#48 The Independent Thinker - Dave Iben on Contrarian Value, Commodities & Emerging Markets

The title “The Sculptor” is a play on a quote “every man can be the sculptor of his own mind”, as Jonathan Tepper is uniquely self-educated. Brought up in the slums of San Blas in Madrid, partly home-schooled, he made it to Oxford as a Rhodes scholar. Tepper is a relentless learner, endlessly curious and in love with investing – as he sees it, you never stop learning and every day is an opportunity to learn. In this episode we discuss his childhood, as recounted in his new book Shooting Up; how curiosity and a desire to learn can transform your opportunity set; and we trace his investment journey, from a start as a junior analyst at Steve Cohen’s firm, through building a highly successful sellside research company to setting up his investment firm Prevatt Capital. He explains why he holds just 16 idiosyncratic stocks and what he looks for in a successful investment. Tepper has had a fascinating journey and has achieved more in just over 40 years than many do in a life of investing – his is a wonderful story.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Terry Smith is the fund manager the professionals love tohate. A billionaire, he is in the third and most successful phase of a varied career. He trounced the index for years with a simple mantra of buy good companies, don’t overpay, do nothing. He thus built one of the largest funds inthe UK, made himself a fortune and moved to Mauritius. None of this made him popular with his peers and after 5 years of underperforming the S&P500 (his global fund has been mainly invested in the US) and underperforming the world index in 2025, there is quite a bit of schadenfreude around. Smith used to box for fun and you wouldn’t want to be on thewrong side of him, but in this interview, he reveals a side less often seen. He confesses to being unable to sleep at night, worrying about stocks and expresses an extreme desire to do the best for his clients. Smith has been incredibly successful as an analyst, as a public company CEO and now as a fundmanager. He attributes it to hard work and a strong desire to succeed, driven by his background – Smith comes from a poor family and grew up in a house with an outside toilet. He is frustrated with his recent performance but is resolutethat he has the right approach and will prevail eventually. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

James Anderson, former Senior Partner of Baillie Gifford and early backer of Elon Musk, now runs the Lingotto Innovation Strategy with Morgan Samet. I interviewed them in front of a live audience at Italian Tech Week, hence this shorter than usual episode. We discussed AI of course, China’s role in a portfolio as a leader in many areas of tech but with associated geopolitical risk, the future of autonomous driving, what it means to be a long term investor in innovation, investing in everything from start-ups to Nvidia and in between including Space X, flying cars and much more. I really enjoyed this conversation and I hope you will too – let us know if the shorter format is a better option for busy commuters. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Tom Gayner is the CEO of Markel Group and has run its investment portfolio for 35 years, beating the index by an astonishing 1.5% pa. This makes him one of the most successful capital allocators in the US stockmarket, yet he is under the radar. He explains why he holds 140 stocks, although the top 40 represent 80% of the value; why there are so few imitators of the insurance/equity and business investment strategy so successfully deployed by Berkshire and Markel; the simple way to analyse an insurance business; what he has learned from being on the boards of Graham Holdings with Warren Buffett and on the Coca Cola Company; and one secret of Warren Buffett’s success which you likely will not have heard before. Tom Gayner is anything but a plodder, but his thoughtful, modest and cautious approach to investing and life makes him a fantastic role model.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Tim Guinness is the founder and Chairman of Guinness Global Investors. He has been in business 5 decades and has been managing money for 44 years. He has built up two firms, the first he sold and the second now runs $11bn. Age 77, he is still thinking about how to grow the business and secure its future. Perhaps controversially, Tim thinks it’s not difficult for activemanagers to beat the index, even today. This was a fascinating discussion with an incredibly experienced and normally under the radar fund manager who is unafraid to challenge consensus thinking. Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Nick Train is a seriously thoughtful growth investor with a highly impressive 40 year track record. He invests in eternal franchises and takes a 20 year view. He says his ideal holding period is forever. He was early to recognise that high quality consumer brands were great investments and accordingly his funds significantly outperformed their benchmarks. More recently, the last five years have been less kind and performance has lagged somewhat with weak performance from some of his biggest holdings, notably Diageo, which is down almost 50% from its peak, in a market which has gone up. Nick has taken this performance to heart and he explains why he has stuck with Diageo and continues to believe it’s as “forever” stock. He also explains his change in strategy to favouring 21st century asset light digital data plays which he sees as even more valuable than his old favourite consumer brands. He is particularly impressed with Rightmove, which I have described in the past as akin to a UK Zillow, and explains his rationale, as well as his enthusiasm for LSEG, RELX and Unilever.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Christopher Tsai is a deeply thoughtful growth investor. He became one of the foremost collectors of the works of Ai Weiwei, recognising their implicit value and deeply studying the artist. His concentrated portfolio reflects his attraction to growth stocks with Tesla his largest position. In our conversation, he explains why he believes Tesla has deep moats across multiple verticals; why he thinks many of the growth stocks in his portfolio have optically inflated valuations as they invest now to create future value; why the second largest position in his portfolio is QXO, with his father, also a famous investor, being one of Brad Jacobs’ original backers; and what he looks for in managers. I am trying to meet more growth investors to understand their strategy better. Christopher’s portfolio is too racy for me, at over a 60x P/E multiple on my estimates when we recorded and probably higher today, but he makes an interesting case for holding long-term compounders.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

David Samra has been in the investment business for over 30years. He specialises in international value and has beaten his index by over 4% pa for over 20 years, in a period when traditional value has been doing poorly. That may be why his fund, which has been closed to new investors for most of the last 14 years, has reached $50bn. In this conversation, David explains his focus on four factors: owning good companies, buying them at a discount of at least 30% to intrinsic value, and ensuring they have excellent management and a strong balance sheet.And he discusses several of his stocks, sharing some impressively detailed knowledge.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Dave Iben is the founder and CIO of Kopernik GlobalInvestors, a $6bn global value investment shop which prides itself on independent thought and is comfortable with contrarian positions.Steve invited Dave on the podcast because at a recent NewYork conference, Dave was cheerleading that value was back, and Steve wanted to discuss the rationale for his enthusiasm, given value’s massive underperformance in the last 15 years. Luckily Dave was spending the summer in London looking for cheap UK stocks, and they could record in person.Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.

Gary Channon is one of the UK’s better known valueinvestors. He runs a value fund, a closed-end fund and a private equity vehicle.  He runs a highly concentrated portfolio. The top 5 positions are over 50%, and he holds no more than 15 stocks. I asked him on the podcast because he is really thoughtful about his process – he only buys stocks selling for <50% of intrinsic value, and if he can monitor the business performance independently of the company's communications. He is then prepared to hold them for extended periods, as long as they remain cheap.His framework for evaluating a stock includes parameterslike the depth of work completed and confidence levels, he has instructed his entire research team to become AI experts and he has already seen significant benefits; he thinks AI means sellside analysts will be more or less gone in twoyears; and we talked about his techniques for interviewing management which include spending 4-6 hours preparing for a 1 hour meeting.  Behind the Balance Sheet is a forensic accounting and fundamental investing podcast for serious investors. Each episode dives into how real‑world investors source ideas, build conviction and manage their portfolios. You’ll hear frameworks for analysing industries, understanding business models, and thinking about risk, behaviour and incentives, so you can refine your own process rather than copy stock tips.For show notes, transcripts and additional resources, visit our ⁠⁠website⁠⁠. If you value thoughtful, process-driven investing discussions, follow the show and consider leaving a short review, or just a 5* rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please help spread the word.