Inside the PLA’s Accelerating Modernization: A Conversation with John Culver

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, John Culver argues that two seemingly contradictory trends define China’s military this year: Xi Jinping’s sweeping purge of senior PLA leaders and the PLA’s rapid transformation into a far more lethal, joint-capable force. He notes unprecedented vacancies on the Central Military Commission and across theater commands—suggesting corruption is the excuse, not the cause—as Xi prioritizes loyalty and faster progress toward his ambitious reform goals. While 2027 isn’t an “invasion deadline,” Culver says the PLA is racing to meet its centennial benchmarks, with September’s parade showcasing a growing nuclear triad, serious investments in undersea warfare, and expanding unmanned aircraft. He cautions that any U.S.-created “hellscape” around Taiwan can be mirrored by China, which can produce equipment that is combat relevant in the Western Pacific at industrial scale. On gray-zone pressure, he casts China’s Coast Guard as a paramilitary tool and says its ability to run a sustained blockade would hinge on complex command-and-control that it hasn’t yet demonstrated in military exercises. Ultimately, Culver emphasizes that there is much about the PLA that remains unknown from the outside as Xi Jinping purposely keeps information opaque. This episode was recorded on October 15, 2025. John Culver is a nonresident senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings. Prior to retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2020, he served since 1985 as an analyst and manager on China, with a particular focus on the People’s Liberation Army. From 2015 to 2018, Culver served as national intelligence officer for East Asia (NIO-EA). He was a founding member of the CIA’s Senior Analytic Service, was in the Senior Intelligence Service, and was a recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, and the William L. Langer Award for extraordinary achievement in the CIA’s analytic mission.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Mohammed Alsudairi and Dr. Andrea Ghiselli join us to discuss their newly released book Narratives of Sino-Middle Eastern Futures. They challenge prevailing narratives that frame China’s engagement in the Middle East primarily through the lens of U.S.–China rivalry and offer alternative perspectives by drawing on extensive Arabic and Chinese-language sources to highlight how regional actors themselves interpret and shape their relationships with Beijing. Drawing on Saudi Arabia and Syria as the two core case studies in their book, they show how regional  perceptions of China diverge sharply depending on various factors such as national capabilities and alignment with the United States. The conversation also examines China’s diplomacy toward Iran, its muted response to the Israel–Iran conflict, and why both Chinese and regional leaders prefer to limit Beijing’s security role. Dr. Alsudairi and Dr. Ghiselli conclude that the future of Sino–Middle Eastern relations will likely reflect cautious continuity—marked by pragmatic engagement and mutual restraint.   Dr. Alsudairi is a Lecturer in Politics and International Relations of the Arabic Speaking World, Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, at the Australian National University. Prior to his appointment, he was a postdoctoral research fellow at the Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Hong Kong, working on a project examining the intersections between religion and infrastructure in the context of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Since 2015, he oversaw the development of the Asian Studies Program at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. More recently in 2022, he was awarded a research fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation to work on his upcoming book manuscript.  Dr. Ghiselli is a Lecturer in International Politics in the Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology of the University of Exeter. He is also non-resident research fellow with the TOChina Hub and the Head of Research for its ChinaMed Project. He has previously worked in China at Fudan University for nine years. You can find an open access version of their book here.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ching Kwan Lee joins us to discuss her newly released book Forever Hong Kong: A Global City’s Decolonization Struggle. She reframes the 2019 Hong Kong protests not merely as a fight for democracy, but as the culmination of a two-decade decolonization struggle that sought to redefine the city’s identity, economy, and society. Dr. Lee first explains how Hong Kong experienced double colonization - first under Britain, then under Beijing - each system of rule justified through race, from colonial difference to China’s coercive sameness. Dr. Lee also explores Beijing’s contradictory impulses toward Hong Kong—wanting the city open enough to serve as a global hub yet controlled enough to prevent it from inspiring resistance on the mainland. She explains how this tension led to the imposition of the National Security Law and draws parallels to China’s approaches in Tibet and Xinjiang, while reflecting on what Hong Kong’s experience means for Taiwan and the fading credibility of “One Country, Two Systems.” Her insights in the book challenge familiar narratives and place Hong Kong’s struggle within the wider global conversations about authoritarianism, resistance, and decolonization in the 21st century.  Dr. Ching Kwan Lee is a professor in the department of Sociology at UCLA. She is a sociologist working at the intersection of global and comparative issues, including labor, political sociology, global development, decolonization, comparative ethnography, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and Africa. She has published three multiple award-winning monographs on contemporary China, including Gender and the South China Miracle, Against the Law, and The Specter of Global China. The trilogy of Chinese capitalism was written through the lens of labor and working-class experiences. Her most recent publications include a short format book titled Hong Kong: Global China’s Restive Frontier, and two co-edited volumes — Take Back Our Future: an Eventful Sociology of the Hong Kong Umbrella Movement and The Social Question in the 21st Century: A Global View. Forever Hong Kong: A Global City’s Struggle for Decolonization is her newest monograph.

In this joint episode of Pekingology and the ChinaPower Podcast, CSIS Freeman Chair Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin and co-host CSIS China Power Project Deputy Director and Fellow Brian Hart are joined by Dan Wang to discuss his new book, Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future. The conversation unpacks China’s monumentalism in its grand engineering projects, the advantages and consequences of building at such scale, China’s push to lead in key technologies, Beijing’s social engineering efforts, and much more. Dan Wang is a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover History Lab. Previously, he was a fellow at the Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and a lecturer at Yale University’s MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies. From 2017 to 2023, he worked in China as the technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, based in Hong Kong, Beijing, and then Shanghai. For more from Dan Wang, please read his latest piece in Foreign Affairs - The Real China Model: Beijing’s Enduring Formula for Wealth and Power.

In this special episode, listen to one of CSIS’s newest podcasts, Echonomics, that investigates how past economic events in Asia continue to impact U.S. policy today.  In the 1980s, Japanese companies were snapping up prime New York real estate and Japanese cars lined both Main Street and Wall Street, spiking economic anxiety in the U.S. As a result, Americans and politicians targeted the country, through the destruction of Japanese-made products and heavy tariffs.  Today, China finds itself in a similar situation.  Ambassador Carla Hills, Bill Reinsch, Craig Allen, Kim Menke, and Don Morrissey discuss the similarities and differences between the anti-Japanese sentiment of the 1980s and the anti-Chinese sentiment of today.  Check out other episodes here.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Yanzhong Huang joins us to examine China’s growing influence over the global pharmaceutical industry and the risks it poses for the United States. Dr. Huang explains how China evolved from a low-cost manufacturer of chemical inputs to a comprehensive pharmaceutical power producing advanced drugs and playing an important role in global pharmaceutical innovation. He highlights areas of acute U.S. dependence, from antibiotics and vitamins to critical precursor chemicals, and recounts how the Covid-19 pandemic underscored the vulnerability of U.S. supply chains. Dr. Huang explains the highly interdependent nature of global drug supply chains and notes that even if countries attempt to build alternative production capacity outside of China, they would still rely on Chinese suppliers at certain stages of the supply chain and would need years to replicate China’s integrated industrial ecosystems. He concludes with an assessment of U.S. policy options for building resilience, including targeted de-risking of key medicines and diversifying suppliers among trusted partners.  Dr. Yanzhong Huang is a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he directs the Global Health Governance roundtable series. He is also a professor and director of global health studies at Seton Hall University's School of Diplomacy and International Relations, where he developed the first academic concentration among U.S. professional international affairs schools that explicitly addresses the security and foreign policy aspects of health issues. He is the founding editor of Global Health Governance: The Scholarly Journal for the New Health Security Paradigm.  Dr. Huang is the author of multiple books and reports, including most recently The COVID-19 Pandemic and China’s Global Health Leadership, published in 2022.

In this special episode, listen to one of CSIS’s newest podcasts, Echonomics, that investigates how past economic events in Asia continue to impact U.S. policy today.  After decades of negotiations, promises to open its markets, and convincing the Chinese people of the country’s next step, China officially joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Wendy Cutler, Ambassador Xiangchen Zhang, and Bill Reinsch discuss why China and the world wanted the country to join the WTO and why many have come to regret it.  Check out other episodes here.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ms. Mona Yacoubian and Mr. Tuvia Gering join us to unpack the latest escalation between Israel and Iran and explore how China is navigating this evolving conflict. They begin by situating the conflict in the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7 attack, which triggered a series of strikes by Iranian-backed militias that eventually led to direct Israel-Iran military confrontations. Ms. Yacoubian outlines how Israeli strikes were timed around a perceived window of Iranian vulnerability and rising concerns over Iran’s nuclear enrichment levels. Mr. Gering describes a significant paradigm shift in Israeli security doctrine after October 7, and the belief that Iranian threats, both nuclear and conventional, have necessitated preemptive action, especially with the current Trump administration’s backing. Ms. Yacoubian highlights the limited material support to Iran from Russia, North Korea, and China, and noted China’s preference to prioritize regional economic ties over military entanglement. Mr. Gering delves into the mixed Chinese domestic debates on Iran and explores unconfirmed reports of potential Chinese arms transfers to Iran. Finally, they assess what these developments may mean for China’s long-term role in Middle East security, including the possibility of a new security architecture that could include both Israel and Iran, and how Iran’s strategic calculations may shift amid growing isolation. Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She has more than thirty years of experience working on the Middle East and North Africa, with a focus on conflict analysis, governance and stabilization challenges, and conflict prevention. She was previously vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), where she managed field programming in Iraq, Libya, and Tunisia as well as Washington, D.C.–based staff. In 2019, she served as executive director of the congressionally appointed Syria Study Group. From 2014 to 2017, Yacoubian served as deputy assistant administrator in the Middle East Bureau at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), where she had responsibility for programming across Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq. Captain (Res.) Tuvia Gering is a China analyst at Planet Nine, a Tel-Aviv and East Asia-based tech company, a visiting researcher at the Diane & Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), and a nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Israeli Chinese Media Center. Gering is the editor and author of Discourse Power on Substack, a newsletter covering leading Chinese perspectives on current affairs, and holds a BA in East Asian studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (summa cum laude) and an MPH in disaster and emergency management from Tel Aviv University (summa cum laude).

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Ms. Meia Nouwens and Ms. Veerle Nouwens join us to discuss key takeaways from the recent 2025 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. They start by discussing the significance of the dialogue as a high-level forum for discussion between governments on issues impacting Asian security and they highlight some of the major topics that countries repeatedly brought up throughout sessions, with cross-regional security, hybrid threats, and uncertainty in the international order as three of the most prominent. They unpack President Macron’s speech, who, they note, is the first European leader who has ever been invited to provide keynote remarks at the dialogue, and describe the emphasis he laid on Europe becoming a more active player in the Indo-Pacific region. Meia and Veerle also discuss the attendance from China’s side and point to the notable absence of Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun. They describe China’s messaging this year as less focused on the United States and instead with a greater emphasis on China’s relationships with regional partners. Similarly, they touch on the variety of current views of China they heard from regional countries during the dialogue, which ranged from viewing China as a cooperative partner, a challenger, and a competitor all to different extents. They describe U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s remarks and note they believe he succeeded in providing some reassurance to allies and underscored his emphasis that the U.S. can work more with partners in the region through increased forward deployment of troops, cooperation on defense industrial capabilities, and greater interoperability. Finally, Meia and Veerle describe what they heard from countries as shared challenges in the region that transcend boundaries and emphasized the consensus among many for the US and China to find ways to cooperate with each other despite their disagreements.     Ms. Meia Nouwens is a Senior Fellow for Chinese Security and Defense Policy. Meia’s expertise lies in Chinese cross-service defense analysis, China’s defense industry and innovation, as well as China’s regional strategic affairs and international relations. She leads IISS research on China’s Digital Silk Road, and was a co-lead of the China Security Project with the Mercator Institute for China Studies. Prior to commencing at IISS, she worked for the European External Action Service as a policy officer in Taipei, and as a trade analyst in the EU’s delegation to New Zealand. Meia holds a BA Hons in international relations and political science from Macquarie University, a master’s in international relations and diplomacy from Leiden University in conjunction with the Clingendael Institute, and an MPhil in modern Chinese studies from the University of Oxford and Peking University.  Ms. Veerle Nouwens is the Executive Director for IISS–Asia. Veerle’s expertise lies in Chinese foreign and defense policy, as well as the wider Indo-Pacific defense and security environment. She plays a key part in organizing the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, provides intellectual direction for IISS research on the Asia-Pacific, and works to enhance the profile of IISS across the region and beyond. Prior to joining the IISS, Veerle worked as Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, where she established the Indo-Pacific Programme and focused on China and Indo-Pacific security, and as a policy officer in the political section of the European Union Delegation in Singapore. Veerle holds a BA Hons in international relations and political science from Macquarie University, a Master’s in international relations and diplomacy from Leiden University in conjunction with the Clingendael Institute, an MPhil in modern Chinese studies from the University of Oxford and Peking University, and has attended a Mandarin semester programme at Tsinghua University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Ely Ratner joins us to discuss the case for a defense pact in the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Ratner starts by laying out his argument of why he thinks now is the right time for this type of agreement, discussing that the pact may serve to help maintain stability and deterrence in the region amidst China’s aggressive ambitions to reshape the global order. Dr. Ratner discusses the four countries, U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, that he believes the pact will include to start with and what their responsibilities will be within the pact. He shares that he envisions one of the main features of this partnership to be greater military integration among its members and to serve as a framework to garner the collective power of US allies and partners through a multilateral collective security agreement. Dr. Ratner discusses the viability of the pact and the reasons he thinks there are more opportunities for the pact to be successful now than there was in the past, including greater strategic alignment among the four partner countries, increased intra-Asian cooperation, and the growing reciprocity in U.S. alliances themselves. Dr. Ratner also considers how these different countries may respond to the idea of this pact, especially considering China may react badly to it. He underscores that Beijing is likely to behave badly regardless of this pact and states countries should not turn away from it because of Beijing. Finally, Dr. Ratner underscores how this pact would not require the U.S. to extend new commitments abroad and describes the continuing will and desire he sees from the Trump Administration to continue cooperation and strengthening of alliances in the region. Dr. Ely Ratner is a Principal at The Marathon Initiative, a bipartisan think tank dedicated to preparing the United States for an era of sustained great power competition. He served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs from 2021-2025. Prior to confirmation, he was the Director of the DoD China Task Force and a Senior Advisor to China to the Secretary of Defense. Before arriving at the Department of Defense, Dr. Ratner was the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where he was a member of the executive team and responsible for managing the Center’s research agenda and staff. Dr. Ratner served from 2015 to 2017 as the Deputy National Security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden, and from 2011 to 2012 in the office of Chinese and Mongolian affairs at the State Department. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.