which recently received its final investment decision, by calling for a pivot to CANDU reactors at the site.I use this episode to break down all my reasons for being critical, and to concede ground to this bold SMR project where earned. This is not the first place I’ve shared my reasoning (media interview here, LinkedIn post there), but it is the most in-depth.If you have time to listen to the full thing, I promise you will leave quite knowledgeable about the ambitious and capable Ontario nuclear sector, which I’ve studied and engaged with for years.Prompting this episode was the OPG’s final investment decision on the SMR and the revelation of its eye-watering cost estimates. I break down the $4.5 billion price tag for the first unit, the expected learning that will take place, and share why this represents not just a technical and economic challenge, but a strategic mistake that could undermine Canada’s competitive advantage in nuclear power. From the massive excavation challenges of burying a reactor ten stories underground to the national security risks of abandoning proven CANDU technology for American designs, I hope to share some of the hard truths behind the SMR hype.Read extended shownotes on Substack.Watch now on YouTube.

This week, we return to nuclear power. Specifically, nuclear construction and “learning curves.” It is intuitive that doing something over and over makes you better at it. In industry, this means driving down costs and timelines and boosting efficiencies. In many industries, the truth of learning curves is readily apparent. However, in Western nuclear construction it has been largely absent for decades. Robbie Stewart, CTO of Alva Energy, joins me to dissect why the nuclear industry struggles with what other industries take for granted, and highlight a few cases in nuclear that managed to buck this trend. From France's standardized reactor fleet to China's recent AP1000 acceleration, we explore the prerequisites for nuclear construction learning and why it takes more than just good engineering.We discuss:Wright's Law and its application (or misapplication) to nuclear constructionWhy nuclear is fundamentally different from factory-floor manufacturingThe three categories of nuclear learning: fixing mismanagement, technology insertion, and construction optimizationStatistical analysis of what drives successful learning rates in nuclear programsFrance's P4 series and South Korea's OPR-1000 as learning success storiesChina's dramatic improvements in AP1000 construction times through supply chain masteryThe critical role of integrated project management and utility ownershipPrerequisites for learning: standardized design, sequential builds, and institutional commitmentWhy inter-site learning is harder than intra-site learningThe developer model as a potential solution for geographic learning constraintsOntario's SMR program as a test case for modern nuclear learningRead extended shownotes on Substack

This week, I’m joined by Kyle Chan, author of the recent NYTimes Op-Ed titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant." Exploring the intense competitive pressures of Chinese “involution capitalism” and America’s fixation on shareholder returns, we discuss America’s waning relevance in global technology and manufacturing, and how critical choices made now could shape the economic and geopolitical landscape for decades.Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, and the author of High Capacity.

This week, I’m joined by Patrick McGee, a journalist and author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company. I recommended this book on LinkedIn as a MUST READ, and stand by it.Apple in China is an in-depth corporate history which examines one of the most important symbioses in economic history. It explains Apple's meteoric rise in market capitalization/revenue, as well as China's newfound dominance in precision manufacturing. McGee argues convincingly that neither outcome would have happened without this relationship.To back up this extraordinary claim, McGee closely maps how Apple systematically sent top engineers from around the world to train up hundreds of factories in China, pressed for demanding specifications at “ridiculously high yield,” and invested sums directly into China that made the post-WW2 Marshall Plan look small. The result? China now leads in 57 of 64 critical technologies, as measured by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, dominating everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.As Trump threatens iPhone-specific tariffs and Tim Cook promises impossible reshoring timelines, Apple finds itself captured by the very system it helped create. Having accidentally armed its greatest competitor, there is no clear pathway for the U.S. to regain the lead it helped China take. Find transcripts, extended shownotes, and more on our Substack.

Last week, U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders to accelerate nuclear power deployment:Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National SecurityReinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial BaseOrdering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory CommissionReforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of EnergyTo help us understand the implications of these executive orders, I was joined by Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure policy at the Foundation for American Innovation. We discuss the policy shifts needed to bridge political divides and streamline regulation as the U.S. grapples with rising energy demands driven by artificial intelligence and national security concerns. Are these executive orders enough? Is America’s nuclear resurgence is feasible, or merely rhetorical, amidst a competitive global landscape dominated by China and Russia?

This week, we look beyond the physical infrastructure supporting our lives to the owners taking over that infrastructure: asset managers. Brett Christophers, an author, professor, and economic geographer at Uppsala University in Sweden, joins me to explore the troubling transformation of infrastructure ownership in today's economy. From housing to energy to water, massive asset management firms like Blackstone and Brookfield have positioned themselves more and more between citizens and essential services, extracting wealth while taking minimal risk. Christophers explains how this shift from public to private control has reshaped our relationship with everyday infrastructure, particularly as we attempt to transform our energy supplies. He argues that the profit-driven approach of these financial giants is at odds with the public good, creating a system where even as things like renewable technology get cheaper, their deployment slows due to insufficient returns for investors.

In the wake of Europe's largest blackout in decades, commodities investor Alexander Stahel helps us to understand the physics of power grids, and how Spain's celebrated renewable transition became its Achilles' heel. He introduces the “hellbrise” phenomenon—excessive, rather than too little, renewable generation—as he considers the role of grid inertia in preventing minor disruptions from cascading into failures in mere seconds. Spanish energy policy isn’t the first time that green idealism has brushed over the fundamental requirements of reliable electricity, and it is unlikely to be the last. But it has certainly provided a stark example of the dangers that await such an oversight.

This week, we cover the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula. Guillem Sanchis Ramirez, a Spanish nuclear engineer and advocate, walks us through the event that plunged over 50 million people into powerlessness and the power grid on which it happened. We cover Spain’s precarious dance with renewable energy, its political resistance to nuclear power, possible paths forward for the country’s energy supply, and our essential human reliance on stable electrical systems.Note: This interview was recorded on April 30, 2025, still in the midst of the story’s rapid development.

This week, we take a break from nuclear power to talk about larger systems: those of Planet Earth. Professor Andy Knoll, renowned Harvard geologist and author of A Brief History of Earth, reveals how life itself has shaped Earth's chemistry, climate, and geology. From the oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere to the potential colonization of Mars, we explore the constant and delicate dance between life and the planet.Read extended shownotes on Substack.

This week, we talk High Temperature Gas Reactors, or HTGRs, with a Decouple favorite: reactor designer and nuclear historian Nick Touran (What Is Nuclear | X). From the first conceptual sketch of an HTGR in wartime labs to today’s revival by players like X-energy and China’s fast-moving reactor fleet, we dissect what makes HTGRs unique—both in engineering promise and the difficulties that have long haunted their success. With helium cooling, TRISO fuel, and ambitions beyond electricity into process heat and industrial decarbonization, HTGRs may be poised for a comeback. But will history repeat itself, or finally break the cycle?Read longer show notes and support Decouple on Substack.