Why haven't tariffs significantly damaged the economy?

Data on labor markets is incredibly important to policymakers, from state and federal legislators to the central bank and Treasury Department. But this data is often noisy or incomplete. A new BPEA paper draws on a large body of data sets going back to 1960 to develop a novel approach to studying labor markets that can help fill these gaps. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner talks to Ayşegül Şahin, one of the paper authors, about this new methodology. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The promise and peril of an AI-dominated future have dominated debates among economists, technologists, and policymakers in recent years. But even as the technology continues to evolve, considerable uncertainty remains about who is using AI and its impact on economies around the globe. In a new BPEA study, researchers conducted surveys in the U.S. and Europe to answer some of these questions and improve understanding of how and why different firms and workers are using AI. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Sanjay Patnaik, director of Brookings' Center on Regulation and Markets, speaks with two of the paper authors about their findings. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The tariff increases during the second Trump administration have been historic in their magnitude and scope, dwarfing even those from Trump's first term. Many feared that these tariffs would have dramatic impacts on the economy, but for the most part, the tariff impacts have been muted in the U.S. In a new BPEA study, Pablo Fajgelbaum and Amit Khandelwal document the effects of Trump's tariffs, what goals they have (or have not) accomplished, and where the costs have fallen. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, the authors speak with Kari Heerman, Brookings' director of trade and economic statecraft, about their findings and what to expect next. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

In 2010, the U.S. government projected that Americans would spend about $6 trillion dollars on health care, a little over 21% of GDP, in 2024. The actual amount spent was almost $1 trillion less. In fact, health care spending has been below projections almost every year since the early 2010s. In a new BPEA paper, "Has the U.S. bent the health care cost curve?" David Cutler and Lev Klarnet of Harvard University document this historic slowdown in spending, identify causes, and offer insight into whether this slowdown is a permanent adjustment to the trend. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, the authors speak with Richard Frank, director of Brookings' Center on Health Policy, about their study. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

China's real estate sector and infrastructure account for nearly one-third of economic demand in China. Plus, Chinese households allocate far more of their wealth to housing (nearly 70%) than households in other countries. So with the country's real estate sector entering its sixth year of adjustment, the implications for China and the rest of the world are growing. In a new BPEA paper, Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang look for clues on what will happen next in another recent real estate crisis, that of 1990s Japan. On today's episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Rogoff and Yang are interviewed about their findings by Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve has amassed roughly $6.6 trillion in assets, primarily in the form of Treasury securities and government-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities. Some, including President Trump's nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board, have suggested that the Fed should reduce the size of its balance sheet. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Darrell Duffie of Stanford University discusses how the central bank could achieve that goal and the pros and cons of ample reserves. Duffie is interviewed by David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 included funds for billions of dollars in federal investments in U.S.-based manufacturing, a major landmark in the history of America's industrial policy. While the full impacts of such a large bill will take years to reveal themselves, new research shows that firms have already responded to the CHIPS Act, with increases of roughly 15,000 new jobs in semiconductor production-related jobs attributable to the law. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Bilge Erten, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and Eric Verhoogen, authors of the new study, join Brookings Senior Fellow Mark Muro to discuss the employment impacts of the CHIPS Act already visible in the data as well as potential implications for future industrial policy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Monetary and fiscal policymakers use a variety of metrics to inform their decisions, but among the most important is the neutral rate of interest, also known by economists as "r*," a number that isn't directly observable. It represents the prevailing rate of interest in a smooth-running economy, and can be thought of as a target for policymakers. A new study presents a model of r* showing its decline in recent decades, as well as some potential signs that it may start creeping back upward in the coming years. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Wendy Edelberg speaks to the authors of the new study, Lukasz Rachel of University College of London, about his research and the implications for the economy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Throughout history, human work has been augmented by technology. But the emergence of artificial intelligence tools have led many to ask whether an unprecedented shift in how we work with technology is imminent. In a new study, researchers used modern AI tools to look back at the recent history of technology's impact on work—which jobs were replaced, which were enhanced, and who was likely to benefit—and then used that model to look at the potential impacts of AI going forward. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, two of the study's authors, Dimitris Papanikolaou and Lawrence D. W. Schmidt, join a conversation with Brookings Senior Fellow Molly Kinder to discuss their findings and the policy implications. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].

Fertility rates are falling in many countries around the world, with births failing to keep pace with deaths in nearly half of countries. Researchers believe it's possible that the world's population will start shrinking in the near future, and the effects could be catastrophic for institutions like Social Security. A new paper explores a novel explanation for this decline in fertility: The role of social comparison between parents. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel is joined by two of the authors to discuss the parental rat race, the high costs of education, and the impact of social media. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to [email protected].