Macro Risks On The Horizon

Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts? Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/

Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing. Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf? Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-13dec24/

Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative? Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6 Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants? FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-08nov24/

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further. Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates. FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-25oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios. Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the two-weeks free trial of his institutional research: https://forms.gle/5GfSwfzovsFpCA5q7 Want to be in touch with Brent? Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg or visit spectramarkets.com Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-18oct24/

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework. Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8 Brent's Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11oct24/

EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCE https://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/ Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF. Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more. Today’s episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-04oct24/

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired. Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they  are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus. As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying. But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus? Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show. Elm's ''Crystal Ball'' Trading Game: https://elmwealth.com/crystal-ball-challenge/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-27sep2024/

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within. We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads. https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4 Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/