Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 9-Apr

US equities finished solidly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The simplest excuses for today's more optimistic tone are dovish takeaways from Powell's Fed comments yesterday and the lower-rate backdrop. Q1 productivity undershot expectations while unit labor costs up at a 4.7% SAAR (though up 1.8% across last four quarters).

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the market selling off into the close, after a big post-Powell boost; Dow Jones finished +23bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 34bps and 33bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and announced a larger-than-expected reduction in Treasury runoff caps from $60B to $25B, starting in June. ISM manufacturing index missed and moved back into contraction territory. JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected. April ADP private payrolls were ahead of consensus.

US equities ended lower Tuesday, near worst levels, with stocks more than erasing Monday's modest gains. Market was on the defensive today after hotter Q1 ECI data sparked a rise in Treasury yields. Growth concerns also in the mix after weakest consumer confidence print since July 2022 and lowest Chicago PMI since November 2022. Earnings a mixed bag ahead of some additional big tech reports over the next couple of days. 

US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.

US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P breaking a streak of three straight weekly declines and the Nasdaq up after four weeks down. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week's narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents--including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.

US equities ended lower Thursday, just off best levels as market regained some sharp early-morning losses. The market shook off some of the overhang from disappointing tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by this morning's economic data. The first read for Q1 GDP came in below consensus at a 1.6% SAAR, with the release noting increased consumer spending, but weaker private inventory investment.

US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, little changed after a strong start to week, with the Dow Jones down 11 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 10bps respectively. March headline and core durable goods orders beat though February revised down across the board. Today's $70B auction of five-year notes tailed after yesterday's strong two-year note auction. Visa was helped by accelerating US volumes.

US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Momentum, growth, long duration, small-caps, and lower quality were the big factor beneficiaries. Bounce continued today with help from lower rates/weaker dollar in the wake of softer flash PMI data. Some better earnings takeaways, particularly from several of the higher-profile names also helping. 

US equities ended higher Monday, off best levels. Market bounce seems to be gaining traction amid talks that recent selloff is more technical than fundamental. While macro is quiet, micro has very busy with approximately 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report this week.

US equities ended mostly lower this week as the market struggled to shake off more hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Recent Fedspeak supplied ongoing support for higher-for-longer rate narrative with Powell noting this week recent data has shown lack of further progress on inflation. Beyond more hawkish Fed commentary and volatile geopolitics, some other bearish narratives from this week included a big retail sales beat, flagging AI tailwinds as NVDA and SOX are both in corrections, stretched systematic long positioning, and spiking volatility with the VIX at six-month highs.