The Energy Flux podcast

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy reports from Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, where the conversation revolved around significant geopolitical shifts affecting the LNG market, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by QatarEnergy and Saudi Arabia.Seb expressed scepticism about the optimistic forecasts for LNG demand and highlighted the severe implications of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on global energy supply... before he was challenged to a dance-off with a robot on the exhibition floor.Sign up for the newsletter: https://www.energyflux.news/subscribeMusic licensed through Soundstripe. Code: RBM0CJDMLY7XGY3F, UO02CFURHFA8MQJA

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.Chapters00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsawLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelThe Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.TakeawaysOngoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy marketsModeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supplyListeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcomeDiplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertaintyChapters00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite44:00 Breaking News and Continued StalemateLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelDeep Dive explaining model scenariosHormuz model YouTube tutorialListener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system.Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.Chapters00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficitSign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities.Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability.They explore the market response, shipping and transit costs, deep geopolitical uncertainty, historical context, and the potential for broader escalation beyond the Middle East region. The conversation delves into the discrepancy between physical reality on the ground vs. cautious market pricing, and the inadequacy of conventional geopolitical analysis in the face of irrational actors on the global stage.Chapters00:00 Update on Middle East Energy War07:31 Initial Market Response14:17 Physical Reality vs. Market Pricing27:05 Regional Instability and Broader EscalationSign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news

In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets.The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks.They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply.And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf.Article referenced:US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux)Chapters00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market ConditionsSign up to the free Energy Flux newsletter (link)

In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy explores the evolving landscape of energy markets, focusing on the implications of gas pricing on the energy transition.He discusses the potential for cheaper gas to impact investments in renewable energy technologies and the mindset shifts among policymakers as energy crises recede.The monologue also delves into the future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the volatility of energy markets, emphasising the need for strategic planning in the face of potential shortages in the coming years.🎦 Watch video version: Energy Flux YouTube pageTakeawaysThe energy crisis is shifting towards a more stable pricing environment.Cheaper gas may hinder the urgency of the energy transition.Policymakers may deprioritise energy security as crises fade.Abundance in energy can lead to complacency in innovation.The LNG market faces uncertainty with potential project cancellations.Investment in LNG infrastructure is becoming less attractive.Gas volatility underscores the need for strategic energy planning.The LNG industry itself is warning of a supply crunch in the early 2030s.Future energy policies must consider the potential for sudden market swings.Chapters00:00 Talking Gas Outside the Kings Cross Gasometer Buildings03:06 The Impact of Cheap Gas on Energy Transition04:37 Policy Challenges and Mindset Shifts08:17 The Future of LNG Projects and Market Dynamics14:34 The Paradox of Energy Abundance and ComplacencyFor more info and to subscribe, head to www.EnergyFlux.news

In this episode, ⁠Energy Flux ⁠founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy. Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion. He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures. Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement.Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power? Key Topics Discussed:The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect.To find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to ⁠www.EnergyFlux.news⁠.

In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan.The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve.The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price.Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year.He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times.The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.

Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy tours the Gastech exhibition while reflecting on the main themes from the four-day conference.👉For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www.EnergyFlux.news SummaryIn this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing, and the political implications of US LNG exports.He explores the future of US natural gas production and shares insights from his experiences at the event, emphasizing the complexities and challenges facing the energy sector.Key topics & takeawaysGastech was a momentous event at a significant historical junctureThe disconnect between public statements from industry leaders and market realities is wideningOver-investment in LNG capacity is reshaping the global glut depth & duration outlookTransatlantic margins will face significant compression (as detailed in last week’s Hot Take)North-West Europe-TTF price dislocation as lead indicator for distressed LNG cargo pricingHow merit order economics and cost inflation affect LNG investment attractivenessThe history of LNG, and the difference between conventional integrated export projects vs US LNG second waveThe political & economic implications of gas/electricity price inflation in the domestic US marketCan US shale production growth keep up with competition for upstream gas resources (LNG vs data centres)? Read more & subscribe at 👉 www.EnergyFlux.news 👈