Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?

(0:00) Bestie intros! (0:18) The fight to save open source AI: Kimi K3 panic, Anthropic/OpenAI regulatory capture (27:38) Anthropic/OpenAI historic growth rates, China's long game (48:29) Anthropic's $1.5B piracy settlement and the great IP theft hypocrisy (1:07:12) Google and Tesla stocks tank on surging AI capex (1:17:19) Socialism Corner: "Evictions = Violence" and the threat to private property rights Apply for All-In Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/kimi-k3?intelligence=artificial-analysis-intelligence-index#intelligence-comparisons https://www.axios.com/2026/07/20/ai-us-china-open-source-kimi https://www.wired.com/story/the-white-house-is-trying-to-figure-out-what-to-do-about-chinese-ai https://x.com/mkratsios47/status/2079933645888880708 https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-bans-an-open-source-ai-model-in-2026-20260703221501747 https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/deepseek-openais-what-is-distillation-david-sacks https://stratechery.com/2026/whos-afraid-of-chinese-models https://x.com/CommerceGov/status/2080341953086886387 https://x.com/tickerplus/status/2080123562560504240 https://blog.tickertrends.io/p/anthropic-vs-openai-arr-tracking https://x.com/sama/status/2077817060068057493 https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-approves-anthropics-15-billion-settlement-copyright-lawsuit-2026-07-20 https://www.anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-distillation-attacks https://techstartups.com/2026/07/22/nearly-200-silicon-valley-startups-urge-trump-not-to-ban-chinese-ai-models-warn-it-could-kill-innovation https://x.com/typesfast/status/2080339052398891244 https://www.thefp.com/p/why-new-york-city-has-50000-ghost

(0:00) Bubble talk: Comparing today's AI market to the dot-com bubble (7:50) AI's real-world limits: why enterprise AI is harder than expected (16:38) Transitioning to an AI-First Workspace (21:26) Health & AI: self-directed healthcare and biometric data (24:30) Politics, wealth tax, and AI as a truth-seeking force (35:12) Knicks & Sports Talk Thanks to our partners for making this possible! AppLovin Ads — AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE Follow Mark: https://x.com/mcuban Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:32) New AI regulatory proposal: DeepMind's Demis Hassabis proposes FINRA-type body (20:01) Stripe, Block, and Advent offer $53B to acquire PayPal (37:51) Apple sues OpenAI, alleging stolen trade secrets (42:49) Grok Build data leak, AI data privacy, Tokenmaxxing update, Mira Murati's new model (59:53) NY bans datacenters, becoming first state to enact a moratorium (1:22:57) Science Corner: New data on reversing aging! Adopt Ronnie the Dog: https://www.instagram.com/reels/Da0pGahBwaW Apply for All-In Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://x.com/chamath/status/2077502408528212144 https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2076957440109625718 https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2076323181154230284 https://x.com/Jason/status/2076231055443440105 https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/2077741908391031246 https://thinkingmachines.ai/news/introducing-inkling https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/15/inside-anthropics-state-by-state-plan-to-ratchet-up-ai-rules-00998415 https://x.com/politico/status/2077315780144996633 https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1978145266269077891 https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/stripe-advent-offer-buy-paypal-more-than-53-billion-sources-say-2026-07-15 https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/block-contributing-to-equity-for-paypal-takeover-bid-cnbc-says-thefly-news https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2026/07/Apple-Inc.-v.-Liu-et-al.pdf https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apple-lawsuit-threatens-openais-hardware-215438163.html https://x.com/markgurman/status/2076306380583997665 https://www.engadget.com/2216186/elon-musk-bought-a-gas-turbine-company https://x.com/Reuters/status/2076957424339050839 https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/2077596563380072694 https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/2077606887055306879 https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/10/openai-china-ai-data-centers-report-00957612 https://trends.google.com/explore?q=GMO%2C%2Fm%2F0dkz0z&date=2010-01-01%202026-07-15&geo=US https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-75141-2

(0:00) Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger joins Jason! (1:41) What Went Wrong at Intel (15:19) Why a Taiwan Blockade Would Cripple the US Economy (25:00) Lovable's Anton Osika: One Million New Apps a Week (33:38) How Lovable is Bringing Down Builder Costs Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses, offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. https://airwallex.com/allin Plaud - If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at https://plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Pat: https://x.com/PGelsinger Follow Anton: https://x.com/antonosika Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) ElevenLabs' $600M ARR Ramp, 600 Employees & Life Without PMs (15:34) Celebrity Voice Deals, Deepfake Impersonation & Racing OpenAI and Anthropic (31:42) Legora's Hypergrowth, Disrupting Law Firms & the Billable Hour (42:31) LexisNexis Decline, Legal Data Moats & Legora's Narrow AI Models Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses, offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. https://airwallex.com/allin Oracle powers AI at every scale—from frontier labs to enterprise production. Your data. Leading models. No lock-in. One platform, architected for AI. Built for business. Visit https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-experience/?source=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&SC=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&pcode= Follow Mati: https://x.com/mati Follow Max: https://x.com/MaxJunestrand Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg! (2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from the SpaceX IPO, the unlimited TAM of intelligence (27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly (54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China? (1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow Brad: ttps://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027 https://x.com/thejessezhang/status/2074154325933424861 https://x.com/praveenTweets/status/2074605343439810922 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074802778074124434 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074814752174522857 https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2070670644577280109 https://x.com/andyfang/status/2074252174226493584 https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074630732019036574 https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458 https://x.com/alighodsi/status/2074996561306955958 https://blog.nicolasmeridjen.com/en/blog/2026-04-03-alibaba-qwen-closed-source-end-of-open-weight https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-ai-companies-are-going-closed https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-overseas-access-chinas-top-ai-models-sources-say-2026-07-07 https://x.com/KurtSupeCPA/thread/2074817292550984010

(0:00) The AI Buildout: Datacenters Bigger Than Cities (Andrew Feldman) (1:50) Reasoning, Inference, and Breaking Moore's Law (16:28) Open Source, AI Sovereignty, and the Road to AGI (40:54) The Innovation Behind Generative Video (Robin Rombach) (47:31) Martin Scorsese, Robots, and the Future of Hollywood IP Thanks to our partners for making this possible! AppLovin Ads - AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. https://www.nasdaq.com/convergence-economy Follow Andrew: https://x.com/andrewdfeldman Follow Robin: https://x.com/robrombach Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@allin Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July! (0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout" (33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate (50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted (59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO (1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713 https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115 https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213 https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/chinese-national-pleads-guilty-running-birth-tourism-scheme-helped-aliens-give-birth-us https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democratic-socialist-melat-kiros-defeats-longtime-house-incumbent-in-colorado-primary https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571 https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719 https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC   Thanks to our partners! Northwest Registered Agent — Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com/ALLINFREE PLAUD — If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X) Follow Nate: https://x.com/NateSilver538  Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick join the show! (1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC (22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans (45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip (1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hitting Apple and consumer hardware (1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space (1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Travis: https://x.com/travisk Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://abcnews.com/Politics/clean-sweep-3-candidates-endorsed-mamdani-win-primaries/story?id=134152579 https://polymarket.com/event/mamdani-team-sweeps-primaries-20260618232357710 https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2067356255916536120 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/espaillat-ny-house-primary-loss-district-13-avila-chevalier-rcna351127 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069645066252034288 https://x.com/america/status/2069622732279402804 https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069433391162798337 https://x.com/JoshBlockDC/status/2070108811851882691 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069776474429624684 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/07/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people https://x.com/PirateWires/status/2069146641266094417 https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e https://x.com/jietang/status/2067580270078030088