Game of Chance

There have been many attempts over the years to quantify defense. Despite claims that current stats describe 60% of fielding, it’s my opinion that little progress has been made. However, a new technology is coming which will soon change everything.

Spring is the time for guessing which players will have that long-awaited breakout season, which teams will surprise everyone and win a pennant, which ones will completely fall apart, and anything else that might happen in a baseball season. But calling them “predictions” doesn’t make them any better than “guesses,” even when the experts are talking.

Is Ty Cobb’s .366 lifetime batting average really an unbreakable record? What about Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs? Or Nolan Ryan’s 5714 strikeouts? And will anyone ever hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season?

The breaking of records is often surrounded by controversy. We have a tendency to defend the past as somehow superior to the present. Which of baseball’s great records are unbreakable because a player was extraordinary? And which because the game has changed? What records are the most interesting to think about?

In 1972 Steve Blass suddenly lost the ability to control his pitches. Thirty years later, the same thing happened to Rick Ankiel. We expect professional athletes to be stoic, unaffected by danger and injury, but the culture of baseball can have profound consequences on the performance of even the most elite athletes.

Right from its beginnings in the 1800s, baseball has been accompanied by a barrage of numbers. Why are statistics so important to baseball? Why did they develop so naturally, and why have they remained so fascinating for so long? What makes baseball different from football, basketball, and hockey?

In the past month two pitchers have been pulled from games while in the process of throwing a no-hitter. In general, pitchers today don’t throw as many pitches as they used to. What’s the deal with pitch counts? Do they really help keep pitchers healthy? Or do they prevent them from building the endurance they need to have long careers?

Derek Jeter is often referred to as the second best shortstop ever. Is this accurate? Where does Jeter fit among the greats?

Speed is an exciting part of baseball, but how important is it for an offense to have fast players? Whitey Herzog had a lot of success with fast teams, but Earl Weaver and many others have had success with slow-running power-hitting teams. Is there a place for the traditional leadoff hitter in today’s game?

Every year the Mets’ payroll is one of the highest in baseball and their results are mediocre. What’s going on? What are the problems and what do Mets fans have to look forward to?