Sentinel Minutes

Executive summary Technology and AI: Anthropic said that its systems may be on the cusp of dramatically accelerating AI capabilities using AI. METR corroborated this. Anthropic's IPO will likely take place later this month, at a valuation of around 1.5 trillion dollars. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was revealed to be having an affair with a suspected Chinese spy. Absent a strong governance intervention, when will artificial superintelligence (ASI) be developed? Our forecasters’ 10/50/90th percentiles are 2027.2 (2026 to 2027.5); 2028.2 (2027.5 to 2029); 2047.5 (2032 to 2085). Unconditionally, will humanity go extinct because of AI in the next decade? Forecasters think there's a 6% (0.2% to 50%) chance. Before 2028, will the US government require a halt (including a pause or a ban) on frontier AI development that's in place for at least 6 months and intended to prevent or postpone the development of superintelligence? Forecasters think there's an 11% (2% to 25%) probability. If so, will humanity go extinct because of AI in the next decade? Forecasters believe there's a 2% (0.15% to 22%) chance. If so, will such a policy be in place in China within 12 months after this? [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(03:10) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:18) Geopolitics(13:21) North America(17:32) Middle East(18:59) Europe(19:23) Economy --- First published: November 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-warns-of-imminent-dramatically --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: Cyberattacks continue, including a record-breaking 6.3 billion dollars hack into Binance, a cryptocurrency exchange. Anthropic was hacked and its internal Slack discussions were accessed in an exercise by former DOGE employees. Will there be a cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 20 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency by the end of 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 53% (40% to 67%) chance. Geopolitics: The US is preparing for possible renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. Qatar mediated talks between the two sides in Doha that ended without an agreement. Will the US resume strikes on Iran before December 2026? We think there's a 79% (70% to 85%) chance. If so, will the US announce that they have ended before 2027? Forecasters assign a 66% (50% to 80%) probability to such an announcement. Unconditionally, will at least two Iranian power plants be targeted by the US before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 46% (30% to 70%) chance. Unconditionally, will Trump order the use of a nuclear weapon in Iran before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 1.8% (0.2% [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:41) Geopolitics(07:44) Middle East(13:23) Europe(15:53) North America(18:38) Latin America(19:08) Economy(21:32) Biorisk(21:44) Climate and nature --- First published: November 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/binance-suffers-record-breaking-63b --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Bond rates are rising Around the world, governments are paying more to borrow money. When interest rates on government debt rise, government borrowing may compete more with business investments, and growing interest payments can crowd out other government spending. Eventually, a country's debt burden can become unsustainable. In this report, we will explore what is happening in bond markets worldwide, with a focus on the United States, why it's happening, how countries might try to solve their debt problems, and what dangers might arise as a result. Many governments borrow money by issuing bonds; the issuing government usually promises to make interest payments to an investor at regular intervals, and nearly always promises to repay the principal after a fixed term, on a date called the maturity date. Most government bonds can be bought and sold among investors. Governments can offer bonds of any duration. The US Treasury offers short-term (up to one year), intermediate-term (2 to 10 years) and long-term securities (20, 30 years), and many other governments offer bonds of comparable maturities. The US 10-year Treasury yield is considered the benchmark yield, as it is a key indicator of long-term economic growth expectations, inflation expectations and market [...] ---Outline:(00:15) Bond rates are rising(03:57) Short-term rates: Is inflation that serious? Why the conflict between Trump and the Fed?(09:16) Drivers of long-term rate increases: Competition with AI funding and high sovereign debt levels(09:56) AI: The biggest capital bet in history(12:23) Punishment of fiscal imprudence: Return of the bond vigilantes?(15:06) What is next? Where is this going?