Are you among the top performing managers? – Overconfidence and its causes | with Collin Raymond

In this episode, our guest Raymond Fisman explains to us the persistent challenge of corruption and the surprising ways in which political polarization and so called “wedge issues” help to sustain it. He shares his insights into why anti-corruption reforms remain elusive despite widespread public demand for honest governance and the creative measures some leaders have taken to battle corruption.  Raymond Fisman is the Slater Family Professor in Behavioral Economics at Boston University. His research explores the complex ways in which corruption and other informal behaviors influence markets, governance, and economic development. If you want to know more about Raymond’s research, you can check out his homepage.

In this episode, we explore the contributions of this year’s Nobel Prize laureates in Economics – Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson – and their work on the role of institutions in shaping economic prosperity. Our guest, Navid Sabet guides us through their core findings and shares his perspective on their influential research and its impact on the field of political economy. Finally, he connects these insights to his own research, examining how institutions affect immigration reform and economic opportunities.   Navid Sabet is Assistant Professor in Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt. His research interests lie in the areas of political economy, applied microeconomics and public economics. Navid mentions the Nobel Prize winners’ famous paper from 2001, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation”. You can find it here. For more info on Navid’s research, you can check out his homepage or his paper on Immigrant legalization and the redistribution of state funds in the US.  

In this episode, we dive into the world of online mediation mechanisms and how they can resolve disputes in digital marketplaces. As online transactions become more global and complex, the need for efficient, strategy-proof systems to mediate conflicts has never been more crucial. Selçuk Özyurt explains how these mechanisms should be designed to handle disputes fairly. In this context, we discuss properties like strategy proofness and efficiency and Selçuk explains under which conditions mediation mechanisms exist that fulfil these conditions.   Selçuk Özyurt is an Associate Professor of Economics at York University, with a research focus on game theory, mechanism and market design, and conflict resolution. The content of this episode is based on his paper Strategy-proof Multi-Issue Mediation: An Application to Online Dispute Resolution, which he co-authored with Onur Kesten.   --- Christmas raffle To participate in our Christmas raffle, just send an email  to [email protected] and let us know which book you want to win. Deadline of the raffle is 15 December 2024.

In this episode, we explore the fascinating world of social norms and how they influence behavior through the lens of game theory. What exactly are social norms, and why do they matter? Cristina Bicchieri explains how these unwritten rules shape our everyday actions and how game theory helps us understand when and why people follow or break these norms. We also delve into how organizations use this knowledge to drive social change, from improving sanitation to reducing corruption.   Cristina Bicchieri is the S. J. Patterson Harvie Professor of Social Thought and Comparative Ethics at the University of Pennsylvania. Her research focuses on the intersection of philosophy, psychology, and game theory, particularly in understanding how social norms develop and evolve. Cristina has worked with global organizations like UNICEF and the World Bank to apply her research in real-world settings. If you want to dive deeper into the topic of social norms, you can check out Cristina’s book “The Grammar of Society: The Nature and Dynamics of Social Norms”.  

In this episode, we delve into the high-stakes negotiations between the EU and the UK during Brexit, exploring the strategies and tactics from a game-theoretic perspective. Stefaan De Rynck provides an insider's view of the process, discussing key moments, the differing objectives of both sides, and the strategic approaches taken to achieve their goals. We analyze how the EU maintained a united front and the challenges posed by the UK's shifting leadership during the negotiations.   Stefaan De Rynck is Principal Advisor to the Director-General for Communication at the European Commission. During the Brexit negotiations, he served as Senior Advisor to Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator. His expertise lies in international negotiations and EU affairs, offering a unique perspective on one of the most complex political negotiations of recent times. He has shared his view on the Brexit negotiations in his book Inside the Deal: How the EU Got Brexit Done.

In this episode, we discuss overconfidence and its underlying psychological mechanisms. Our guest Collin Raymond shares his research (joint work with David Huffman and Julia Shvets) based on a field study he conducted with managers in the context of their Bonus payment. We discuss their findings on how managers make overconfident predictions about their individual future performance. In the study they can link the overconfidence to managers having an overly-positive memory of past performance. We finish the discussion by deep-diving into other facets of overconfidence.    Collin Raymond is Associate Professor of Strategy and Business Economics at the Johnson School of Management of Cornell University. His research interests span Behavioural Economics, Experimental Economics, and Microeconomic Theory. He focuses on how individuals make decisions under uncertainty and the cognitive biases that influence these decisions. You can find the paper Collin describes in the interview here.

In this episode, we delve into the common pitfalls that negotiators face which lead to value drain in dealmaking. Our guest Paul Papayoanou identifies four types of value-destructive behaviours and shares insights on avoiding these traps. He also outlines the characteristics of an effective dealmaker, emphasising the importance of being a savvy strategist who can balance toughness with fairness. Furthermore, we explore the role of preparation and reputation in successful negotiations, and how game theory can be applied to enhance negotiation strategies. Paul Papayoanou is a Senior Advisor with Decision Frameworks, a boutique consultancy based in Houston, Texas, serving clients worldwide. He has taught at the University of California San Diego and Harvard University, and is the author of "Game Theory for Business: A Primer in Strategic Gaming." Paul's extensive experience in game theory and dealmaking provides invaluable insights for anyone looking to improve their negotiation skills. You can read his recent article on addressing value drain in dealmaking here (or e-mail Paul for the pdf version: [email protected]). Paul has already been a guest on our show. You can check out his episode on how to bid in an auction here or here.

In this episode, we discuss with Eduardo Azevedo his research on adverse selection in insurance markets. Eduardo gives details on recent developments in genomic advances, also in light of the significant price decrease for obtaining the individual genome. We discuss the possible long-term effect on the insurance market (e.g. specific health insurances) if individuals had access to their genome and obtained their individual risk profile. Based on that we discuss the potential for adverse selection and Eduardos initial heuristic findings.   Eduardo Azevedo is Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on market design, applied microeconomic theory, and industrial organisation.

In this episode, we discuss with Greg Kubitz his research on loss aversion. Greg shares his research in which he targets to explain loss aversion using Game Theoretic approaches. He combines approaches such as the principal agent model to be able to look at loss aversion through the evolutionary lens considering realistic assumptions on biological constraints given through our neural system.   Greg Kubitz is senior lecturer in the School of Economics and Finance at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia. His research interests lie mainly within the field of game theory, with particular emphasis on information design and its applications to industrial organisation and behavioural economics.

In this episode, we engage with Yan Chen to unravel the underlying mechanisms of group identity and group discrimination. Yan discusses her research on ingroup favoritism. We learn how ingroup favoritism can occur even in assigned, artificial groups, and that people with a strong group identity even have a willingness to pay to shield themselves from outgroup information. Yan also provides insights into societal issues such as political polarisation and group-based conflicts.   Yan Chen is the Daniel Kahneman Collegiate Professor in the School of Information at the University of Michigan and a Research Professor at the U-M Institute for Social Research. Her academic work combines theoretical and experimental research to examine market and mechanism design, as well as public economics, providing insights into the mechanics of human interaction in social settings.