How Germany’s upcoming coalition and uncertainty from abroad could drive M&A

Aurelia Seidlhofer, Mergermarket’s Munich-based senior reporter joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the outlook for dealmaking in Germany and Europe as a whole, including:How US policies could push European M&A and potentially create pan-European championsHow CDU campaign points like lowering energy prices and investing in infrastructure could boost dealmaking in GermanyWhy German companies may look at buying US companies, while Germany and Europe at large may simultaneously become more critical of US investments at homeWhich big assets are already in the pipeline, such as TenneT GermanyAll this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Troy Hooper, Mergermarket’s Los Angeles-based editor, and Cristiano Dalla Bona, Mergermarket’s New York-based senior ECM reporter, join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the outlook for dealmaking in the sector, including:How inexpensive, open-source AI platforms, like DeepSeek, are opening up opportunities for dealmaking and potential criminal activityHow the rapid developments in AI affect buyers’ needs and shape dealmakingWhy buyers in cybersecurity are targeting smaller acquisitions rather than megadealsWhich IPOs could arise in the near future, including unicorns like Orca Security and WizAll this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Yiqing Wang, Mergermarket’s Managing Editor for APAC, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the overall mood is optimistic, despite the risks of a new trade war.When could DeepSeek, the low-cost artificial intelligence (AI) player, seek financing?Has Nippon Steel [TYO:5401] thrown in the towel in its battle to buy US Steel yet?What are the latest developments in the takeover battle for Fuji Soft?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Auri Aittokallio, Mergermarket’s head of Nordics and assistant editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why a new space race between the US and China is igniting deal flow in Europe.How will increased spending by members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) impact companies in Europe?What is driving a modest recovery in M&A volumes in the sector?If the trajectory continues, what kind of deals will be likely to see?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast

Reuben Miller, Mergermarket’s global chief regulatory editor, based in Washington DC, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the multi-fold impact of tariffs on dealmaking.China and the US are currently circling each other like fighters. Why does he see this as “a delicate dance”?Could Trump’s threat of tariffs on allies and competitors be a catalyst for demand for US manufacturing assets?Are the threats a negotiating position to gain concessions or a real statement of intent?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast, which was recorded on Tuesday 4 February.

While momentum from deal volumes in the second half of 2024 is expected to continue into 2025, there remains uncertainty and a lingering “wait and see” approach while the impact of certain policies under President Donald Trump, like tariffs, are still unknown. Sources also anticipate more megadeals this year as the US moves away from the antitrust environment that stopped deals, like the Kroger and Albertsons merger, for example.In addition, new consumer trends favoring health-conscious snacking and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic could change the shape of M&A targets, exemplified in Ferrero Group’s recent acquisition of Power Crunch.Brian Yue, Mergermarket’s New York-based consumer and retail reporter, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss the outlook for dealmaking in the sector this year, including:How the rise of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic could impact food & beverage dealsHow underlying consumer trends towards health & wellness will drive dealmakingHow Trump’s policies could impact the international food & beverage supply chain and labor forceAll this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

Azul’s non-binding proposal to merge with Gol to face antitrust challenge Trump’s interventionist rhetoric hangs over Mexican marketOne of the key ongoing deals in Latin America is designed to enhance the aviation industry in Brazil. Airline Azul entered a non-binding agreement to merge with its troubled peer Gol earlier this month. If the deal goes ahead, it will face tough antitrust scrutiny.Thiago Barrozo Mergermarket’s Latin America Editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the deal is so important at a time when the Brazilian currency is down against the dollar and interest rates are rising.Given the tough macro-economic environment, what other deals could we see in Brazil?How have US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs against Mexico affected dealmakers' moods in that country?How are deal volumes in Latin America?All this and more in this week's Dealcast

Dealmakers in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are cautiously optimistic about M&A pipelines in 2025, with energy providers for data centres likely to be a significant source of activity.The rise in artificial intelligence (AI) is driving strong demand for data centres. Behind the scenes, data centre owners are cutting deals with utilities to supply renewable energy – and these energy providers in turn need to seek significant amounts of private capital to help fund the investments. Spain’s Iberdrola is likely to be a major player in this trend. Its new data centres business already has a valuation above EUR 2bn and it is seeking investment of up to EUR 10bn in the area.Rupert Cocke, Mergermarket’s senior features editor for EMEA, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss this trend, along with the ongoing consolidation of the European asset management space and other market developments.Adnoc’s ongoing takeover of Covestro was the largest deal of last year. Will Covestro still be a source of activity after the deal closes in 2H25?Interest rates are expected to fall this year. What does that mean for private equity dealmaking?Europe accounted for more than 90% of EMEA deal value in 2024. How can dealmakers drive more pan-EMEA M&A by putting sovereign capital from the Middle East to work?

The US’ National Football League has recently enacted a new game plan – the league passed a resolution in August to allow private equity investment into team franchises for the first time. With the average team valued at approximately USD 5bn, the new initiative presents big opportunities for investors.The new resolution is playing into an even larger trend: the creation of a new asset class of sports investing, with PE investments into the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins leading the charge. Furthermore, deal structures have opened up opportunities to own broadcasting rights, real estate, and infrastructure via the stadiums themselves.Tom Cane, Mergermarket’s US-based funds editor, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss how the NFL’s playbook will impact investors, including a look into: How do firms get the necessary pre-approval to buy stakes in different teams and how much can they own?Which funds are already involved in the NFL and how have those deals come together?How have other sports leagues like the MLB and NBA allowed private investments?What’s on the horizon, including an interest in investing in women’s sports and college teams?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.

European dealmakers need to consider national-security concerns, state subsidies to make deals happenTrump’s second term likely to accelerate protectionist trendsAdvisors and consultants who want to help their European clients access Chinese capital need to work hard on narratives that emphasise industrial use cases while downplaying any national security concerns.The continent badly needs investment to rebuild its manufacturing base. At the same time, Chinese investors are thinking about deploying capital overseas to sidestep an acceleration of protectionist trends throughout the world when President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House next month.There are two main hurdles to clear to make these cross-border transactions happen. Dealmakers need to show that bringing Chinese capital into European manufacturing is safe from a national-security perspective; while downplaying the risks of state subsidies in the Asian giant distorting home-grown markets.John West, Mergermarket’s managing editor for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Luuk de Klein, head of analytics (EMEA), join Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss why the art of the defensive deal is likely to be a big theme of Trump’s second term throughout the world.https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004138166What are the implications for global markets of a likely block on Nippon Steel’s [TYO:5402] USD 15bn takeover of US Steel [NYSE:X]?https://mergermarket.ionanalytics.com/content/1004148730Has Europe’s automotives industry been able to access Chinese capital as it struggles with the transition to electric vehicles (EVs)?Why is the fine print of any incoming tariffs so important for any dealmakers considering defensive transactions in the US?All this and more in this week’s Dealcast