(30:19) Forecasts(35:46) What can we do to prepare? --- First published: October 29th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/special-report-rising-bond-rates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: Two critical vulnerabilities were found in PHP, a language used in approximately 70% of all websites globally. An ongoing wave of cyberattacks is targeting a range of vulnerabilities. OpenAI said it uncovered two cases of its AI systems weakening internal monitoring systems. Will any FDIC-insured institution fail or be forced into a merger by December 31, 2027, and a cyberattack is cited as a primary cause? Our forecasters believe there's a 20% (10% to 35%) chance. Will a cyberattack cause a power outage affecting >50 thousand customers in the US, EU, or UK by December 31, 2027? Forecasters think there's an 8.2% (5% to 12%) chance. Will there be an AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 1 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency by the end of 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 69% (35% to 85%) chance. Geopolitics: The US is preparing to resume large-scale strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, while Qatari mediators are attempting to broker a deal between the two countries. Will an agreement be reached between the US and Iran by the end of 2026 to end hostilities? Forecasters [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive summary(02:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:46) Geopolitics(09:49) Middle East(15:02) Europe(17:01) North America(20:14) Latin America(21:33) Asia(22:16) Economy(24:43) Biorisk(28:03) Climate and nature --- First published: October 26th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/critical-cyber-vulnerabilities-sparked --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: Anthropic warns that AIs could soon be capable of self-replicating across household smart devices. A former OpenAI researcher claimed to have made progress on interpretability research, but others were skeptical. Will any widely used cryptographic primitive or algorithm be broken in the next 12 months? Forecasters estimate that there is a 31% (15% to 65%) probability. Will any Sentinel forecasters be substantially personally affected by a cyberattack before 2028? We estimated that there is a 30% (10% to 70%) chance. Forecasters estimate an aggregate 50th percentile range for Anthropic's valuation by the end of 2027, conditional on an IPO, at 2.7 trillion dollars (1.5 trillion dollars to 5 trillion dollars). Geopolitics: Trump ruled out using a nuclear weapon against Iran but didn’t rule out using a “MOAB” on one of its deeply buried nuclear sites. Ukraine says it still has limited access to Starlink. A Russian satellite is making the closest-known approach to a Western reconnaissance satellite to date. Will Trump use the “MOAB” on Iranian territory in the next six months? Forecasters estimate that there is a 46% (20% to 70%) chance. Will US Rep. Ilhan [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:51) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:01) Geopolitics(07:04) Middle East(08:33) Europe(10:34) United States(11:44) Africa(12:09) Economy --- First published: October 19th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/chrome-escape-found-trump-rules-out --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI released hundreds of solutions for mathematical problems that were found by its AI systems. Anthropic released more details about rogue AI incidents. Will an internationally active financial institution experience an AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses in excess of 1 billion dollars in either crypto or fiat currency before 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (17% to 68%) chance. Before 2028, will there be an incident carried out by one or more rogue AI agents that results in the deaths of at least 10 people or a total loss of at least 1 billion dollars? Forecasters think there's an 8.5% (0.3% to 50%) chance. Geopolitics: Trump announced a deal to buy diesel from Russia. The Houthis attacked an airport in Saudi Arabia. Will Russia meet the stated goal of delivering 1.8 million tons of diesel fuel to global markets by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 67% (45% to 80%) chance. Will total shipping traffic with transponders on in the Strait of Hormuz reach a 7-day moving average of at least 50 ships/day on any day before January 1, 2027? Forecasters think there's a [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(02:33) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:02) Geopolitics(07:05) Middle East(09:31) Europe(12:08) Asia(12:50) United States(13:46) Latin America(13:59) Africa(15:02) Biorisk(16:40) Economy --- First published: October 12th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/hundreds-of-mathematical-solutions --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Another Marine unit deploys to the Middle East, FTC investigates OpenAI Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI fired three safety researchers for allegedly sharing information with an outside AI safety organization. The FTC opened an investigation into multiple AI companies. Which company's model will have the highest score on Epoch's Capabilities Index at the end of 2026? Forecasters assign an aggregate 56% chance to Anthropic, 43% to OpenAI, 7.5% to Google DeepMind, 1.2% to SpaceXAI, 1.9% to another Western company, and 0.4% to a Chinese company. Will there be another publicly reported case of a Western frontier AI company having paused inference because of safety concerns with a model before 2027? Forecasters think there's a 49% (20% to 80%) chance. Geopolitics: The US is deploying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which has over 2K Marines, to the Middle East. Crude oil flows