Arash Azizi and Jodi Kantor: Iran Has the Leverage

The regime in Tehran is not as fractured as is commonly portrayed, and it is also pragmatic enough to see the economic opportunities that would follow from a deal with an eager-to-please-the-markets Donald Trump. But the contours of a potential agreement look like a win for Iran—not for the U.S., which has spent billions a day, lost military personnel and assets, and handed Iran new-found leverage over the global economy. Also, in this season of commencement, Jodi has advice for new college grads on how to navigate the tough employment market and a digitized hiring process. Plus, the Supreme Court's embrace of the shadow docket and John Roberts' pivotal role in the shift, what it's like to listen to Harvey Weinstein mansplain, moneyed Iranians apocalypsemaxxing, and examining Zionism through the prism of the nationalism movement at the time of Israel's founding.The Times’s Jodi Kantor and The Atlantic’s Arash Azizi join Tim Miller. show notes Arash on Iran mostly wanting a deal Jodi's new book, "How to Start: Discovering Your Life's Work" Arash's book, "What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom" Arash on Zionism and the nationalism movement Jodi and Adam Liptak on the birth of the shadow docket at SCOTUS Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events Learn a new Language and get up to 60% off  your subscription at Babbel.com/BULWARK

Our Constitution is about limited government and restraining the power of the state, but we've got a president asserting powers he lawfully doesn't have, a Supreme Court that largely helps him do so, and a Republican Congress that's just dozing through it all. Americans need a refresher on how our government is supposed to work under the Constitution. Plus, the mifepristone case has brought abortion politics roaring back in time for the midterms, Trump is creating his own libel rules and circumventing press freedoms, and no, SCOTUS, the 14th and 15th Amendments were not designed to be colorblind on the matter of voting rights. Melissa Murray joins Tim Miller.show notes Melissa's new annotated guide to the Constitution  Melissa's "Strict Scrutiny" podcast  The NYT on the Supreme Court's shadow docket  Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events Exclusive $25-off Carver Mat at https://on.auraframes.com/BULWARK. Promo Code THEBULWARK

Acting AG Tood Blanche announced over the weekend that basically everybody in America can use the expression "86 47" without fear of prosecution—except James Comey, who Trump yearns to see behind bars.  Also, POTUS is still so steamed that NATO is not helping him with the Iran war that he's ordered thousands of U.S. troops withdrawn from Germany—even though the bases there are key to the war effort. Plus, the ceasefire looks to be in trouble, the Dems need to cool it on the 'burn the witch' culture, and Trump's vanity public projects are becoming increasingly grotesque. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes  : Monday's "Morning Shots" Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with David Baer Tim's 'Bulwark Take' with Marc Elias on the SCOTUS VRA ruling JVL on the risks of Fetterman flipping parties Lauren on how some Dems want Chair Ken Martin to go Mark Hertling on Trump pulling troops out of Germany Eric Edelman on the troop drawdown Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and LA on 5/12: TheBulwark.com/Events

Fox News wouldn't shut up about Hunter and Burisma, but its viewers aren't likely to hear any criticism of Eric and Don Jr. raking it in through government contracts approved by the Trump administration. Unlike in Hunter's case, the U.S. government is paying millions of dollars to the president's sons. Plus, Trump is losing the information war on Iran, Bibi is oddly chummy with Putin—given his alliance with Israel's enemy Iran, the nation's debt is larger than our GDP, the governor of Louisiana is outright assaulting democracy, and Kinzinger explains why we need to celebrate heroes. Adam Kinzinger joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes Preorder Kinzinger's new children’s book, “That's What Heroes Do" Kinzinger's Substack FT story on the Trump sons/Kazakhistan company deal WSJ story on Trump sons/drone company deal Tim's playlist Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and LA on 5/12: TheBulwark.com/Events*For 30% off your order, head to BloodFlow7.com/THEBULWARK and use code THEBULWARK.

The bombshell voting rights ruling from the Supreme Court may have been years in the making, but Ossoff sees a tie-in to Trump's sore-loserdom and his inability to accept that black voters in Georgia were responsible for his 2020 defeat. And the senator expects a full-court press to get Alito and Thomas to retire so Trump can nominate MAGA fanatics to the court—and impose his most durable legacy on the country. Ossoff also discussed potential limits on aid to Israel, the geopolitical malpractice of the Iran war, and the brazen corruption of the Trump family’s overseas business deals. Plus, Luke Thomas explains the links between MMA and Trump world, the UFC’s key role in rehabilitating Trump after Jan 6, and the sportswashing behind the upcoming fights at the White House. Extra bonus: Tim weighs in on the Maine Senate race.Sen. Jon Ossoff and Morning Kombat host Luke Thomas join Tim Miller.show notes: Ossoff's campaign website Ossoff in 2024, explaining his vote for a resolution that would've blocked arms sales to Israel Luke's "Morning Kombat" Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

At home, POTUS shows how much he wants to be like an Arab despot, plastering his mug all over the place and deploying the Justice Department to fatuously claim that Comey’s use of seashell art can rise to a crime. But on Iran, he seems to have backed off his promise of a short war, and he’s making pretty wimpy threats against the regime. Plus, Disney’s new CEO is standing by Kimmel, Barney Frank has a warning for Democrats, and recent polling data is not backing up the Dems’ midterms bullishness—even if voter sentiment is very bad for Trump and the Republicans.John Heilemann joins Tim Miller.show notes Subscribe to The Bulwark's YouTube John's "Impolitic" podcast Tim’s livestream Wednesday at 8pm ET on Substack or YouTube Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events

Acting AG Todd Blanche, who watched Pam Bondi get fired, knows exactly what his assignment is: Go after every political enemy Trump wants targeted, and charge them—even without evidence of a crime. At the FBI, officials under Kash have pursued dubious or phony leads while career agents are seething over what the director has done to the place. Plus, the podcastistan wars may be doing real harm to the MAGA movement, influencers in the Trump echo chamber are looking pretty lame in comparison to key right-wing figures who are breaking ranks with him, and the latest on post-overdose looksmaxxer Clavicular.Will Sommer and Carol Leonnig join Tim Miller. show notes Carol's latest reporting on the case of assassination suspect, Cole Allen Carol's book about the Secret Service, "Zero Fail" and her latest, "Injustice" Will's new "False Flag" on Clavicular Will on a wild and unnecessary FBI raid TNL's live pod from Tuesday Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events Exclusive $25-off Carver Mat at https://on.auraframes.com/BULWARK. Promo Code THEBULWARK

Trump is a terrible president and he deserves to be criticized, even in personal terms. Our pro-democracy movement has shown time and time again that we can oppose him— and oppose any attempt at violence at the same time. Even putting aside POTUS's own hypocritical calls for violence or his celebrating the deaths of his enemies, Saturday's shooting was related to mental health issues and too easy of access to guns. Plus, Zelensky is the new leader of the free world, Trump looks like he's headed to a humiliating defeat in Iran, the left should work harder to not be false flag cranks, and a look at the Senate map in the context of America Firsters feeling betrayed by Trump's stupid wars and his attempt to redesign D.C. in his image. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: Monday's "Morning Shots" Ken Klippenstein's reporting on the shooting suspect, which Tim referenced David French on Zelensky (gift) Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego on 5/20 and in LA on 5/21: TheBulwark.com/Events For a limited time, get 60% off your first order, plus free shipping, when you head to Smalls.com/THEBULWARK.

Not only is the new hardline regime in Tehran now more likely to go rogue as a nuclear power a la North Korea, ordinary Iranians—who Trump and Bibi initially claimed we were rescuing—are also living under even harsher conditions. At the same time, the war has burned through billions worth of our critical weapons stockpile, a development that surely will figure into China’s calculations vis‐à‐vis Taiwan. This is the moment for Dems to reshape their brand and win back everyday working Americans. Plus, the settlers’ escalating attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, the Trump administration’s depraved treatment of Afghan refugees, any talk of aid for UAE stinks of Trump family corruption, and Dems need to fix their blue places while simultaneously working to win voters in the red ones.show notes Nick's nonprofit, Kristof Impact Nick's NYT column page Helen Keller International Kristof Farms Tim's playlist Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/EventsExclusive $25-off Carver Mat athttps://on.auraframes.com/BULWARK. Promo Code THEBULWARKGet 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

Trump has gone full “1984” with his claim that it’s a good thing that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. He also says that he saved some Iranian women from being executed, which the regime in Tehran called “fake news.” It’s a telling sign of the times when the public can’t figure out whether the White House or the Iranian regime is lying. Speaking of scam artists, Ben joins Tim to discuss his new film on cryptocurrency, "Everyone is Lying to You for Money." The industry is rife with crime, it sorely needs to be regulated, and some of the most unscrupulous people are behind it— including our president. Ben McKenzie and Sarah Matthews join Tim Miller.Upgrade your wallet today! Get 10% Off @Ridge with code THEBULWARK at https://www.Ridge.com/THEBULWARK #RidgepodWhen life feels overwhelming, therapy can help. Sign up and get 10% off at https://BetterHelp.com/THEBULWARK.show notes: More on Ben's film, "Everyone Is Lying to You for Money" Tim's interview with Ben from 2023 Tim and Catherine on Tucker's despicable attack on Catherine David Kirkpatrick on Trump's $4 bil in profiteering off the presidency, mostly from crypto Tickets for our Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA in May: TheBulwark.com/Events