Central banks keep an eye on the Middle East

The first wave of earnings reports suggest that companies do not expect the Middle East conflict to linger, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "Companies are saying that they are impacted, but the outlook is that this might not take forever," Christian says. "The bar is still quite high for companies to deliver." Meanwhile, none of the big central banks are expected to adjust interest rates this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. But markets are beginning to factor the Iran conflict into rate forecasts, with the possibility of a slower path of Fed rate cuts and a potential ECB rate increase down the road.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Earnings season is underway in the US, and the focus will shift this week from financial services to big technology companies, notes Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. Earnings expectations are high, and that “makes disappointment possible, so some caution is wise”, Markus says, but that is “unlikely to disrupt the underlying positive sentiment."Markets continue to move on headlines around the Iran conflict, but even a workable peace solution might not lead to an immediate normalisation of trading activity. “It will take a long time to get back to normal," Markus says. In the week ahead, "markets are likely to pay attention to earnings releases... and depending on what happens, Iran developments."Over the longer term, the Iran conflict may have a lasting impact on the way the world views energy supplies. "This situation shows how dangerous dependencies can be," Markus says. “The Iran crisis has underlined these dangers, especially on limited resources like hydrocarbon imports and governments' limited ability to stop domestic energy price spikes."For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Markets bounced higher when the Iran ceasefire took place, but the situation remains uncertain, and many assets are likely to remain volatile, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "What we are probably getting here is a fragile stabilisation, not a clean resolution”, Jacky says. “So even if the ceasefire holds on paper, markets will still want proof that things are working in practice.” He says oil prices are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels until markets see practical evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, in the form of things like tanker traffic and insurance availability.Central banks are likely to remain cautious while they wait to see what the inflation picture looks like as energy prices feed through the economy, Jacky says, though that will not necessarily mean a U-turn on policy.Meanwhile, corporate earnings season for the first quarter is about to kick off, and Jacky says that what companies have to say about their businesses may be at least as important to markets as whether they hit their targets. "Going into this Q1 earnings season, I think the numbers still look pretty decent. Expectations for revenue and profit growth are still holding up pretty well at this point."For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Oil prices will remain volatile as long as the outcome of the Middle East conflict is unclear, says Dr Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s emerging markets CIO. “The best way to frame oil right now is that we are in a market dominated by headlines, but not by conviction”, Jacky says. “Our sense is that oil is still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium, and the market is not prepared to take that premium out unless they see something more than a proposal on paper.”The fallout from the conflict will also likely extend to assets beyond energy. “For equities, the key message is that lower valuations alone do not guarantee safety”, Jacky says, noting that there could be a divergence in performance between companies that can pass on price increases and those that are less able. In the week ahead, Jacky says that data on the mood amongst consumers will be important to watch. “I would watch macro releases mainly for signs that the geopolitical shock is starting to leak into consumer behaviour.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy markets could swing on any headline, but at the same time we’re mindful that geopolitical shocks historically tend to cause short-lived market turbulence.”A series of policy decisions from central banks last week meanwhile suggested that they will be keeping an eye on economic data before making any moves to cut rates. “Overall, it seems fair to say that central banks are likely to stay cautious for a while yet”, Markus says. In the week ahead, he says he’ll be watching for European data on the mood among consumers, and for the results of Treasury auctions in the US.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Markets remain focused on the Middle East, and there are risks that the dislocations in energy prices could linger even if the fighting soon cools, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The oil disruption actually may be much longer with the markets than the physical conflict", Deepak says, noting that oil transport has been a major concern, but that production facilities in the region have also been harmed. The inflationary pressures of energy prices are likely to affect central banks as well, Deepak says, with decisions due this week from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. "There has already been a sharp repricing in Fed rate expectations", Deepak says, with fewer rate cuts expected in the near term. He also said that US bond auctions will be important to watch this week, as well as movements in the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The week ahead will include a wealth of economic data, though most of that could be drowned out by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "The Middle East will remain the dominant narrative driver for day-to-day price action, but this week's economic data provides key cross-checks on whether we are facing a pure inflation shock, a growth shock, or both," Jacky says.He also notes that history has shown that the impacts of even major conflicts on markets tend to be fleeting. “Geopolitical events have rarely had a lasting effect on global stock markets unless they had significant economic impact. So far, our outlook for equity markets remains positive,” Jacky says, pointing to safe haven demand for government bonds, and the possibility of higher gold prices and a firmer US dollar.But even if economic data won’t be top of mind this week, Jacky points to some important reports due, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. “We think the Fed could stay on hold in the next few months and monitor closely the inflation trends.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Strong results from major technology hyperscalers recently did not make much of an impression on stock markets, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "We believe there's still long-term confidence in the big technology platforms, particularly around AI and cloud. But the scale of investment required to sustain that leadership has risen sharply", Jacky says. “The mood, I would say, is constructive but disciplined, with markets looking for clearer evidence that today's investment cycle delivers durable returns.”As for this week’s important economic data, “U.S. non-farm payrolls sit at the top of the list this week. That's the data point that really anchors the market's view on the Fed”, Jacky says. He also points to ongoing developments in trade policy as important to watch.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

The US Supreme Court ruled that a broad swath of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but there is still much to sort out after the decision, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas.“It's not the time to really change your asset allocation or portfolio construction, because I feel that a lot of this was already sort of baked into the market reaction,” Deepak says. “I don't think last Friday's decision really rules out or addresses the issue of potential refunds, which is what the market really wants more clarity on. But if made, those refunds could total around $170 billion. So there might be some uncertainty there.”In the week ahead, some key earnings reports are likely to get a lot of attention, Deepak says. “The bulk of the fourth-quarter earnings is behind us, but still some of the key players are going to be reporting this week” he says, noting some major technology names. But for the year ahead, “The key question is going to be whether the trend of the strongest earnings growth that we have seen in the technology sector stays with us in 2026.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s Head of the CIO Office and CIO for Sustainability, joins this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly Podcast to highlight the forces shaping markets during Chinese New Year.Markus notes that while near‑term data releases will attract attention, the more important focus is China’s ongoing structural transition. As he puts it, “it isn’t true that China is stagnating – it’s still transforming very fast.” He points to the country’s rapid expansion in areas like clean energy as evidence of this broader shift.The episode also looks at AI-driven market volatility, with Markus emphasising that shifting sentiment may cause temporary tremors but that AI remains “a structurally positive story”.Finally, Markus highlights the key releases he’s watching this week—from the FOMC Minutes to inflation data across major economies and the first February PMIs, offering early insight into global momentum.For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121