The Uncertainty Podcast

Kenny Boyce discusses the recent critiques of probability in the philosophy of religion, principally by John Norton. Kenny is an all-around great guy and (given his considerable philosophical overlap with my own views) a genius.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00 Introduction00:06 What is the fine-tuning argument?01:40 Epistemic vs. objective probability03:40 Why epistemic priors are necessary07:39 Can probability apply without empirical data?09:41 John Norton's material theory of induction13:05 Bayesianism vs. Norton's approach to induction18:55 The outcome space objection to Bayesianism26:02 The problem of the priors28:08 Evidential support and rational belief33:01 Must rational credences obey the probability axioms?36:45 Can credences be incomparable?42:24 Are fine-tuning probabilities unjustified?50:20 Could deeper physics explain fine-tuning?52:34 The prior probabilities of theism and naturalism58:55 Kenny's greatest philosophical uncertainty Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

The brilliant Substacker Both Sides Brigade joins me for a discussion about three hot topics in our corner of the philosophy of religion internet: the omission theodicy, the miracle case for Catholicism, and the doctrine of eternal conscious torment.Check out Brian Cutter and Philip Swenson's defense of the archon abandonment theodicy, as well as Brian Cutter's paper on Hell and justice.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:06:32 The Archon abandonment theodicy explained00:12:09 Natural evil and the free will defense00:16:42 The expected costs of Archon failure00:26:35 Divine foreknowledge and God's failure to intervene00:34:04 The epistemology of Catholic miracles00:41:56 Padre Pio's stigmata and carbolic acid00:46:07 Divine hiddenness and conflicting miracle evidence00:53:19 The miracle of Calanda and the restored leg00:59:46 Fátima and the miracle of the sun01:08:29 Eternal conscious torment and its defenders01:14:31 Can Catholic miracles justify eternal conscious torment?01:24:19 The noetic effects of sin and moral skepticism01:34:09 Can hell be good for those in it?01:42:05 Can eternal punishment involve finite suffering? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Noah McKay, a philosophy Ph.D. student at Princeton, joins me to discuss his recent conversation to Catholicism, Catholic miracle evidence, whether the Bible predicts a succession of popes, and Catholic sexual ethics.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:53 From Protestantism to Catholicism: the initial case00:02:24 Craig Keener and the evidence for Christian miracles00:04:35 Fine-tuning, the resurrection, and other arguments for Christianity00:05:33 How Joe Schmid helped change his theological views00:07:13 Marian apparitions, Eucharistic miracles, and Catholicism00:11:18 Overcoming objections to Catholic theology and history00:14:26 Why Noah initially rejected the papacy00:16:24 The biblical case for papal authority00:22:19 Scripture, tradition, and divine revelation00:24:21 Does the papacy preserve Christian unity and truth?00:30:11 Peter, Paul, and the case for apostolic succession00:48:10 Can the Catholic Church really claim to preserve unity?01:06:08 How strong is the evidence for Catholic miracles?01:14:00 Can miracles override moral and philosophical objections?01:19:07 Catholic sexual ethics, moral intuitions, and disagreement01:32:37 What philosophical position is Noah most uncertain of? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Mike Titelbaum, author of the two-volume "Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology," dissects the use of probability in philosophy, philosophy of religion, science, and everyday life. We do, of course, discuss my recent discussion with John Norton and the material theory of induction.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:11 What is Bayesianism?00:05:21 Must credences have precise numerical values?00:07:16 Imprecise credence and comparative confidence00:14:27 Bayesianism and Norton’s material theory of induction00:20:02 Can we assign probabilities to the universe’s initial conditions?00:28:57 Fine-tuning and the principle of indifference00:35:13 Objective versus subjective Bayesianism00:39:20 Must rational beliefs obey the probability axioms?00:47:01 Incommensurability and alternative models of credence00:55:06 Can Bayesianism evaluate evidence for God?00:59:08 How probability theory illuminates evidential support01:03:03 Everyday probability versus mathematical probability01:07:55 Does subjective Bayesianism entail skepticism?01:19:46 What is Titelbaum most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Emily Adlam discusses the problems facing several interpretations of quantum mechanics: principal among them, the probability problem. Prepare for discussion of self-locating credences, branch-counting, and whether a mechanism deposits consciousness throughout the branching wavefunction of the universe.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:52 The problem of recovering empirical confirmation00:04:47 The many-worlds interpretation00:07:01 The measurement problem00:08:42 The probability problem in many-worlds00:12:06 The decision-theoretic approach to probability00:16:33 Self-locating evidence and Everettian quantum mechanics00:19:20 Pure vs. superficial self-locating credence00:25:08 Can the Born rule constrain self-locating credence?00:30:15 Interpretations vs. theories of quantum mechanics00:34:51 Can we save science from quantum mechanics?00:44:30 What happened to the Copenhagen interpretation?00:46:45 What do physicists believe about quantum mechanics?00:48:27 The anthropic argument for God00:56:22 Multiverses, fine-tuning, and self-locating evidence Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

In the hundredth episode of this podcast, I discuss the use, and misuse, of probability in science and philosophy with John Norton. Prepare for a contentious conversation about fundamental issues in probability theory, induction, and cosmic fine-tuning. This one does not disappoint.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:30 Formal vs. material theories of induction00:04:58 Does material induction make induction redundant?00:11:15 Bayesianism vs. the material theory00:16:47 Can we say evolution is “probably” true?00:19:23 Evidential support without probabilities00:23:16 Can Bayesianism capture inference to the best explanation?00:25:00 The outcome space dispute00:29:47 Probability and the danger of false precision00:31:03 The simulation argument and misapplied probability00:35:39 The doomsday argument and self-locating evidence00:38:33 Objective vs. subjective Bayesianism00:43:36 The bootstrapping problem for probability00:50:53 Probability in cosmology and the multiverse00:57:59 Does inflation make our universe more probable?01:00:19 What is John Norton most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Tim Mawson, professor of philosophy at Oxford, discusses the contours of the newly emerging philosophical investigation into the meaning of life. What does it mean to say that life's meaning is subjective versus objective? Would life be meaningful if we were immortal? And what difference does God make, and not make, to whether life means anything?Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:55 Open theism and God's relationship to time00:11:09 Returning to the meaning of life00:12:06 Why philosophers neglected the meaning of life00:15:48 What does it mean for life to have meaning?00:19:20 Objectivism, subjectivism and hybrid theories00:28:23 Objective meaning, subjective states and purpose00:35:00 Can there be no meaning to life?00:39:47 What can God add to life's meaning?00:43:25 Vocation, purpose and meaningfulness00:50:50 Does God give some people more meaningful lives?00:59:20 Death, immortality and the meaning of life01:00:25 Would eternal life become unbearably boring?01:07:48 Does infinite time destroy urgency?01:13:23 Would praising God forever become boring?01:18:14 What God cannot add to life's meaning01:21:55 Can God's existence make a life less meaningful?01:24:18 What is the meaning of life? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Kevin Scharp comes back on the podcast to discuss William Lane Craig’s eight-part case for the existence of God: contingency, cosmology, mathematics, fine-tuning, consciousness, morality, miracles, and experience.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:20 Behind the scenes: Kevin vs. William Lane Craig00:14:11 Craig on probability & inference to the best explanation00:23:07 Divine psychology and fine-tuning00:27:06 Argument #1 - Contingency00:43:30 Does everything need an explanation?00:49:48 Argument #2 - Kalam cosmological argument00:51:35 Actual infinity and Hilbert’s Hotel01:03:06 Argument #3 - Fine-tuning01:09:53 What does the Big Bang actually tell us?01:11:53 Divine psychology01:27:08 Argument #4 - Applicability of mathematics01:35:08 Argument #5 - Consciousness01:40:47 Does consciousness really get us to God?01:45:41 Argument #6 - Morality01:54:43 Argument #7 - The resurrection of Jesus01:58:27 Miracles and the laws of nature02:08:25 Argument #8 - Experience of God Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Ralph Weir answers all my questions about the mind-body problem, how we define "physical," whether I can conceive of philosophical zombies, and where panpsychism fits into all this.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:35 How Ralph got into philosophy of mind00:05:52 Eliminativism: do mental states exist?00:09:00 What is illusionism?00:10:56 What is phenomenal consciousness?00:17:53 What are qualia?00:21:33 What does “physical” actually mean?00:29:03 Is panpsychism a form of physicalism?00:35:45 Mapping the mind-body problem00:45:16 Property dualism vs. substance dualism00:53:10 What is the strongest case against physicalism?01:00:32 Philosophical zombies and modal skepticism01:10:23 Can science settle the mind-body problem?01:18:20 Mental causation and physical anomalies01:22:31 Does the evidence favor physicalism?01:34:07 Which philosophical view is Ralph most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

You do NOT want to miss this debate on the perennial question that human beings have wondered about for thousands of years: does God exist? Josh presents both a cumulative case for theism, as well as his signature argument from arbitrary limits. Mike presents his novel argument against God's infinite attributes.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:48 Joshua Rasmussen’s opening statement00:17:05 Michael Huemer’s opening statement00:33:26 Moderated discussion begins00:35:43 Infinity and the nature of God00:45:18 What grounds an eternal reality?00:48:13 God, consciousness, and omniscience00:54:18 Platonism, infinity, and the digits of π01:01:18 Can God have unlimited power?01:07:29 Does theism best explain reality?01:14:08 Fine-tuning and the multiverse01:20:27 Does a multiverse actually explain life?01:26:39 Suffering and the problem of evil01:32:56 Closing statements Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe