Jason Furman: Where is the Economy Now—and Where Will it Be in November?

Donald Trump will face major geopolitical challenges when he takes office. In this Conversation, Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey and Finland and Under Secretary of Defense, shares his perspective. As he explains, Trump will face major decisions on all areas of the geopolitical landscape early in his term. Edelman argues that Israel’s military successes have weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance” and opened up new opportunities—but also raise the threat of Iranian nuclear breakout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages, the situation in Europe remains uncertain, and China’s military buildup increases. To meet the threats around the globe, we need to build up the military and defense industrial base, embrace American leadership, and strengthen our alliances. Will the Trump Administration do so?

How well might the political and legal norms of constitutional government fare in the second Trump administration?To discuss, we are joined by Jack Goldsmith, distinguished law professor at Harvard and former Assistant Attorney General in the Office of Legal Counsel. As Goldsmith explains, Trump has expressed ambitions to exercise unprecedented control over the federal government, with plans to change the Civil Service and administrative agencies, and wield the pardon power aggressively, among other methods. While emphasizing the broad powers the president has to shape policy and personnel, Goldsmith discusses the future of checks and balances that protect the rule of law. To preserve the guardrails of government, Goldsmith emphasizes the role and responsibility of Congress, political appointees, and bureaucrats maintaining fidelity to constitutional duties.

What should we expect in Donald Trump’s second term?To discuss, we are joined by John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the Trump White House from 2018 to 2019 and with distinction in many prior Republican administrations. Drawing on insights from working closely with Trump in his first term, Bolton shares his perspective on what the second term might look like. Bolton argues Trump selected his cabinet nominees for “fealty” rather than competence—and he discusses the politicization and chaos in government agencies that could result. Bolton also considers the role of the Senate as a potential check on the president, and reflects more broadly on Trump’s approach to the presidency.

What do the results of the 2024 elections tell us about the state of American politics? Where might we be in 2026 and 2028?To discuss, we are joined again by Ron Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN. According to Brownstein, the presidential election was a “national verdict of voters [who] were dissatisfied with what they got over the past four years. And whatever doubts they had about the alternative seemed to them less risky than continuing on the course that we are on.” As Brownstein explains, the data show many of Trump’s own voters had serious concerns about Trump and his policies. To this end, he argues that elections in 2026 and 2028 likely will turn on whether Trump pursues extreme and unpopular policies that cater to his base or governs in a way that appeals to the broader electorate.

Where does the race stand two weeks before Election Day? To discuss, we are joined by Ronald Brownstein, a senior editor at The Atlantic and a senior political analyst at CNN.  According to Brownstein, the election is “closely balanced on the knife’s edge” and very subtle shifts among coalitions in the swing states easily could change the outcome. Brownstein shares his perspective on possible paths to victory for each candidate based on the current data, and what we ought to look for on the campaign trail and in the polling during the last days of the campaign. Following the election, Brownstein will rejoin us for a special Conversation to analyze and reflect on what the 2024 returns reveal about the electorate—and what we can learn from these trends about how our politics might play out in the years ahead. 

How would the economy do under a Trump or Harris administration?  To discuss, we are joined again by the distinguished Harvard economist Jason Furman, who was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in President Obama’s second term. Furman shares his perspective on a wide variety of subjects including tariffs, trade policy with allies and adversaries, the dangers of a politicized Fed, inflation, and immigration. Forecasting economic policies under the two potential administrations, Furman contends that Kamala Harris would track Biden’s policies to some degree, but “her instincts are just a little bit more towards wanting to pal around with CEOs than labor leaders relative to Joe Biden.” As for Trump, Furman argues that “there’s one Trump, with responsible advisors, who doesn’t do anything he says on the campaign and things turn out basically fine. There’s another Trump who does follow through, and that could be a downside for growth and a large downside in terms of higher inflation.” 

We face an ever more dangerous geopolitical environment. In this Conversation, Princeton professor and AEI nonresident senior fellow Aaron Friedberg analyzes America’s foreign policy challenges and considers how a Harris or Trump administration might approach the threats we face. According to Friedberg, the cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, North Korea “has grown more and more sophisticated and complex” in recent times, making the challenges in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia more difficult to address—as well as more interrelated. Friedberg argues that the volatility in American domestic politics makes predicting the American approach to countering these threats increasingly uncertain. As he puts it, “If Trump comes back, the range of possible policies in each of these areas is just much wider than would have been typically the case in the past”—and a key question with Harris is "To what extent does she share [Biden’s] gut instinct regarding American leadership?"

How might Tuesday’s debate shape the race in the weeks ahead? How can Harris capitalize on her performance? Will the debate affect the results in November?  With less than eight weeks to Election Day, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville shares his advice to the Harris campaign and analysis of the race. As he puts it: “People still, for better or worse, know Trump. [Harris] had a great debate, a great convention, but still has some more to fill out here.” According to Carville, now Harris might benefit from giving speeches on issues from the economy to foreign policy. The Democratic base, he argues, “will allow her great leeway in appealing to more unaligned voters—and Trump doesn’t have that.” Carville and Kristol also discuss whether another debate will happen, Trump’s struggles to focus on issues, and possible key moments ahead in an extraordinary campaign.  

Where do things stand in the race after the Democratic convention and before the presidential debate? When veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik joined us the day after Biden’s withdrawal from the race he explained why the next month could be decisive in the fight to define Harris. Reflecting on the first five weeks of the campaign, Sosnik argues that she has been successful: “so far Harris is winning the battle about the campaign being about change, and she is the change candidate—making the campaign about the future and not about the past.” However, he cautions that the race remains very close. As he puts it: “Harris is still running behind the Biden-Harris numbers in 2020, and measurably behind. So, she does have more ground she’s going to need to gain.” Sosnik shares his in-depth analysis of what the campaigns might do going forward, why the upcoming debate may be the most consequential in contemporary history, and the current dynamics in battleground states where the race will be decided.

Where do things stand in the race now that the matchup is set?According to veteran Democratic strategist James Carville, the replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris has improved prospects for the Democrats—though “not as much as some people think.” As he puts it: “It’s like I tell people, if you have an infected wisdom tooth and you go to the dentist and they pull it out, you feel on top of the world—[but] God, you really don’t feel any better than you would if you never had the infected wisdom tooth.”  In a race that may be won at the margins, as in 2016 and 2020, Carville explains that Harris must define herself and her candidacy successfully where she still isn’t well known. According to Carville, she has the opportunity to brand Trump as “past, yesterday, and stale”—but the Harris-Walz campaign must have a forward-looking message and run on concrete policy proposals. Carville also discusses the selection of Walz, the mood at Mar-a-Lago since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, how the Trump strategy against Harris might develop, and offers advice about whether to have and how to handle a Harris-Trump debate.