from the Middle East are nearly back to pre-Iran-war levels. The Iranian economy is increasingly tightly squeezed. Russia is now broadly targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before February 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 7.4% (5% to 23%) probability. [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(02:47) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:50) Geopolitics(08:52) Middle East(11:26) Europe(12:53) Asia-Pacific(13:03) United States(15:00) Latin America(15:03) Africa(16:04) Biorisk(19:34) Economy --- First published: October 5th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/open-model-reaches-mythos-hacking --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: OpenAI discovered more rogue AI agent incidents, and Australia's government said that a rogue OpenAI agent breached or attempted to breach some of its government systems. The US and China agreed to establish an AI incident communication line. Before 2028, will a rogue AI swarm hack a national government system of any country, or a major bank or investment firm, and demand a ransom of 10 million dollars or more? Our forecasters think there's a 6.2% (0.5% to 24%) chance. Geopolitics: Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day pause in fighting. The main parties in the US continue to engage in disputes over election integrity ahead of the midterm elections. Will a constitutional quorum of the US House (218 out of 435 members) elect a Speaker, swear in a Speaker, and be sworn in en masse no later than January 10, 2027? Forecasters believe there's a 95% (70% to 99%) probability. If so, will at least 425 members be sworn in en masse once the Speaker is sworn in? Forecasters think there's a 98% (95% to 99%) chance. If so, will the Democratic Party control the House [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive summary(03:53) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:34) Geopolitics(12:37) Middle East(15:36) Europe(18:18) Asia-Pacific(19:23) United States(23:48) Latin America(24:23) Africa(25:33) Economy --- First published: September 28th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/openai-reveals-more-rogue-ai-agent --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: Trump and Xi may discuss AI safety during their summit this week. Worries about AI may become politically polarized. Google Gemini also went rogue, and OpenAI revealed more worrying incidents. By November 1, 2026, will the United States and China announce or otherwise publicly confirm any policy agreed by both governments that is intended to: Slow, pause or ban the pace of frontier AI development? Our forecasters give this a 1.5% (0.5% to 5.0%) chance. Reduce risk from catastrophic misuse of powerful AI systems in the biological and/or cyber domains? They think there's an 8.1% (4% to 30%) chance. Reduce the risk of or from loss-of-control incidents? They think there's a 14% (5% to 45%) chance. If YouGov asks Americans in 2027 how concerned they are that AI could cause the end of the human race, what will be the percentage-point gap between liberals and conservatives who say they are very or somewhat concerned, on the last such survey? Forecasters’ aggregate 10th, 50th and 90th percentile forecasts are 3.3%, 20% and 37.4%, respectively. What about in 2028? Forecasters’ aggregate 10th, 50th and 90th percentile [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive summary(03:51) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:44) Geopolitics(10:47) Middle East(13:08) Europe(15:04) Asia(16:29) United States(19:35) Economy(25:05) Biorisk(25:41) Climate and nature --- First published: September 21st, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-safety-ahead --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: The resignation of Jacob Coxon from Anthropic over fears about existential risk went viral, and dozens of US politicians voiced support for AI regulation. Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk called for AI progress to slow down. OpenAI claimed that an AI system generated a solution to a Millennium Problem. Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google DeepMind claim that an AI solved at least one more Millennium Problem before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 85% (45% to 98%) chance. If so, what is the probability that at least one solution comes in the form of a proof that a conjecture or statement is universally true under all conditions, as opposed to a counterexample disproving it? They think there's a 51% (40% to 60%) chance. Will “advancement of computers/technology” and/or “artificial intelligence” be judged to be the most important problem facing the US today by at least 10% of respondents in Gallup polling before 2027? Forecasters think there's a 2% (0.1% to 10%) chance. Will this happen before 2028? They believe there's a 14% (5% to 25%) probability. The figure currently stands at 1%. [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(03:29) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:42) Geopolitics(11:45) Middle East(14:25) Europe(15:15) United States(16:00) Economy(17:51) Biorisk --- First published: September 14th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/dozens-of-us-politicians-call-for --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.