Erica Alini: Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World (EP.242)
The intersection between economics and psychology makes the subject of personal finance complex. To help us elucidate this topic is personal finance reporter at the Globe and Mail and the author of the bestselling book "Money Like You Mean It, Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World.", Erica Alini. Her journey into finance journalism began when she started working for the Wall Street Journal immediately after the financial crisis of 2007/08. Since then, Erica has become an accomplished writer and journalist, having worked for many respected organizations. She is also the author of a best-selling book, Money Like You Mean It, which provides readers with a nuanced understanding of the economic forces that shape financial struggles and how to overcome them. In this conversation, we talk to Erica about the importance of knowing yourself and your debt, the money bucket system, and the definition of financial abuse. We also discuss the various types of debt traps people should avoid, the dangers of micropayments, and what to be aware of when looking for a mortgage, as well as advice for finding a reliable mortgage broker, the avalanche versus the snowball model, and much more. Tune in to discover how to take back control of your finances and avoid the burden of debt with personal finance expert, Erica Alini.
Key Points From This Episode:
• Why Erica thinks Canadians have so much household debt. (0:02:24)
• Strategies that people can implement to avoid the debt trap. (0:04:58)
• Erica’s opinion on budgeting as a tool to manage spending. (0:08:34)
• How the ‘bucketing model’ changes for a couple as opposed to an individual. (0:12:10)
• How couples with different incomes should share expenses. (0:14:17)
• Signs of an unhealthy financial relationship between partners. (0:17:06)
• The amount of money an emergency fund should have. (0:21:17)
• What consumers should know about the different debt products available. (0:24:08)
• Discover the downside of taking a mortgage with the lowest interest rate. (0:33:55)
• Whether or not an independent mortgage broker is better than a bank. (0:38:05)
• Important insights about credit scores. (0:39:51)
• Whether people should rent or buy property. (0:45:13)
• How the traditional sense of a good job with sufficient income has changed. (0:50:34)
• Erica’s approach to explaining the risk of investing in stocks. (0:56:46)
• Insights about the math of a financial decision versus the psychology. (0:58:25)
• How Erica defines success in her life. (1:00:29)
Extra: Questions to ask a mortgage broker:
1. What kind of penalty will you have to pay for breaking your contract?
2. Is the cap on your lump-sum payments 10 percent or 20 percent of your mortgage balance?
3. Will you be able to make lump-sum payments any time or just once a year?
4. Can you double your payments?
Participate in our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge:
23 in 23 Reading Challenge — https://rationalreminder.ca/23in23
23 in 23 Reading Challenge on Beanstalk — https://pwlcapital.beanstack.org/
Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode:
Book From Today’s Episode:
Money Like You Mean It — https://www.dundurn.com/books_/t22117/a9781459748675-money-like-you-mean-it
Links From Today’s Episode:
Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/
Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/
Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/
Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind
Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder
Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix
Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore
Erica Alini on Twitter — https://twitter.com/ealini
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David Blanchett: Regret Optimized Portfolios, and Optimal Retirement Income (EP.254)
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Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/
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Complex Financial Instruments with Prof. Paul Calluzzo (Plus Sean Silcoff on Losing the Signal) (EP.253)
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Prof. Burton Malkiel: 50 Years of A Random Walk Down Wall Street (EP.252)
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Throughout the episode, Professor Malkiel shares his insights on a wide range of topics related to personal finance and investing, including the benefits of index funds, the dangers of active stock picking, the impact of fees and taxes on investment returns, factor investing, and expensive asset classes. He also discusses research on socially responsible investing and how investors can incorporate ethical considerations into their portfolios without sacrificing performance. In this episode, listeners will gain a better understanding of the vital principles of investing and how to apply them to achieve their financial goals. Whether you're a novice investor or an experienced pro, this episode offers valuable insights and advice from one of the most respected economists in the field, Professor Malkiel. Key Points From This Episode: Professor Malkiel explains the efficient market hypothesis and what the term “efficient market” means. 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Covered Calls (Plus Robin Powell and Jonathan Hollow on How to Fund the Life You Want) (EP.251)
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Harvey: The Past and Future of Finance — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/171 ‘Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-Proof Performance Measures’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=302815 Adviser 2.0 — https://www.advicereinvented.com/ Sensible Investing — https://sensibleinvesting.tv/ Financial Times — https://www.ft.com/ Rob Carrick — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/rob-carrick/ The Globe and Mail — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/ The Money and Meaning Show — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-money-and-meaning-show/id1449894787 The Most Hated F Word — https://themosthatedfword.com/ New Self-Regulatory Organization of Canada — https://www.newselfregulatoryorganizationofcanada.ca/ FP Canada — https://www.fpcanada.ca/ Rational Reminder Continuing Education — learn.rationalreminder.ca PWL Capital — https://www.pwlcapital.com/ PWL Capital on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/Pwlcapital-Montreal/videos IAFP Symposium — https://iafpsymposium.ca Burt Malkiel — https://jrc.princeton.edu/people/burton-g-malkiel David Blanchett — https://www.davidmblanchett.com/ Meir Statman — https://www.scu.edu/business/finance/faculty/statman/ Nick Maggiulli — https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasmaggiulli/ Jill Schlesinger — https://www.jillonmoney.com/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. 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Prof. John Y. Campbell: Financial Decisions for Long-term Investors (EP.250)
1:18:06Navigating the world of finance and investing is undeniably complicated, sometimes unnecessarily so. And all too often the people who end up making the most costly financial mistakes are those who can least afford to do so. But what exactly needs to change in order for more people to make wise and well-informed financial decisions? And how do we go about implementing those changes? Joining us today to help us unpack this topic and the many decisions involved in the world of investing is John Y. Campbell, a British-American economist, professor of economics at Harvard, and founding partner at Arrowstreet Capital, a systematic asset management firm based in Boston. John has published over a hundred of articles on a range of topics including fixed income, equality valuation, portfolio choices, and household finance, all of which we explore in today’s expansive conversation. We kick things off by discussing utility theory, why it’s so important to the study of finance, and what it can teach us about risk aversion, before delving into portfolio structure, asset allocation, and hedging. John also expands on the study of household finance, the mistakes that households typically make, why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions, and how to bring theory and behaviour into alignment. We wrap things up by discussing how financial literacy, education, and regulation can improve outcomes for households before hearing John’s advice on selecting an optimal mortgage contract along with an overview of the type of risk that mortgage contracts expose you to. Today’s episode is jam-packed with information and insights from a profoundly knowledgeable figure in academia. Key Points From This Episode: • An overview of asset pricing theory; unpacking the utility function in finance, what it teaches us about being risk averse, and how it is used to determine the value we place on any amount of money. (0:04:01) • The implications of using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for portfolio choice. (0:13:58) • The difference between arbitrage pricing theory and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). (0:18:15) • How predictability in stock returns affects portfolio advice for long-term investors and why John prefers the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. (0:23:40) • Why a long-term inflation index bond is the ideal risk-free asset for a long-term investor, and how portfolio advice, concerning bonds, changes when inflation index bonds are not available. (0:28:32) • The impact that labour income should have on optimal portfolio choice and the relationship between human capital and financial assets as you age. (0:35:31) • Learn about John’s 2004 paper entitled ‘Bad Beta, Good Beta’ and how intertemporal asset pricing explains differences in returns between value and growth stocks. (0:38:33) • The benefits and drawbacks of value investing: why historically they do well on average, but extremely poorly over certain periods. (0:41:12) • A breakdown of stochastic volatility and how it affects portfolio choice for long-term investors. (0:47:16) • How long-term equity investors should approach foreign currency hedging in their portfolios, and how fixed-income investors should deal with foreign currency exposure. (0:50:07) • The study of household finance, what it aims to answer, and the major challenges in this area of study. (0:53:54) • An overview of the mistakes that households typically make, how costly they can be, and why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions. (0:59:57) • Suggestions on how household behaviour and theoretical predictions can be brought into alignment and the methods that have the most potential to improve outcomes for households. (01:04:47) • What households should take into account when selecting an optimal mortgage contract and the different types of risk that mortgage contracts expose people to.[01:10:18] • How John’s definition of success has shifted over the years, the joy of academia, and why he is especially grateful for the opportunity to connect with students on their educational journey. (01:16:04) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-250-prof-john-y-campbell-financial-decisions-for-long-term-investors-discussion-thread/23202 Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore John Y. Campbell — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/home 'Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds' — https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6801/w6801.pdf 'Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/campbellsunderamviceira_20160523.pdf 'Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/gorg20090319_copyedited.pdf 'Bad Beta, Good Beta' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/bbgb_2004_nberw9509.pdf 'An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgpt_volatilityrisk20170123final.pdf 'Global Currency Hedging' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/globalcurrencyhedging_20090128_manuscript.pdf 'Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X21004013 'What Drives Booms and Busts in Value?' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgp_valueboomsbusts_20230311.pdf 'Household Finance' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/householdfinance_jof_2006.pdf 'The Cross-Section of Household Preferences' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/calvetcampbellgomessodini_20221027.pdf 'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/elylecture_march2016.pdf 'Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/524204 'A Model of Mortgage Default' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/mortdefault13022014.pdf 'Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/publications/household-risk-management-and-optimal-mortgage-choice 'Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w11468 'An Asset Allocation Puzzle' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w4857
What are financial advisors (measurably) useful for? (EP.249)
1:05:31Our focus for this episode is the real utility of financial advisors, and Ben shares a host of research and findings about the supposed and actual value that advisors can offer investors. This segment continues our exploration of investment basics, a fundamental theme for this show and our work at PWL Capital. One of the biggest and clearest lessons that becomes apparent through this discussion is the need for financial literacy independent of advice and so-called expertise from the outside. With that said, we do find time to share some of the positives investors can accrue from dealing with a trustworthy advisor and the conditions necessary for this. Later in the episode, our colleague Lukas Fleck joins us to share his review of The Obstacle Is the Way by Ryan Holiday and some of his own reading habits and tips. We finish the episode with lighter content about hot sauces, TV shows, and Ben's latest home improvement. Key Points From This Episode: • Introducing today's question about the usefulness of financial advisors. (0:03:35) • Common financial mistakes made by households. (0:11:13) • Some of the research and findings grounding today's discussion. (0:18:13) • Investing and self-control; what we can learn from data about smokers. (0:22:49) • Looking at some of the potential benefits of hiring an advisor for investors. (0:28:40) • A quick review of Episode 43 with Dave Butler from 2019. (0:34:07) • Today's book review of The Obstacle Is the Way, with Lukas Fleck, and some of the biggest takeaways. (0:36:43) • A look at Lukas' reading habits, favourite recent books, and his increased focus on getting through books. (0:44:59) • Advice for starting a book club and Lukas' reading hacks. (0:50:49) • The after-show; Ben tells us about his basketball hoop, last week's episode of Succession, and the hot sauce debate. (0:54:44) • Upcoming events, audience reviews, and future guests on the podcast. (0:58:31) Ad mentioned by Ben: Video: https://www.reddit.com/user/AMF_Quebec/comments/11rzoc9/les_risques_de_fraude_avec_les_cryptos_sont_bien/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&utm_content=1&utm_term=15 Text: https://lautorite.qc.ca/en/general-public/investments/crypto?utm_campaign=crypto-phase2-1017340&utm_content=image-amf_crypto2023_1x1_6sec_02_fr-fr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=reddit Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-249-what-are-financial-advisors-measurably-useful-for-discussion-thread/23120 Books From Today’s Episode: The Obstacle Is the Way: The Timeless Art of Turning Trials into Triumph — https://amzn.to/3MXh1dl The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Money — https://amzn.to/3UM8KLb Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World — https://amzn.to/3AuSXqZ Making Numbers Count: The Art and Science of Communicating Numbers — https://amzn.to/41HXnWK Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Lukas Fleck — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/lukas-fleck/ 'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161127 'Financial literacy and financial resilience: Evidence from around the world' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fima.12283 'Strategic price complexity in retail financial markets' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X08002092 'Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets' — https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/121/2/505/1884013?redirectedFrom=fulltext 'The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w21482 'Contract Design and Self-Control: Theory and Evidence' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/25098689 'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20161127 'Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds' — https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4686775/Laibson_OnePriceFail.pdf 'Failure to refinance' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16301507 'Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/524204 'Financial literacy and stock market participation' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X11000717 'Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715077 'Excessive Extrapolation and the Allocation of 401(k) Accounts to Company Stock' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/2697737 '$100 Bills on the Sidewalk: Suboptimal Investment in 401(k) Plans' — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3158583/ 'Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/380085 'Annuitization Puzzles' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.4.143 'The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w17929 'Understanding the Advice of Commissions-Motivated Agents: Evidence from the Indian Life Insurance Market' — https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/12-055_13c23c02-e57f-4aea-9630-316aa4b772ce.pdf 'Fiduciary Duty and the Market for Financial Advice' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w25861 'Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities' — https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/35/12/5334/6674521 'How (not) to pay for advice: A framework for consumer financial protection' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X12000074 'Financial Advice and Bank Profits' — https://academic.oup.com/rfs/article-abstract/31/11/4447/4985213?redirectedFrom=fulltext 'The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12995 'Retail Financial Advice: Does One Size Fit All?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12514 'The Ulysses option: Smoking and delegation in individual investor decisions' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612321003962 'Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior, investment biases, and self-control failure' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927539821000463 'Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/27735191 'Money Doctors' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/moneydoctors_journaloffinance.pdf 'The Costs and Benefits of Financial Advice' — https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Shared%20Documents/conferences/2013-household-behavior-risky-asset-mkts/Costs-and-Benefits-of-Financial-Advice_Foerster-Linnainmaa-Melzer-Previtero.pdf 'Time is money: Rational life cycle inertia and the delegation of investment management' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16300472 'Passing the buck: Delegating choices to others to avoid responsibility and blame' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597815300108#:~:text=One%20simple%20way%20to%20avoid,outcome%20on%20the%20other%20person. 'Expert financial advice neurobiologically "Offloads" financial decision-making under risk' — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19308261/ 'Impact of inflated perceptions of financial literacy on financial decision making' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167487020300672 'Precautionary savings, retirement planning and misperceptions of financial literacy' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X17301551 'Behavioral and wealth considerations for seeking professional financial planning help' — https://fpcanadaresearchfoundation.ca/media/khyfoso3/financial-services-reveiw-publication.pdf 'Financial literacy and the demand for financial advice' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S037842661400096X 'Does financial literacy affect the value of financial advice? A contingent valuation approach' — https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338669648_Does_financial_literacy_affect_the_value_of_financial_advice_A_contingent_valuation_approach 'How financial literacy shapes the demand for financial advice at older ages' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X21000220 'Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?' — https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/126/1/373/1901343?redirectedFrom=fulltext '(Over)insuring Modest Risks’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/25760237 'The Mismatch Between Life Insurance Holdings and Financial Vulnerabilities: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study' — https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/000282803321455340 'Saving and Life Insurance Holdings at Boston University - A Unique Case Study' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/23877728 'Who is internationally diversified? Evidence from the 401(k) plans of 296 firms' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16302483?via%3Dihub 'Is conflicted investment advice better than no advice?' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X20301537 'How Does Household Portfolio Diversification Vary with Financial Literacy and Financial Advice?' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.12231 'Financial Advice and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/41493871 'Financial advisors: A case of babysitters?' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378426611002548 'Professional financial advice, self-control and saving behavior' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ijcs.12480 'Do contracts influence comprehensive financial advice?' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1429807 'The Value of Financial Advice' — https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadepfau/2015/07/21/the-value-of-financial-advice/?sh=6b13feda1333
Prof. William Goetzmann: Learning from Financial Market History (EP.248)
1:07:32How the financial system works and how we interact with it has grown in complex ways and is a fascinating but nuanced topic. To guide us through the history of the economy is Professor William Goetzmann, who is an expert in finance, economics and art history, and whose research has been featured in top publications. As a highly respected scholar, he's authored numerous books on topics such as real estate and behavioural finance. It is fair to say Professor Goetzmann's work has left a significant impact on both academia and the world. In our conversation, we dive into financial market history and explore more than just broad market returns. We unpack the fascinating phenomenon of economic bubbles and booms, and how they have evolved and shaped the financial system. He also shares crucial insights from the past and advice for investors looking to leverage the market. And to wrap things up, Professor Goetzmann shares his views on money after digging deep into its historical roots. Tune in to unlock the secrets of the past and gain valuable insights for the future as we journey through the fascinating world of economic history. Tune in now! Key Points From This Episode: • Why is it important to collect and examine long-term historical returns data, and how useful the findings can be for today’s market. (0:03:21) • The furthest back in time that Professor William Goetzmann has looked at equity returns and how much of an issue survivorship bias is in long-term historical data. (0:05:44) • Reasons for the United States market trends concerning equity risk premiums and his approach to forecasting long-term returns of both stocks and bonds. (0:11:02) • Whether current discount rates are better for estimating future returns than long-term historical returns. (0:17:08) • How the markets of today compare to the markets of the 1900s, and whether investor behaviour has changed. (0:18:42) • Learn how global finance changed after the First World War and how likely a global financial meltdown is. (0:23:35) • What to consider when investing internationally and whether Canadian investors should be biased towards their home country. (0:28:23) • Hear Professor Goetzmann’s definition of an asset price bubble and his approach to studying economic bubbles and booms. (0:32:44) • Overview of the economic bubble and boom trends and crucial advice he has for investors regarding a market run-up. (0:36:18) • An explanation for negative bubble behaviour and how well market crashes align with investor expectations. (0:41:46) • The role of media in influencing investor behaviour, and whether long-term investors should ignore news from the financial media. (0:47:35) • What Professor Goetzmann has learned from studying bubble dynamics, and his advice for investing in transformative technologies. (0:52:50) • Professor Goetzmann’s book Money Changes Everything, his definition of money, and if money pre-dates trusted authorities. (0:57:47) • The role of money in finance and a brief outline of how finance played a role in the development of modern civilization. (1:02:13) • Professor Goetzmann’s definition of success. (1:06:08) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-248-prof-william-goetzmann-learning-from-financial-market-history-discussion-thread/23010 Book From Today’s Episode: Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible — https://amzn.to/3KqOYzX Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Prof. William Goetzmann on Twitter — https://twitter.com/wgoetzmann Prof. William Goetzmann — https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-n-goetzmann 'History and the Equity Risk Premium' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=702341 'The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X18302836?via%3Dihub 'A Century of Global Stock Markets' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=225683 'Will History Rhyme?' — https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/30/5/34 'New evidence on the first financial bubble' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X12002541 'Bubble Investing: Learning from History' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w21693#:~:text=History%20is%20important%20to%20the,sample%20size%20for%20inference%20small. 'Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash' — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eufm.12164 'Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys — https://www.nber.org/papers/w22143 'Crash Narratives' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w30195
Bank Runs (plus Jonathan Clements on "My Money Journey") (EP.247)
1:04:33There’s been a lot of interest in the topic of bank runs lately, and in today’s episode, we take a look at the most relevant research to help us better understand why they happen and how they can be avoided. Our conversation unpacks the 2022 Nobel prize-winning work of Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig and examines the three primary risks that banks need to navigate to avoid a bank run related crisis. We discuss the immense value that banks provide and how they keep the economy moving, before reflecting on how their most valuable services are inexorably tied to the risk of bank runs. You’ll also learn about the role of the media in triggering a bank run, and how the problems that arise with bank runs can be addressed through a combination of deposit insurance, bank regulation, and a diverse customer base — all of which are designed to keep depositors from panicking simultaneously. We also revisit a past conversation with Jonathan Clements, before catching up with him in real time to discuss his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too. Tune in for an in-depth look at bank runs, the value of writing your money story, and a timely reminder that when you’re making a deposit, you’re actually lending money to the bank. Key Points From This Episode: • An introduction to the topic of bank runs including an overview of the Nobel prize-winning work done on the subject in 2022. (0:02:12) • The three primary risks you need to manage as a bank in order to be a successful business. (0:07:28) • Why liquidity, illiquidity, and duration risk can pose a problem, even for healthy banks. (0:12:47) • How news stories can create unwarranted panic and cause a bank run, even if a bank isn’t experiencing problems. (0:16:02) • The multiple equilibria of banks as outlined in the Diamond and Dybvig paper. (0:16:31) • How deposit insurance can function as a solution, at least in part, to bank runs. (0:19:34) • What the Diamond and Dybvig paper teaches us about the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bank run. (0:21:35) • The difference between households and banks, and the lessons households can learn from the narrative around bank runs. (0:22:59) • A quick recap of our conversation with Jonathan Clements and a review of his new book My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom - and You Can Too. (0:27:16) • We welcome Jonathan Clements back onto the show to discuss his new book and why he wrote it. (0:32:00) • What readers can expect to learn from Jonathan’s book, like the impact parents have on your financial beliefs, and what inspires people to reassess their finances. (0:34:31) • The impact of early habits on our finances. (0:38:36) • Jonathan’s insights into the financial service industry, its complexity, and how our risk tolerance can shift over time. (0:40:19) • Why regret in financial decision-making is virtually unavoidable and the value of writing your money story. (0:44:22) • Past and upcoming meetups, feedback from our listeners, and a reminder of our 23 in 23 Reading Challenge. (0:47:42) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-247-bank-runs-plus-jonathan-clements-on-my-money-journey-episode-discussion/22878 Book From Today’s Episode: My Money Journey: How 30 people found financial freedom - and you can too — https://amzn.to/439D5Hw Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Jonathan Clements on Twitter — https://twitter.com/clementsmoney Jonathan Clements on LinkedIn —https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanclements Jonathan Clements on Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/ClementsMoney Jonathan Clements — http://HumbleDollar.com Episode 55: Jonathan Clements — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/55 'Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261155 'Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/319552 'Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or . . .)' — https://www.jstor.org/stable/43910017 'Long-Horizon Losses in Stocks, Bonds, and Bills: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3964908
Daniel H. Pink: How to Use Regret (EP.246)
48:21Human beings are undeniably complex, and what motivates us can often be a mystery, even to ourselves. So, how do we go about gathering and analyzing the data that will help us answer the most fundamental questions about our lives and our purpose? The answers may lie in an unexpectedly rich source of knowledge, our regrets. While regret is likely to have a decidedly negative connotation for most of us, it is also extremely powerful and can teach us a great deal about ourselves and what we value. It is an emotion that is present in all of us, and social scientists (like anthropologists and sociologists) have been fascinated by the subject for decades. Today on the show, we are joined by one such expert, Daniel Pink, author of the book The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward. In our conversation, Daniel shares details about the research he conducted for his book, how he determined the four main categories of regret, and what we can learn from our regrets by confronting them head-on. We also discuss Daniel’s 2011 New York Times Bestselling title, Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us, and what he thinks about working from home in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Daniel is an exceptional storyteller and is highly knowledgeable on the subjects of regret, motivation, and the important role they play in our lives. To learn more about the many facets of regret and how it can help you thrive, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: ● Understanding regret as an emotion, why it differs from disappointment, and how regret can help us make better decisions. (0:03:00) ● The four main types of regret (foundation, boldness, moral, and connections) and the methodology Daniel used to determine them. (0:07:30) ● The role that outcomes play when it comes to boldness regrets. (0:13:09) ● Why Daniel believes connection regret is so common, and what regret reveals about our values. (0:14:13) ● The World Regret Survey that Daniel conducted as a systematic survey of regret, and his findings that regrets of inaction tend to stay with us much longer. (0:17:14) ● What people can learn from past financial decisions that they regret and the challenge of addressing foundation regrets. (0:20:42) ● The surprising benefits of regrets and how to learn from them. (0:21:31) ● How regret anticipation can be used to help people save for retirement. (0:22:46) ● Daniel’s system for addressing feelings of regret, why it’s important to confront them rather than wallow in them, and the importance of being kind to yourself. (0:24:01) ● The overwhelming amount of decisions we make in our lives, when to choose the best versus something that is good enough, and how to optimize future regret. (0:27:56) ● An overview of the many complex factors that motivate people, intrinsic and external motivators, and how Daniel’s research on regret affected his perspective on motivation. (0:31:16) ● Daniel’s thoughts on working from home when considering autonomy, mastery, purpose, and motivation. (0:37:17) ● The motivational model that Daniel sets out in his book Drive and some of the common misconceptions he has observed in reporting on his book. (0:39:33) ● Why people are purpose maximizers, not profit maximizers, and how this should impact the leadership of a company. (0:41:26) ● Daniel’s response to the question “How do you define success in your life?” and why he doesn’t think about the word ‘success’ very much. (0:47:08) Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-246-daniel-h-pink-how-to-use-regret-episode-discussion/22775 Books From Today’s Episode: The Power of Regret — https://amzn.to/42HArID Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us — https://amzn.to/40jDpl7 To Sell Is Human — https://amzn.to/3K9M2ci Free Agent Nation — https://amzn.to/40knovb Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Daniel H. Pink on Twitter — https://twitter.com/danielpink Daniel H. Pink — https://www.danpink.com/