The Bayesian Conspiracy

Crit-rat Vaden Masrani of the Increments podcast joins us to talk about the difference between Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Rationalism. We get kinda side-tracked, Eneasz isn’t happy about it. LINKS Vaden’s Podcast: Increments Eneasz’s post about this episode Winter 2027 AFFINE Alignment Seminar Takeoff Conference GPU World Short Story Contest Economies of Force — Seth Dickinson’s short story TBC 267 – Our HuggingFace Hack Episode Adam Majmudar on the Interpretability Breakthrough The Elephant in the Brain by Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson Scott Alexander’s Open Letter to Steven Pinker on AI Dillon Plunkett on the AI Pain Axis TBC 245 – Our AI Welfare Episode with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell TBC 218 – Our Bentham’s Bulldog Episode Vaden on Learning Bayesian Statistics #160: Bayesian Statistics vs Epistemology The Precipice by Toby Ord Beautiful Probability — Eliezer Yudkowsky When (Not) To Use Probabilities — Eliezer Yudkowsky No One Can Exempt You From Rationality’s Laws — Eliezer Yudkowsky Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years by Vaclav Smil A Case Against Strong Longtermism — Vaden Masrani The Case for Strong Longtermism — Greaves and MacAskill (September 2019 Draft) Pascal’s Mugging 00:00:01 – Intro & Feedback 00:20:02 – Vadan on Critical Rationalism 01:54:55 – Follow-up 01:58:51 – Thank a Supporter Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Coming Up Next: Returning in 2027!

Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven See this video on YouTube Apply to the Illiad Intensive Out of this Box – the AI Musical

A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast. LINKS Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns Clause stopped cheating Anthropic gave their AI a biolab Department of War going after Effective Altruism The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social movement” Our Episode #28 – Effective Altruism AI Pain Vector found AI Torture Chamber built The Curve impressions The first anti-slutcon tweet :/ SFF announcing they are defunding Wentworth Habryka re Wentworth HPMOR is a Tomione ship! The “Hard Problem” in a nutshell BayesWatch Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday

Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience. See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

We talk to keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares. LINKS keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack, don’t tell him we linked it!) Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on TikTok, Insta, YouTube, and Twitter Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday

We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big. LINKS Rick Rescorla, a 9/11 hero we talk about Our previous episodes on The Void pt1 and pt2, and GPT3 Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron. LINKS The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio) at HPMORpodcast.com BayesWatch Ordinary Abundance Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:01:14.000 – Side-projects and feedback 00:54:58.000 – Specificity 01:41:12.000 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom! Vishal’s Blog Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest

Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation. Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared. LINKS The Other Sexual Orientation A Bad Tweet The Sex & Sensibility Podcast The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow Chat, Full Video 00:02:32 – Follow-up on the HuggingFace Incident 00:14:56 – The Other Sexual Orientation 00:37:46 – A Bad Tweet 01:29:57 – Guild of the Rose 01:32:16 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus. maybe returning someday.

Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss plzdontkillus – https://portal.plzdontkillus.com/home?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Original video: