The "Third Anniversary Hot Take Takedown: Comeuppance" Edition

This week, Scott was joined by Natalie Orpett, Anna Bower, and Matt Gluck to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:“Some Assembly Required.” On Tuesday, President Biden gave his fourth and final speech as president to the U.N. General Assembly. He used the occasion to reflect on the many foreign policy decisions of his presidency, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the (thus far unsuccessful) pursuit of a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. What does this speech—and the year’s U.N. General Assembly more broadly—tell us about the state of his foreign policy legacy?“Keeping it Peachy.” Georgia’s state election board is in the news for rules changes that some allege could delay finalization of the 2024 election results, opening a possible door for Congress to manipulate the results. But what will these rules changes really mean? And what does it tell us about the potential for (and limits on) efforts to manipulate the outcome of the 2024 presidential election?“Memo-ries of the Way We Were.” Last week, the New York Times published excerpts from several memoranda prepared by then-President Trump’s White House Counsel addressing questions he appears to have posed regarding his ability to direct the Justice Department to investigate and prosecute individuals. Given Trump’s repeated pledges of vengeance if he were to return to the White House, what do these memoranda tell us about what he might be able to accomplish? And what obstacles may lie in his way, particularly in light of the Supreme Court’s intervening decision on presidential immunity?For object lessons, Natalie recommended Helen Phillips' new novel “Hum.” Anna stole Scott's object lesson and recommended season two of Rings of Power along with season three of Industry. Scott sang the praises of the best tiny speaker he ever did see (er, hear). And Matt Gluck dug into the sportsball file to urge listeners to begin following the Detroit Tigers' historic playoffs run. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare team members Alan Rozenshtein, Tyler McBrien, and RatSec newbie Anastasiia "Nastya" Lapatina to talk through the week's national security headlines, including:“A Shot Across the Rubicon.” Reports indicate that President Biden and his U.K. allies may be on the verge of giving Ukraine approval to use their advanced weapons systems to strike deep into Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat that doing so would be seen as an act of war. How risky a move is this? “TikTok on the DokKit.” Challengers of the federal law that would ban TikTok had their (first) day in court on Tuesday in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit. How were their criticisms received by the three-judge panel? And what will the implications of their ruling be for the law, and for TikTok more generally?“Dialing M.” Thousands of Lebanese—many of them members of the terrorist group and political movement Hezbollah—were killed or injured this week, when their pagers detonated in what many suspect was a complex terrorism operation by Israel. While some are proclaiming this to be the most accurate counter-terrorism operation in history, others are saying it was indiscriminate in its disregard for possible civilian loss of life. What should we make of this operation? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict?For object lessons, Alan endorsed the new Vince Vaughn series Bad Monkey for finally giving the nice guy a shot. Tyler recommended the album "Manning Fireworks" by MJ Lenderman (as recently profiled in The New Yorker). Scott doubled-down on a prior Alan recommendation by encouraging folks to check out sci-fi author Ray Nayler's latest book, "The Tusks of Extinction," and the exceptional collection of short stories he's published online. And Nastya urged listeners to check out Serhii Plohky's new book, "The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History." Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?“Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented terrorist attacks of 9/11. In many ways, they redefined the trajectory of U.S. national security policy (and politics) for decades. But today, the United States has shifted focus to a very different set of challenges. What is the legacy of 9/11 more than two decades after the attacks? For object lessons, Kevin readied our listeners for depression before recommending Neil Postman’s new book, “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” Ben endorsed the documentary Man on Wire as his favorite movie about 9/11, in part because it has nothing to do with 9/11. Scott urged D.C.-area residents not to sleep on the sublime joys of an outdoor show at Wolf Trap while the weather is still nice. And Eugenia shed her video game label to throw her support behind James Cameron’s latest maritime adventure, the (weirdly mutant-free) sea exploration documentary series OceanXplorers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?“An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How significant is the risk of escalation? And what will this mean for, among other things, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in relation to Gaza?“Send Me a Kiss by Wire.” Pavel Durov, the CEO of the Russia-based encrypted messaging platform Telegram—which, in addition to being the platform of choice in much of the world, has become a popular choice among criminals and terrorist groups due to its lack of content moderation—was arrested earlier this week in Paris, and is under questioning in relation to possible criminal charges arising from the criminal use of Telegram. What is motivating this move by French authorities? For object lessons, Quinta recommended "When a Department Self-Destructs," Jennifer Schoenefeld's dramatic account of the in-fighting within Pomona College's English department. Scott threw his endorsement in (alongside the Academy's) for the beautifully mumblecore-ish film "Past Lives." And Tyler urged listeners to check out Tanya Gold's upsetting account of the commercialization of the Holocaust, tellingly entitled "My Auschwitz Vacation."Note: Our discussion of Pavel Durov's arrest in France predated his indictment by French authorities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:“It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation? “Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?“Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI safety law, is set to pass the legislature this month and head to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk for his signature or veto. Many in the AI industry, as well as even some members of California’s own congressional delegation, oppose the bill on the grounds that it will harm innovation. Others, on the other side, worry that the bill doesn’t do enough to protect against AI harms. What’s actually in the bill, and what would its passage mean for the future of AI?For object lessons, Alan introduced us to his favorite flower. Kevin recommended the classic John Steinbeck novel “East of Eden,” while Quinta has been listening to a podcast about sex testing in elite track and field. And fresh off the appearance by Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr at the DNC, Molly dusted off this 2016 NYT Magazine profile of Kerr for those interested.Additional Links:Quinta’s Atlantic article on the failure to Trump-proof the governmentMolly and Quinta’s article on the limitations of the Jan. 6 Committee as a model for future investigative effortsPromotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?“The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?“But Our Emails!” The Trump campaign has apparently been hacked, with internal correspondence—including a lengthy vetting paper on vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance—being leaked to reporters. The campaign has blamed Iran, but without any apparent substantiation. Is this a real possibility? Or is it another example of the disinformation—regarding crowd sizes, Kamala Harris’s background, and other topics—that has become a prominent part of the campaign’s messaging?Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's very big national security news stories, including:“The Waiting Game.” The Middle East is on edge this week as it awaits a possible attack by Iran or Hezbollah on Israel in response to the suspected assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders last week, including the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while visiting Tehran for the swearing in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. What might a response look like, if there is one? And what does it mean for the region, including the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire?“Stay Weird, Austin.” Just days after the announcement of a long-negotiated plea deal for three of the four remaining defendants in the military commission trial relating to the 9/11 attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took the surprising and still largely unexplained move of intervening to rescind that deal and remove the convening authority that had approved it. What can explain Austin’s actions? What will they mean for the future of the military commissions?“A Favorable Exchange Rate.” In a surprise move, the Biden administration and several European allies concluded a massive prisoner exchange with Russia, which resulted in the release of 16 detained U.S. and European nationals and Russian dissidents, among them Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. In exchange, Russia received eight Russian agents, including convicted assassin Vadim Krasikov. Is this a win for the Biden administration? What does it tell us about the state of hostage politics—and its future?For object lessons, Alan expressed his new passion for pottery. Quinta endorsed synchronized/artistic swimming as her favorite Olympic event, thanks in part to a surprise cameo from Jason Momoa. Scott recommended the movie Thelma for a funny and compassionate take on aging. And Ben shared how a recent near-death experience led him to dump chalk dust outside the Russian Embassy.Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Kevin Frazier to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news, including:“KOSA Nostra.” An overwhelming majority of senators voted to pass the Kids Online Safety Act, also known as KOSA—a bipartisan piece of legislation that would impose new responsibilities on online platforms in looking after their underage users. Despite the 91-3 vote in the Senate, KOSA has faced strong opposition from a number of civil rights and internet freedom groups, and its path ahead in the House remains uncertain. What’s next for the bill, and what does its success so far say about the state of tech policy in the U.S.?“Herding Llamas.” The company formerly known as Facebook announced the release of a new AI large language model, Llama 3.1. Meta described the model as “open-source”—but is it responsible to release such a powerful model that way? And what does this mean for the AI arms race in Silicon Valley?“Keeping the Nine in Line.” Fresh on the heels of the Supreme Court’s ruling granting presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution, President Biden announced his support for a slate of reforms aimed squarely at the Court: a constitutional amendment ruling out presidential immunity, along with 18-year term limits and a binding code of conduct for Supreme Court justices. But any of these proposals would face a difficult road toward implementation. What is the White House’s aim here?For object lessons, Alan suggested that listeners might enjoy homemade cucumber agua fresca as a cooling summer beverage. Kevin is enjoying a new song by Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan. And Quinta recommended the movie I Saw the TV Glow.Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare teammates Molly Reynolds and Eugenia Lostri to talk over the week’s big national security news, including…“Bye Biden.” President Biden made the historic decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race over the weekend. He swiftly endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who now appears poised to become the Democratic candidate at the party’s convention next month. How might Harris be different from Biden, both as a candidate and as a president? And what will the change mean for the 2024 race?“The CrowdStrikes Back.” Countless businesses around the world found their Windows computers disabled this past week, due to a faulty update pushed out by the prominent cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The consequences continue to ripple out, including waves of canceled and rescheduled flights at numerous major airlines. What can this incident teach us about the security of our computer infrastructure? And are there ways to avoid similar incidents in the future?“Netanya-who?” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give his long-awaited speech to Congress later today. But the normally high-profile event has been overshadowed by recent news relating to the 2024 presidential race, potentially mitigating some of its intended effect. What should we expect from Bibi’s speech? And how will it impact progress towards a ceasefire in Gaza—and U.S.-Israeli relations more broadly?For object lessons, Alan recommended Jeffrey Eugenides’ novel "The Marriage Plot." Scott sent a love letter to the New York Times’ odd coverage of world culture, including this week’s exposé on Japanese backpacks. Molly gave the people what they want, with a new public radio podcast recommendation: NPR’s "Embedded: Supermajority." And Eugenia carried on a longstanding tradition of bringing in video game recommendations, this time for the cozy agriculture sim Stardew Valley. Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.