Inflation, bull market, and Trump’s global deals drive investor focus

US markets are quiet ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final decision of the year, with traders widely expecting a quarter-point “hawkish cut” and a fresh dot plot showing only one more cut penciled in for 2026. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the scope of any dissents will be key as officials juggle inflation, which remains roughly a whole point above target, a softening labor market, and a post-shutdown GDP rebound. The White House has also begun interviewing candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Governor Kevin Warsh, while NEC Director Kevin Hassett remains the perceived frontrunner. The AI trade faces its next test with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) reporting after the bell. Oracle must convince Wall Street that massive OpenAI-linked data-center spending and negative free cash flow are justified by future revenue and remaining performance obligations. At the same time, Adobe navigates investor questions about AI competition from tools like Google’s Gemini and how effectively it can weave generative AI into Creative Cloud. At the same time, bond yields on the 10-year and 30-year remain elevated even as markets bet on more easing next year, reflecting concerns over debt, inflation, and policy uncertainty. In media and tech, Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to buy the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in a $72 billion cash-and-stock deal, picking up HBO, Max and franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC, Friends, and The Sopranos while keeping that IP out of Paramount (PARA) and Comcast’s (CMCSA) hands. Analysts say the acquisition widens the gap between Netflix and its smaller rivals, but raises regulatory and integration questions. Apple (AAPL) is under fresh scrutiny after a wave of senior departures in operations, design, AI, and legal, even as iPhone and services demand keep the stock near record highs. Trending tickers include SpaceX, which is reportedly eyeing a 2026 IPO valuing the company near $1.5 trillion, GE Vernova (GEV) after an upbeat AI-driven power outlook, and Chewy (CHWY) on stronger customer spend and improving active users. Takeaways: Fed expected to deliver a 25 bp “hawkish cut” and update its dot plot at the final meeting of 2025 Internal dissents and the next Fed chair race add uncertainty to the 2026 rate path Oracle and Adobe earnings serve as a fresh stress test for the AI infrastructure and software trade Netflix to acquire Warner Bros' studio and streaming assets for $72B, tightening its grip on top Hollywood IP Apple faces a high-profile management reshuffle even as iPhone and services strength keep investors onside Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US markets open slightly lower as investors brace for the Fed’s final 2025 meeting and a wave of high-stakes corporate news. Nvidia (NVDA) scored a major win after the U.S. approved sales of its H200 AI chip to China, allowing Nvidia to reclaim billions in lost business while sending 25% of proceeds back to the U.S. government. President Trump told reporters that Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) will also be eligible for similar modified chip sales. Meanwhile, the battle for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has escalated. Paramount–Skydance submitted a $108 billion hostile takeover bid, backed by banks, Gulf sovereign wealth funds, and Jared Kushner — just days after WBD accepted Netflix’s (NFLX) $72 billion offer. Investors now await CEO David Zaslav’s response as Hollywood faces its most aggressive M&A fight in decades. The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting with Wall Street expecting a 25 bp “hawkish cut.” Officials are likely to cut rates but signal fewer moves ahead in 2026, citing a softer labor market and rising internal division on inflation vs. jobs. A Supreme Court hearing on presidential authority over independent agencies could also reshape next year’s Fed committee by giving the White House power to remove Governor Lisa Cook — potentially shifting the board more dovish. In trending tickers, Campbell Soup (CPB) reported weaker revenue and profit as consumers remain selective, but highlighted momentum from at-home cooking and announced a 49% stake purchase in pasta-sauce supplier Laina. CVS (CVS) raised its profit forecast, Home Depot (HD) issued cautious guidance ahead of its investor day, and AutoZone (AZO) missed profit expectations despite solid sales growth. Takeaways: Nvidia regains access to China with H200 sales; Intel and AMD may follow Paramount launches a $108B hostile bid for WBD after Netflix’s $72B agreement Fed expected to deliver a “hawkish cut” and signal fewer 2026 moves Supreme Court case could reshape Fed independence and future policymaking Campbell Soup posts softer results; CVS raises guidance; Home Depot and AutoZone under pressure Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US stocks are little changed to start the week as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a fresh read on the AI boom from Oracle and Broadcom. Futures point to a modestly higher open, with the Russell 2000 attempting to break out, while bond volatility and the VIX remain near year lows. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week, even as inflation remains roughly a whole point above target and officials remain sharply divided on how quickly to ease. Several regional presidents may dissent over sticky prices, while Governor Steven Myron is likely to push again for a deeper 50 bp move. The AI trade undergoes a key report from ORCL and Broadcom (AVGO). Stress test when Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO Oracle has slumped about 24% in two months as Wall Street worries about massive AI capital expenditures needs for a company without the cash machine of hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT), making it a “canary in the coal mine” for AI valuations. Broadcom, up nearly 70% year to date, continues to outpace the broader chip sector and is now being discussed as parNVDA).t of a “Mag 8” alongside Nvidia (NVDA Netflix’s (NFLX) $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) faces new regulatory and political scrutiny after President Trump said the deal could be a problem, just as Paramount Global (PARA) raised its competing all-cash offer to $30 per share. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) is also in transition as longtime investment chief and GEICO CEO Todd Combs departs for JPMorgan (JPM), underscoring how incoming CEO Greg Abel is already reshaping the conglomerate’s leadership and structure ahead of Warren Buffett’s year-end exit. IBM (IBM) is acquiring Confluent (⁠CFLT⁠) for $9.3 billion to enhance its data-streaming and AI capabilities, while Tesla (⁠TSLA⁠) slides after a Morgan Stanley downgrade highlights growing dispersion within the once-unified "Magnificent Seven" trade. Takeaways: Fed expected to deliver a third 25 bp cut of the year amid unusually public division over inflation and growth Oracle and Broadcom earnings seen as key tests of whether AI spending still justifies premium valuations Netflix’s $72B Warner Bros. deal faces political pushback as Paramount lifts its rival's all-cash bid Berkshire Hathaway loses top stock picker Todd Combs to JPMorgan as Greg Abel starts to put his stamp on the firm IBM buys Confluent for $9.3B to bolster AI data streaming; Tesla downgraded as Mag 7 leadership begins to fragment Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US markets open little changed as investors digest a blockbuster media deal and brace for delayed inflation data. Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to buy the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in a $72 billion cash-and-stock deal, scooping up HBO, Max, and iconic franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC, Friends, The Sopranos, and more. The acquisition caps a fierce bidding war that included Paramount Global (PARA) and Comcast (CMCSA) and marks Netflix’s biggest-ever swing into legacy Hollywood. Analysts say the move cements Netflix’s lead in streaming but raises questions about integration costs, labor, and regulatory risk, especially with Paramount still signaling it may keep fighting for a role in the process. At the macro level, Wall Street is watching the September PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, after its release was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year — slightly below the Fed’s prior 3.1% year-end projection — but the data is stale and unlikely to shift expectations for a rate cut next week. Fed officials remain split, with some policymakers worried about sticky inflation and others focused on labor-market softness. Apple (AAPL) is also in focus after a wave of senior departures, including longtime COO Jeff Williams, the company’s general counsel, its AI chief, and design lead Alan Dye, who is heading to Meta (META). While the exits raise fresh questions about Tim Cook’s eventual succession and Apple’s AI strategy, analysts note iPhone 17 Pro demand and services revenue remain strong, and the stock is still up double digits year to date. In trending tickers, Southwest Airlines (LUV) cut its 2025 profit outlook on shutdown-related flight disruptions and higher fuel costs, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) slid after AI server deals were pushed into 2026, and Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) rallied on its strongest quarterly sales growth in four years and a raised full-year outlook. Takeaways: Netflix to acquire Warner Bros. studio and streaming assets for $72B, grabbing HBO/Max and top global franchises PCE inflation print finally arrives after shutdown delay but is unlikely to change next week’s Fed decision Apple faces a high-profile management shake-up as key execs in ops, design, and AI depart Southwest trims guidance on shutdown-related disruptions; HPE pushes some AI server deals into 2026 Victoria’s Secret posts its best sales growth in four years and raises its full-year outlook Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US markets open mixed as fresh data shows the labor market cooling, and investors reassess where the AI boom is headed next. ADP reported that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, versus expectations for a gain of 10,000, with companies with fewer than 50 workers cutting 120,000 positions, and weakness was noted in manufacturing, information, and construction. The report reinforces the notion of a K-shaped economy. It has traders pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-bp Fed cut at next week’s meeting, even as Wall Street strategists remain broadly bullish on 2026, with S&P 500 targets clustered between 7,100 and 8,000. At the same time, the fulcrum of the AI trade may be shifting. Alphabet’s Gemini is gaining ground on OpenAI’s ChatGPT, with Sensor Tower data showing global monthly active users up about 30% for Gemini from August to November versus roughly 5% growth for ChatGPT, prompting talk that investors now favor Google’s diversified ad and search cash flows over OpenAI’s capital-intensive model. Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly cutting AI software sales quotas, raising new questions about enterprise adoption speed and monetization. Guests on the show argue that the next phase of leadership could shift from AI “winners” like Nvidia (NVDA) to AI “enablers” in power, construction, and data center infrastructure, as AI-related capital expenditures are forecast to exceed $7 trillion globally by 2030. On the consumer side, Macy’s (M) and Dollar Tree (DLTR) both beat on revenue and earnings and raised full-year guidance. Still, Macy’s stock is under pressure after management issued cautious Q4 commentary, stating that shoppers will remain “choiceful,” implying full-year declines in sales and profit compared to 2024. Reimagined Macy’s stores and luxury banner Bloomingdale’s posted standout growth, highlighting continued strength among higher-income shoppers, while Dollar Tree’s results underscore how stretched lower-income households are, prioritizing essentials over discretionary items. In trending tickers, Delta Air Lines (DAL) warned of a $200 million profit hit from the historic government shutdown, Marvell Technology (MRVL) jumped on an earnings beat and a multibillion-dollar deal for Celestial AI, and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rallied after a beat-and-raise quarter powered by sharper merchandising and buzzy celebrity campaigns. Takeaways: ADP shows private employers cutting 32K jobs in November, with small businesses hit hardest and markets pricing in a December Fed rate cut Gemini usage is growing faster than ChatGPT as investors debate whether Alphabet’s AI model is more sustainable than OpenAI’s spending-heavy approach Microsoft reportedly lowers AI software sales quotas, fueling questions about near-term AI monetization Macy’s and Dollar Tree both beat and raise guidance, but Macy’s cautious holiday outlook and K-shaped consumer trends weigh on sentiment Delta flags a $200M shutdown hit, Marvell buys Celestial AI, and American Eagle pops on better merchandising and upgraded guidance Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US futures are higher after Monday’s sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Dow (^DJI), and Nasdaq (^IXIC) all turning green and the Russell 2000 leading gains. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is holding above $87,000 after its worst drop since March, with traders watching key support at $80,000 and resistance near $110,000. Leveraged crypto ETFs MSTX and MSTU are down more than 80% this year despite Strategy injecting a $1.4B reserve to stabilize payouts. At the same time, institutional participation is rising: Bank of America now recommends a 1–4% crypto allocation, and Vanguard is allowing crypto-heavy ETFs and mutual funds on its platform. Treasury yields remain elevated after their biggest surge since 2008, while markets still expect a 25 bp Fed cut next week. Strategists are watching the U.S. dollar near the 100.5 level for direction. Kevin Hassett — a leading candidate for Fed Chair — is drawing attention for a new digital-asset policy blueprint that could shape 2026 crypto regulation. Takeaways: Futures rise after Monday’s selloff; small caps lead Bitcoin stabilizes above $87K; key levels at $80K and $110K Leveraged crypto ETFs sink 80%+ even after a $1.4B reserve Bank of America endorses crypto exposure; Vanguard reopens platform to crypto funds Yields stay elevated ahead of expected Fed cut; dollar strength remains a risk Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US stock futures are sliding as markets kick off December in risk-off mode. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) enters the month after barely securing a seventh straight monthly gain, while crypto leads the selloff. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell below $86,000, dragging Ether and Solana lower as thin liquidity and ETF outflows fueled renewed volatility. Strategists note Bitcoin’s December pattern tends to be flat-to-consolidating, with near-term ranges now pegged between $70,000 and $100,000 amid ongoing selling pressure . Markets are also watching the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in a 25 bp rate cut at the December 10 meeting, while Washington prepares for a major announcement: President Trump says he has selected the next Fed Chair and will reveal the choice “soon.” Kevin Hassett — the president’s top economic adviser — is widely viewed as the frontrunner, sparking debate over how dovish leadership could reshape rate expectations and the US dollar . Investors will finally receive delayed economic data this week, including the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation report, postponed during the shutdown. Bond yields are rising, with the 10-year climbing to 4.06% and the 30-year to 4.72%, even as the dollar weakens — a rare divergence tied to Japanese rate-hike speculation and shifts in global capital flows . Holiday shopping is also in focus this Cyber Monday. Adobe expects $14.2 billion in online spending today, with peak buying between 8–10 PM where consumers could spend $16 million per minute. Early Black Friday data shows shoppers remain highly deal-driven, with steady demand for electronics, furniture, and apparel. This week brings earnings from Macy’s (M), Dollar General (DG), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) — key reads on how both high-income and low-income consumers handled the shutdown period . In trending tickers, Synopsys (SNPS) jumps after Nvidia (NVDA) announced a $2 billion investment in the chip-software leader; MicroStrategy (MSTR) unveiled a $1.4 billion dollar reserve to avoid selling Bitcoin during downturns; and Accenture (ACN) launched a broad partnership with OpenAI to accelerate enterprise adoption of generative AI systems . Takeaways: Stocks fall as December starts in risk-off mode; Bitcoin slides below $86K Traders price in a 25 bp December cut as Trump prepares to announce the next Fed Chair Delayed PCE inflation data arrives this week; yields rise even as the dollar weakens Cyber Monday set for $14.2B in sales; shoppers chase deals and big-ticket items Synopsys surges on Nvidia’s $2B bet; MicroStrategy builds dollar reserve; Accenture expands OpenAI partnership Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US stock futures are little changed as fresh economic data shows a pullback in consumer spending and moderating wholesale inflation — a combination that strengthens the case for a December Fed rate cut. September retail sales rose just 0.2%, down sharply from August’s 0.6% jump, while core wholesale inflation (PPI excluding food and energy) cooled to 0.1%, its softest reading since spring . Markets remain volatile as investors debate whether the Fed will resume cutting rates in the coming weeks. Nvidia (NVDA) is under pressure after a report that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s TPU AI chips, signaling rising competition for Nvidia’s GPU dominance. Alphabet (GOOG) shares are surging, up 35% since mid-October, and have added more than $1.5 trillion in market cap. Analysts now say Alphabet could hit a $4 trillion valuation as early as next week if momentum continues — rivaling Nvidia’s 2023–2024 trajectory . Broadcom (AVGO) is also ripping higher as investors pile into alternative AI plays. Retail earnings remain mixed. Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) beat on core results but is sinking as investors worry about its costly turnaround of Foot Locker after the $2.5 billion acquisition. The company expects $500–$700 million in charges tied to store closures and write-downs . Best Buy (BBY) delivered its strongest same-store sales growth in nearly three years — up 2.7% — driven by upgrades in computing, gaming, and mobile, enough for the retailer to raise its full-year outlook for the second straight quarter. Meanwhile, investors are parsing broader retail signals as control-group sales (excluding autos and gas) rose just 0.1%, pointing to uneven consumer momentum heading into Q4. Still, major retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Gap (GPS) have turned in stronger Q3 results, underscoring a resilient — but highly selective — consumer. Takeaways: Retail spending cools; PPI softens — boosting odds of a December Fed cut Alphabet surges toward a $4T valuation as investors rotate into Google’s AI ecosystem Nvidia falls as Meta explores Google’s TPU chips; Broadcom rallies as another AI alternative Best Buy posts strongest comps in 3 years and raises guidance Dick’s Sporting Goods warns of $500–$700M in Foot Locker-related charges Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US stock futures are higher as markets try to stabilize after last week’s 2% drop in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC). Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is back above $85,000 but remains well off its weekend highs, underscoring a risk-off mood heading into a busy stretch of retail earnings and economic data . Investors are watching tomorrow’s PPI and retail sales reports for fresh insight into inflation and consumer strength heading into the holidays. The White House is also preparing a new framework to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for two years and introduce new eligibility limits to help offset a surge in health insurance premiums. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the announcement is expected this week — a development closely watched by insurers like Oscar Health (OSCR) and Centene (CNC) . Thanksgiving travel is also in focus: airlines expect to carry 31 million passengers, a record for the holiday week. Carriers including United Airlines (UAL) reported a major booking rebound once the government shutdown officially ended — with mid-November bookings up 16% from the previous weekend before the deal was reached . Retail earnings kick off with reports from Kohl’s, Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Dick’s Sporting Goods, each facing a different version of the same question: how resilient is the U.S. consumer heading into Q4? Abercrombie’s Hollister brand remains a standout with strong Gen Z momentum, while Kohl’s struggles to reverse years of negative same-store sales and is set to officially name interim CEO Michael Bender as its permanent chief executive . Fed commentary continues to steer markets. Governor Chris Waller reiterated support for a December rate cut, citing a softening labor market and expecting major downward revisions to the September jobs report. But Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled the opposite — saying she does not see a strong case for cutting in December and could dissent. Markets remain most focused on last week’s pivotal comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who opened the door to a near-term cut, shifting rate expectations sharply lower . Takeaways: Futures rise as markets attempt to stabilize after last week’s slide Bitcoin climbs back above $85K but remains well off weekend highs White House expected to extend ACA subsidies for two years amid premium surge Record 31 million travelers expected for Thanksgiving; bookings jumped after shutdown ended Retail earnings from Kohl’s, Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Dick’s Sporting Goods test consumer strength Fed officials split on a December cut; Waller supports it, Collins skeptical, Williams seen as the key signal Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US stock futures are higher after one of the wildest sessions of the year, with the S&P 500 logging its most significant intraday reversal since the peak of tariff turmoil in 2018 — surging 1.4% early before plunging 1.6% by the close. New York Fed president John Williams helped stabilize sentiment this morning, signaling he “still sees room” for a December rate cut, a notable shift given the stronger-than-expected September jobs report. Williams — part of the influential Fed “troika” alongside Powell and Jefferson — said policy needs to move “closer to neutral,” even as tariffs temporarily stall progress on inflation. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is extending a brutal decline, sliding below $85,000 after more than $1 billion in liquidations were hit in a single hour. The token is now heading for its worst month since the 2022 crypto crash, down more than 30% from its October record as cross-asset selling accelerates. Analysts warn the next key support sits near $75,000. Retail earnings reinforce the K-shaped consumer story: Walmart (WMT), Ross (ROST), and TJX (TJX) continue to win by delivering price-driven “value” across all income levels, while mid-tier shoppers remain stretched. Gap (GPS) surprised to the upside with strength in Old Navy and Gap brand, helped by lower discounting and viral marketing campaigns like its K-pop-backed “Milkshake” spot. Meanwhile, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is heating up. Paramount (PARA), Comcast (CMCSA), and Netflix (NFLX) have all submitted their initial — non-binding — bids. Paramount is the only suitor pursuing the entire company, while the others are targeting the studio's assets exclusively. Takeaways: Fed’s John Williams signals a December rate cut is “on the table,” lifting futures S&P 500 posts its sharpest intraday reversal in years; markets remain fragile Bitcoin plunges below $85K with $1B liquidated in one hour; worst month since 2022 “Value” retailers like Walmart, Ross, and TJX outperform as consumers hunt for pricing power Warner Bros. Discovery draws bids from Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix as strategic review accelerates Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, is your go-to source for smarter investing and market moves. Thoughts? Questions? Fan mail? Please email us at [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices