Breakouts, Busts & Bold Predictions | Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 861

We reference volume constantly, but how much does opportunity actually predict fantasy success? 🏈 In this solo data episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price digs into six years of numbers to measure exactly how much fantasy football volume matters at every position. Data used in this episode. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Garret found rock solid correlations at quarterback, running back, and tight end. Roughly 80 percent of top 12 quarterbacks in opportunity finished top 12 in points, running backs landed near 76 percent, and tight ends topped the group as high as 84 percent. 🔥 If you are chasing this season, target the guaranteed touches. Wide receiver was the weakest link, with only 64 percent of high volume target earners translating to a top 12 finish thanks to spike weeks and shaky quarterback play. 🤔 The takeaway is simple: chase talent for long term dynasty upside, but lean on opportunity for win now rosters. Line it up with the latest Dynasty Rankings. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 02:43 QB Position 08:25 RB Position 12:29 WR Position 16:32 TE Position 18:43 Dynasty Takeaways Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Some dynasty assets could win you a title or get cut by next summer, and those wild swings are exactly what make them fascinating. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price and Andrew Mott break down the most volatile assets in dynasty, players with sky high ceilings and terrifying floors. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Garret sweats the range on TreVeyon Henderson stuck behind Rhamondre Stevenson, questions whether George Pickens can repeat his Dallas breakout, and still holds out hope for Marvin Harrison Jr. in a make or break year. 🔥 Andrew calls Travis Hunter the poster child for volatility given the wide receiver versus cornerback uncertainty. On the lower tier swings, Andrew likes the mystery box upside of Matthew Golden and Jonathan Brooks, plus a murky Washington backfield led by Jacory Croskey-Merritt. 🤔 Garret stays in on Baker Mayfield if he can stay healthy in Tampa Bay. Check the latest Dynasty Rankings before you gamble. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 02:33 Matthew Golden 06:02 TreVeyon Henderson 09:04 Jonathon Brooks 12:13 George Pickens 15:14 Travis Hunter 19:45 Baker Mayfield 22:59 Jacory Croskey-Merritt 25:31 Marvin Harrison Jr. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Draft season is winding down, but plenty of managers are still picking late into the summer. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price and Andrew Mott run through their final dynasty rookie mock draft for the 2026 class, spotlighting the risers, the fallers, and the values worth targeting. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube The top of the board stays chalky, with Jeremiyah Love locked in at 1.01 and Carnell Tate cemented as the top receiver. 🔥 Andrew bets on Jordyn Tyson over Fernando Mendoza, though Garret keeps Mendoza as his first quarterback, and both love Makai Lemon sliding into a plum Philadelphia role. From there it gets spicy. Garret champions KC Concepcion and camp riser Denzel Boston, while super flex managers eye quarterback Ty Simpson and pass catching tight end Eli Stowers. 🤔 The duo also dig into Day 2 dart throws like Omar Cooper Jr. before the class thins out. See the full breakdown in our latest Rookie Mock Drafts. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 00:41 1.01-1.06 06:05 1.07-1.12 13:16 1st Round Recap 14:47 2.01-2.06 24:09 2.07-2.12 31:11 2nd Round Recap 31:51 3rd Round 38:59 3rd Round Recap Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sometimes the smartest dynasty move is paying up for a stud instead of chasing a discount. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price and Andrew Mott make the case for dynasty buy high players, the cornerstone assets worth a premium in 2026. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Andrew opens with Ashton Jeanty, and Garret goes all in on the entire top tier, happily overpaying for Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jeremiyah Love, De'Von Achane, and Omarion Hampton. 🔥 He also loves the ceiling on Quinshon Judkins in a run heavy Cleveland scheme now that he is healthy. On the pass catchers, Andrew buys Tetairoa McMillan as a locked in WR1 and pounds the table for tight ends Tyler Warren and Kyle Pitts. 🤔 He even pays up for Bo Nix as a sneaky super flex QB1, while Garret closes with Zay Flowers at his rising price. Compare every target with the latest Dynasty Rankings before you send the offer. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 02:17 Ashton Jeanty 04:50 Top 6 RBs 07:11 Jeremiyah Love 10:12 Tetairoa McMillan 13:27 Tyler Warren 18:03 Bo Nix 22:58 Quinshon Judkins 25:52 Kyle Pitts 28:39 Zay Flowers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every season a few big names crater, and the smart dynasty managers pounce on the discount. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Rich Dotson, Matt O'Hara, and Garret Price grab the air pumps and debate which disappointing 2025 players are primed for a dynasty bounce back. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube The crew is fired up about Breece Hall behind an improved Jets line and a quarterback who should feed him targets, and they go even higher on Saquon Barkley, betting a redesigned Eagles scheme and a healthy line push him back into the top five conversation. 🔥 They are split on Jordan Addison, leaning toward a high end WR3 in a crowded Minnesota room, while Terry McLaurin looks like a strong WR1 buy now that Jayden Daniels is healthy. 🤔 Jordan Love gets a QB1 range projection if Green Bay opens things up, and DJ Moore is a sneaky one year target in a pass hungry Buffalo offense. Check the latest Dynasty Rankings before you buy the dip. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 05:30 Jordan Addison 12:36 Breece Hall 19:43 Jordan Love 24:57 FFPC 27:20 Terry McLaurin 32:50 Saquon Barkley 41:49 DJ Moore 49:37 Roster Rescue Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dynasty trade season never sleeps, and the Nerd Herd sent in some spicy offers. 🔥 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, ⁠Rich Dotson⁠, ⁠Matt O'Hara⁠, and ⁠Garret Price⁠ react to real listener trades, grading each one based on format, roster build, and timing. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 ⁠Apple Podcasts⁠ 🎙️ ⁠Spotify⁠ ▶️ ⁠YouTube⁠ The crew debates whether two firsts are too rich for Colston Loveland next to Dalton Kincaid, and whether shipping Jonathan Taylor and Chris Olave for Breece Hall, Ladd McConkey, and Kenneth Gainwell is worth it for a reigning champ. 🤔 They love a clean rebuild flip of Justin Jefferson for Carnell Tate plus premium picks, and they smash accept Puka Nacua landing for Rome Odunze and TreVeyon Henderson. The theme of the show: it is about your team, not the player. A strong contender chasing Brock Bowers and Zay Flowers with Tetairoa McMillan and Harold Fannin gets a green light, while a Christian McCaffrey for Jayden Reed rebuild deal sparks a patience debate. 🏈 And in a start 11 league, even trading Jaxon Smith-Njigba for James Cook, DeVonta Smith, and Garrett Wilson starts to make sense. Check the latest ⁠Dynasty Rankings⁠ before you hit accept. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 ⁠Rookie Big Boards⁠ 📝 ⁠Rookie Mock Drafts⁠ 📈 ⁠Dynasty Rankings⁠ 📱 ⁠Dynasty Nerds App⁠ 🧱 ⁠IDP Hub⁠ 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first ⁠FFPC Startup Team⁠! 00:00 Start 09:51 Two Future 1sts for Colston Loveland? 15:10 Jonathan Taylor and Chris Olave for Breece Hall and Ladd McConkey 22:20 Selling Justin Jefferson for Carnell Tate and Picks 25:45 Paying Up for Brock Bowers 30:13 FFPC 32:10 Should a Rebuilder Sell Christian McCaffrey? 39:28 Rome Odunze and TreVeyon Henderson for Puka Nacua 45:11 Trading JSN for Three Starting Assets 53:01 Roster Rescue Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Every year a forgotten wide receiver comes out of nowhere to post WR1 weeks. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price and Andrew Mott hunt for the next Michael Wilson, the slept on receivers with a real path to a breakout in 2026. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Andrew leads with Quentin Johnston, whose fifth year option and a new Mike McDaniel offense set up a leap, while Garret follows fresh contracts to Jayden Reed in Green Bay. 🤔 They also love the pedigree of Ricky Pearsall in a thinning San Francisco receiver room, plus Josh Downs stepping into two receiver sets now that Michael Pittman is gone. For the true dart throws, Garret buys Malik Washington and Jalen Nailor in wide open Miami and Las Vegas target trees, while Jayden Higgins could soar if Nico Collins misses time in Houston. 🔥 Andrew rounds it out with Jalen Coker, provided Bryce Young can support a second weapon. Cross check every name against the latest Dynasty Rankings before you buy. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 01:42 Quentin Johnston 05:37 Jayden Reed 08:41 Ricky Pearsall 12:15 Malik Washington 16:51 Josh Downs 19:52 Jayden Higgins 22:58 Jalen Coker 25:29 Jalen Nailor 30:29 Roster Rescue Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fantasy football is really just a math problem. 📊 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Garret Price and Andrew Mott share the fantasy football stats that matter most, the numbers they actually use to draft, trade, and spot breakouts. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Andrew breaks down rookie hit rates by draft round, and the gap is massive: a round two running back hits around 70 percent of the time, while a round two wide receiver sits near 35 percent. 🤔 He also maps out breakout age cutoffs, which is why he is cooling on Dalton Kincaid and weighing whether RJ Harvey or Jonah Coleman can still pop, while Jonathon Brooks stays young enough to buy. Garret hunts for volume, digging into team target share by position and pass play percentage to find where the opportunities live. 🔥 That is why he is nervous about Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a run leaning Seattle offense but intrigued by the raw volume around Josh Jacobs in Green Bay. Pair it with the latest Dynasty Rankings to pressure test your own roster. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 00:56 Rookie Hit Rates 11:26 Coaching Changes 14:02 Breakout Age 20:35 Tracking % Of Passing Plays Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nobody wants to move their 2027 picks right now, so how do you rebuild around a class everyone is hoarding? 🏈 In this listener requested episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Rich Dotson and Matt O'Hara lay out a dynasty rebuild strategy for stockpiling future draft capital. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube The core idea is simple: be willing to lose a trade today to win the rebuild tomorrow. Ship aging veterans like A.J. Brown and Tee Higgins to contenders for 2027 firsts, and do not sleep on 2028 picks, which headline a deep, quarterback heavy class. 🤔 The crew also loves targeting 2027 seconds, since those late picks can be packaged to jump back into the top of a loaded draft. Rich and Matt argue even cornerstones are in play if the return is right, flipping the likes of Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, or a top tight end like Trey McBride for a top five pick plus extras. 🔥 The thirst gets real in season once injuries hit, so identify the shaky contenders now. Check the latest Dynasty Rankings and mock it out with the Rookie Mock Drafts before you pull the trigger. 00:00 Start 01:05 What To Do With 2027 Picks 03:12 Which Veterans Should Rebuilders Trade? 14:06 Building a Complete Dynasty Roster 18:42 Targeting 2nds From Bad Teams 24:06 FFPC 25:04 One Early Pick vs. Multiple Late Picks 28:31 Targeting 2028 and 2029 Picks From Contenders 30:57 Fantasy Roster Rescue Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Some dynasty careers hang in the balance this season. 🏈 In this episode of the Dynasty Nerds Podcast, Rich Dotson and Matt O'Hara break down the dynasty prove it years, the players whose 2026 will make or break their long term value. Listen to This Episode: 🎧 Apple Podcasts 🎙️ Spotify ▶️ YouTube Marvin Harrison Jr. headlines the group after two underwhelming seasons, still riding draft pedigree while a new coaching staff and quarterback try to unlock him. 🤔 Brian Thomas Jr. looks like a prime buy window after a drop plagued sophomore slump, and Keon Coleman needs to seize a wide open Bills depth chart before the market moves on for good. The crew is betting on a bounce back from Jayden Daniels, whose only real question is durability, plus breakouts from Jack Bech and Jayden Reed in wide open target situations. 🔥 They also dig into Cam Skattebo, the workhorse they loved on tape, and debate whether CJ Stroud has already slipped. Stack it all up against the latest Dynasty Rankings before you buy or sell. Explore more tools and resources to stay ahead of your league. 📊 Rookie Big Boards 📝 Rookie Mock Drafts 📈 Dynasty Rankings 📱 Dynasty Nerds App 🧱 IDP Hub 👉 Upgrade your strategy and dominate your dynasty league. FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Startup Team! 00:00 Start 03:54 Marvin Harrison Jr. 14:06 Keon Coleman 20:28 Jayden Daniels 27:38 Jack Bech 33:13 FFPC 34:55 Brian Thomas Jr. 46:44 Jayden Reed 52:15 Cam Skattebo 58:48 Fantasy Roster Rescue Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices