Conversations Among The Ruins

Task Force Iron Gate is supposed to close 2,000 kilometers of Iranian land border from an office in Florida. Operation Economic Outcast was sold as “economic D-Day” two and a half months ago, and the fact that Washington needs another blockade tells you how that went. Meanwhile October saw more ships hit heading into the Strait of Hormuz than any month of the war, transit costs have jumped from a dollar a barrel to thirty five, and the US Navy is spending billions escorting tankers that still get hit. Nobody is calling this escalation, but that is what it is.Peter argues the war has been on autopilot since April because there is no military solution, and that Trump keeps pulling back from strikes because some sane part of him knows it. The real danger may come later: an Eisenkot government with a comfortable relationship with Schumer and Jeffries could hand the Democrats a war they can call their own. Charlie asks what this has done to the US military’s reputation when CENTCOM is posting a $20 million bounty for information on the nuclear program the war was supposedly about, and launching a podcast to fix its image.Then Ukraine. Kiev is on a power schedule of three and a half hours a day with warnings of 36 hour outages, residents are being told to dig latrines, the Northern Bridge has been hit, and the Russians have started striking the one substation keeping the capital alive. Peter says he will be surprised if Ukraine is holding on in any fashion six months from now. Plus Poland’s constitutional crisis, the Krakow shooting, and Budanov fined for speaking Russian.Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:03 Iron Gate: a war on autopilot4:48 Economic Outcast flopped, now this6:43 Pakistan, Turkey and the border game9:56 “Self defense” strikes on Qeshm and Jask15:04 15% of Hormuz ships hit, $35 a barrel transit20:17 Boiling the frog toward full war21:10 Trump’s temptation, the IDF waits for Eisenkot24:28 Will the Democrats back an Eisenkot war?30:09 CENTCOM’s $20M bounty and a shattered reputation40:29 The Pentagon podcast and the hegemonic mindset49:29 Kiev: three and a half hours of power a day55:46 This winter something breaks1:02:27 Poland’s constitutional crisis and the Krakow shooting1:06:47 Budanov fined for speaking RussianGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

The midterms were a referendum on the Iran war and the verdict was overwhelming. Trump’s response has been to show reporters the drapes, the marble and the new helipad. His advisors call him dazed. But Peter argues he will come out of it the way he always does, by hearing from Fox News, the donors and Netanyahu that the MOU was his surrender document. The three paths inside the administration, the Vance negotiated settlement, the Bessent economic strangulation, and the Hegseth-Netanyahu strike, collapse into one. Strangulation is just a delay, and the Iranians will not sit there and slowly die. Peter puts the odds of a strike in the next two months at over 50 percent, and says if we make it to the new Congress without one, the odds flip.Meanwhile Israel is changing its face, not its direction. Eisenkot has the votes to form a government, with Arab party support he refuses to reward. Peter thinks the IDF, which was burned once by Netanyahu’s pre-election strike push, may simply wait for a prime minister who is one of their own. And when Eisenkot asks, the Democrats who spent three years distancing themselves from Netanyahu will line up right behind him, then take their blue wave as a mandate to escalate in Ukraine.Which leads to the part of the episode that lands hardest: the press gangs, the torture pits, the man with the colostomy bag seized for the front, the 14-year-old who tried to stop it, and the door-to-door filmed confessions that followed. Charlie asks whether the West can recover from what it has chosen to support, and whether Zionism and Banderism get dispersed into our own societies when these wars fail. Then a final look at Kiev, where the health ministry is warning of blackouts that break water treatment and residents are being told to dig pit toilets. Is this finally the collapse?Timestamps:00:00 Intro, tomorrow’s members-only video on The Righteous Mind00:40 Iran: Vance, Bessent or Hegseth? Trump’s three paths01:54 Trump dazed after the wipeout, the most unpopular war in US history06:22 Eisenkot has the votes, but Arab parties get nothing08:30 Why the IDF may wait for an Eisenkot government11:10 The Democrats will line up behind Eisenkot13:31 Vance names Israel, and the MOU deja vu17:39 Can Vance be trusted? Thiel, the donor class and the yes-man job25:54 Peter’s odds: a strike within two months27:17 Democrats take the blue wave as a mandate for Ukraine31:11 A third party? Massie, Kent, McGregor, Davis34:49 Ukraine’s press gangs, the torture pits, the colostomy bag39:30 The Economist still calls it a democracy45:45 Will Zionism and Banderism poison the West?1:04:14 Kiev’s blackout, pit toilets and the Black Sea blockadeGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

The blue wave was bigger than forecast, and Charlie and Peter think it changes almost nothing. Seventy percent of voters said the Iran war shaped their vote, yet Peter puts the odds at better than even that Trump strikes Iran this month, before the new Congress is seated. Netanyahu knows the window closes in January, and as Charlie puts it, lame ducks start wars, they don’t end them. Add Section 219 of the NDAA, which would fuse the US and Israeli militaries beyond congressional oversight, and the purse strings may already be out of reach.Then the conversation turns to the scenario nobody wants to say out loud. Senator Murphy’s “insane plan,” Tucker Carlson’s hundred million view post, and John Kiriakou’s CIA sources all point the same direction: a B61-11 penetrating nuclear weapon dropped on Pickaxe Mountain. Charlie argues Trump is trapped by the American fantasy of the decisive blow and the single data point of 1945. Peter walks through what the strike would require, why the B-2 is vulnerable, and why Ted Postol says Iran could build a Hiroshima class bomb in about a week once it decides to.Finally, Ukraine. A torture pit in a Kiev suburb run by an Azov unit, a 14 year old boy beaten with a shovel, and a kill list that now includes the boy, his parents and the woman who got the prisoners out. Budanov admits there are many more. Reuters calls it a psyop. The episode ends on whether the Democrats’ Russia hawkishness and Iran’s promise of “no geographical limitations” could merge two wars into one.00:00 The blue wave: bigger than forecast, and Trump says he wasn’t on the ballot04:18 Will Democrats actually defund the Iran war?08:33 Merging the US and Israeli militaries10:51 Democrats will be worse on Russia, and nobody dissents16:56 Netanyahu’s window: lame ducks start wars, they don’t end them19:01 Is a strike imminent? Qeshm Island and the quiet strikes21:11 The nuclear option: Murphy, Tucker Carlson and Kiriakou22:55 The B61-11, the B-2 and the moon problem25:10 The World War Two trap: one data point for ending wars29:45 Why decisive blows fail against civilizational states33:55 The day after: Gulf infrastructure, Dimona, data cables, global depression39:05 Iran’s breakout: 60 to 90 percent, and a week to a Hiroshima bomb49:46 Kiev’s torture pits: the 14 year old boy and the kill list1:02:38 Ukraine can’t win and everyone knows it1:09:27 The path to World War Three: no geographical limitationsGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

The US Army at a North Carolina base has been practicing how to dig mass graves for their own dead, the first exercise of its kind in decades, and it comes as Trump stands at zero hour on a renewed strike against Iran. Peter walks through the Wall Street Journal’s investigation into the Gulf bases that were rendered uninhabitable during the 40-day war, the Pentagon strategy chief fired for saying the plan does not work, and why he thinks a man who cannot admit error is about to gamble on a ground operation that could put the world economy into depression. Charlie asks the question that keeps coming back: everyone knows how this ends, so why is it happening?From there the conversation turns to the propaganda system that makes it possible. Peter argues that Fox and the New York Times are on the same page about Western hegemony, that the political class really does believe it is fighting a Manichaean war against China, Russia and Iran, and that the 20 percent who still trust the media are the people who run everything. Europe is where that consensus is cracking: three weeks of riots in France, unrest in Germany and Italy, and in Poland, what Peter calls an attempted judicial coup by Donald Tusk against a president who refuses to hand the courts to Brussels.The last third goes to Ukraine. Peter explains what really happened in Oleshky, where Russian and Ukrainian ombudsmen cooperated on a civilian evacuation and Ukrainian nationalists screamed that it was a trap, and why most of the town had already left for Russia. Then the numbers that should end the argument: 36 percent of the dead in Gaza are children, 0.2 percent in Ukraine, and yet the TCC videos of fathers dragged from screaming children tell their own story about a war Ukraine cannot win.Timestamps:00:00 Calm before the storm: Trump at zero hour on Iran01:20 Pentagon strategy chief fired for saying the plan won’t work02:14 Marines rehearse digging mass graves for their own dead05:08 The Gulf bases were rendered uninhabitable: NYT, Reuters, WSJ07:22 Iran’s warning: a harder response with no geographical limits09:28 The mad emperor: why Trump cannot swallow defeat15:37 Israel’s grip on US policy and the gaslighting that enforces it17:48 Fox is crude, the Times is sophisticated, both defend hegemony22:42 The Kool-Aid: inside the political class’s Manichaean worldview28:30 France, Germany, Italy: Europe’s discontent in the streets30:00 Poland’s judicial coup: Tusk vs Nawrocki over who rules the courts39:03 Is the EU a failed project?40:36 Oleshky: who really shelled the civilians, and why the ceasefire worked52:30 Gaza vs Ukraine: 36 percent children vs 0.2 percent54:43 The conveyor belt of meat: forced mobilization and a war that can’t be won1:01:00 Is a strike the only way this ends? Israel wants a months-long campaignGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

The debate over Iran is no longer if or when. The Wall Street Journal says a short, intense campaign is coming right after the midterms, and Senator Murphy is calling the plan insane. Charlie and Peter walk through what that plan reportedly entails: hitting civilian and energy infrastructure that Trump held Israel back from during the first forty days, and possibly a ground operation to seize Qeshm or Kharg Island. Peter lays out why the first forty days hardened Iranian resolve instead of breaking it, why John Mearsheimer still thinks Trump backs down, and why the Gulf states, MBS in particular, may be too frightened to say no. Charlie argues the real planner is Netanyahu, with Trump and Hegseth deferring to a man who always has an answer for how to beat Iran.From there the conversation turns to what Iran will do in response. Children across the Iranian coast are already attending school online, state TV is running nuclear-attack preparedness PSAs, and Tehran has made clear it will not play nice again. Charlie’s case: the US cannot bomb a country the size of Western Europe into submission with boutique standoff munitions, Iran has been stockpiling, and the retaliation will reach data cables, Gulf energy, ships and possibly Dimona. Peter calls it the IDFization of the American military. They debate whether Iran should strike first while the war is still technically on, whether a war helps Trump survive a blue wave, and whether Americans should be stocking up.The second half covers Lula’s surprise win over Flavio Bolsonaro and what it means for BRICS and the Donroe Doctrine, the Student List’s defeat of Vucic in Serbia and where that hybrid coalition is headed on Russia, the first Finnish and Norwegian phone call to the Kremlin in years, and why Ukraine is not allowed to win a war whose success would wreck Western economies.00:00 Intro and the Ruins Report00:52 The insane plan: a short, intense campaign after the midterms05:00 Why forty days hardened Iran, and Mearsheimer’s dissent10:51 Will the Gulf states say no? MBS between bunkers16:32 Netanyahu is running this war, not Trump19:30 Seizing Qeshm and Kharg: ten thousand troops on a hostile island22:33 Iranian kids in online school and the nuclear PSA26:45 The IDFization of the American military28:48 Should Iran strike first? The war never ended31:27 Iran can absorb it, and there is no third option35:14 Blue wave, impeachment, and the rally-around-the-flag gamble42:21 Charlie’s Costco PSA and the Shanghai lockdown46:11 Brazil: Lula beats Bolsonaro, a bump for the Donroe Doctrine55:12 Serbia: Vucic falls to the Student List58:53 Finland and Norway call Putin, and why Ukraine can’t winGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

Pete Hegseth’s Fortress America plan promises that every US military base can run for 90 days with the civilian grid down. It says nothing about the cities going dark around them. Charlie and Peter ask the obvious question: who is this fortress for? Peter weighs money grab against real war planning, and both land on a military that has drifted from protecting Americans toward serving globalism and Zionism, with the brass preparing to ride out a catastrophe the public will be left to absorb.From there, a federal judge bragging about ferrying his colleagues to Israel, a Likud MK telling the world that being hated is “your problem,” and a crowd of twenty-year-olds who clearly disagree. Israel’s election has produced a deadlock, Netanyahu stays in office possibly until April, and Peter argues the post-election window is more dangerous than the pre-election one because Trump’s brake on a joint Iran strike lifts after the midterms. The 18 Arab seats that could end Netanyahu sit untouched because nobody will be seen working with them.Finally, Ukraine. Russia punched a hole in Kiev’s main Dnieper bridge, and Charlie wants to know why it took three years. Peter’s answer: Putin bet that restraint would buy a deal, the West read it as weakness every time, and Iran made the same mistake until February 28. Can a West carrying World War Two levels of debt and no industrial base actually fight the war it keeps threatening? And when the Dnieper becomes the line, what happens to the rump state on the other bank?0:00 Fortress America: Hegseth’s plan and what it really says4:20 A fortress that keeps Americans outside7:11 Has the military stopped belonging to America?13:11 Could the blackout come from inside?14:54 Every Western leader is underwater17:04 Judge Roy Altman and the Christian Zionist core25:01 Israel’s election deadlock: Netanyahu vs Eisenkot26:34 Why the post-election window is more dangerous for Iran29:47 The war powers Congress refuses to use35:37 Eighteen Arab seats nobody will touch40:47 Feiglin: “It’s your problem”46:23 James Fishback and the generation turning on Israel49:40 Russia hits Kiev’s bridges: why now?56:41 Can a bankrupt West fight a world war?1:02:45 Ukraine’s endgame and the Dnieper lineGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

Two days before Israel votes, Netanyahu asked the IDF to launch a strike on Iran. Chief of Staff Zamir refused. Hours later Trump published an endorsement letter that Axios reports Netanyahu helped write. Charlie and Peter Erickson read the letter line by line and ask what it tells us about two leaders who both need this war to continue to survive politically.Peter lays out why the most dangerous window is still ahead: the gap between the US midterms and January 3, overlapping with the two or three months Israel will spend forming a new coalition while Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister. We look at why Trump never makes the case for the war, what happens if Iran actually hits Dimona, the gambler’s dilemma that pushes a losing president to double down, and the carriers and strike package moving into theater. Then the part of the Hormuz story everyone misses: crude is flowing, but fertilizer, LNG and refined products are not, and a spring planting shock may already be baked in.In the second half, a potentially historic meeting in Tehran, with Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials sitting down with Iran’s National Security Council as the Gulf weighs decoupling from Washington. Then Peter breaks the Ukraine war into its phases from 2014 to today and explains why the Russian air war that began this summer, not the ground advance, is what has European leaders panicking. We close on the press gangs seizing a hearse driver mid-funeral, and the Western media’s role in hiding it.00:00 Netanyahu asks the IDF to hit Iran before the election, Zamir says no00:54 Trump’s endorsement letter, reportedly co-written with Netanyahu06:36 The danger window: US midterms to January 3, and Israel’s coalition talks09:39 Why Trump never makes the case for the war16:42 Iran names Dimona as a target: the hypocrisy laid bare23:35 Emergency powers, unity governments and unrest at home27:27 The gambler’s dilemma: why Trump doubles down29:44 The Fox News voices Trump actually listens to31:39 Carriers in theater and the strike package being prepared33:44 Hormuz beyond crude: fertilizer, LNG and the mine option38:59 Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials in Tehran40:29 Gulf wealth, asset seizure and the fate of the dollar46:52 The Ukraine war phase by phase, 2014 to now1:07:10 Is this the last phase?1:08:03 Ukrainians want a deal, and the press gangs seize a hearse driverGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

Does Trump hit Iran before the midterms or after? Peter Erickson says after: the war is unpopular, a strike on energy infrastructure invites immediate retaliation on the Gulf, and the markets would panic. But Netanyahu is tied with Eisenkot in the polls, and a war has never hurt him before. Charlie pushes on whether the Israeli election changes anything at all, and Peter argues Trump’s motive is now personal vindictiveness toward Tehran, which makes Mearsheimer’s “the US can’t do it” argument a comfort that only has to fail once. Trump wakes up at the edge of the cliff every morning. He never walks away from it.Then the damage report. Peter walks through what Iran actually did in the first forty days: bases rendered uninhabitable, servicemen hiding in parking garages and vans in the desert, a sixth of Qatar’s LNG capacity gone. The next rungs are undersea cables, desalination plants, and the rest of Qatar’s gas. The Gulf monarchs are now begging Washington not to do it, and Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE may already have closed their airspace. Which leads to Charlie’s big question: the US is no longer the hegemon, so why does the alliance system still hold, and who breaks first? Peter’s answer is the Gulf, because they are the only vassals who are not ideological. Europe, he says, is a suicide cult, and its only way out is back to the nation state.Finally Ukraine. Reports that Russian aircraft are dropping FABs on the bridges of Kiev remain unconfirmed, but the South Bridge carries most of the city’s traffic and the metro, and Peter sees a plan forming: make the Dnieper the border from Zaporizhzhia to the Russian frontier. Charlie asks whether we are headed for an East Kiev and a West Kiev, a Berlin Wall in reverse, where the side backed by the US is the one beating its own citizens to keep them in. Belgium has killed the frozen assets plan, the Ukrainian military is cutting pay, and the bag of tricks is nearly empty in both theaters.0:00 Strike before or after the midterms? Netanyahu tied with Eisenkot5:18 Would an Eisenkot win matter? Trump’s personal grudge against Iran9:29 Mearsheimer says the US can’t do it. Trump wakes up at the cliff every morning12:46 Will the Pentagon say no? Non-concurrence is not mutiny13:18 What Iran did in the first forty days, and the next rungs on the ladder19:30 The US is not the hegemon anymore, so why does the alliance hold?22:23 Inertia, Europe’s suicide cult, and why the Gulf breaks first26:52 Have Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE already said no?30:42 South Korea stands up, Taiwan doesn’t, and the retreat to the second island chain34:50 A new Yalta with Xi and Putin? Theater, not strategy36:16 Will Europe find its sovereignty or become everyone’s vassal?45:58 Is Russia bombing the bridges in Kiev?49:43 Splitting Ukraine along the Dnieper52:32 East Kiev, West Kiev, and a Berlin Wall in reverse57:59 Does the war end or escalate? Belgium kills the frozen assets planGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

A Financial Times report says Israel told Washington it is ready to hit Iran’s power plants, leadership and civilian infrastructure, and that Trump asked them to wait until after the midterms. Then Netanyahu, fresh off Trump’s endorsement in the Israeli election, called him on speakerphone from an Air Force hangar to say thank you. Charlie watched that clip and concluded the strike is locked in and that US Middle East policy is run from Jerusalem. Peter agrees it is better than even odds, but says Trump has chickened out at the edge before.From there the conversation covers whether the US can actually knock out Iran’s grid (Charlie points to how long Russia has needed to break a much smaller Ukraine), why China’s backing means Iran cannot lose, the leaked Mecca Defense Pact and why Turkey and Pakistan will give Saudi Arabia a paper shield and nothing more, and how Pakistan is quietly gaming Operation Economic Outcast by closing border crossings by day and reopening them at night.Then Europe. A reported US-EU-Ukraine offer puts “no NATO” on the table for the first time, which Peter calls the farthest the Europeans have ever moved and also probably too late. Ukraine may not survive the winter, Europe cannot pay without seizing frozen Russian assets, and Le Pen has pledged to cut aid within six months. The episode ends on a disagreement: Charlie thinks Israel is the common thread behind the self-destruction of the West, Peter thinks Zionist influence is real but the West’s collapse is mostly its own doing.00:01 Impending doom: a strike on Iran is coming and nobody is acting like it01:16 FT report: Israel ready to hit Iran’s power plants, Trump says wait for the midterms02:46 Trump’s endorsement, the Israeli election, and the speakerphone call06:15 Netanyahu destroyed Trump’s presidency. Why does Trump still love him?09:48 The fallout: Gulf states, global recession, and the bomb12:28 Zelensky vs Netanyahu: the deep state wins either way14:50 Could a Putin-Xi-Trump summit in China stop it?17:58 Can the US really knock out Iran’s grid? The Ukraine parallel20:24 China won’t let Iran fall22:35 Saudi Arabia’s paper shield: the leaked Mecca Defense Pact24:49 Pakistan’s border game and why Operation Economic Outcast is failing30:03 Netanyahu vs Eisenkot: Mr. Dahiya Doctrine35:44 Europe’s new peace offer: freeze the lines or trade Donbass for NATO40:55 Ukraine may not survive the winter. Can Europe?50:11 Is the destruction of the West a plan? Charlie and Peter disagreeGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins

Trump cut a diesel deal with Russia to ease a fuel crunch that has France in the streets and Europe heading into winter on thin gas reserves. Europe’s response: howls of rage. Peter Erickson reads that as proof the political class would rather freeze than loosen a single sanction, and Charlie argues the only way out now is either a revolution or a collapse of the dollar before the war party gets what it wants.In the Middle East, a leaked three day strike plan called for the MOAB on Pickaxe Mountain, and Iranian state media confirmed that Washington asked Tehran not to retaliate. Iran said no. Peter walks through why the MOAB can only be dropped from a slow MC-130, which means it cannot be used without Iran’s permission, and why the fallback being floated, strikes on energy infrastructure, is more dangerous than the bomb itself. Meanwhile Hormuz is mined, ships are sinking, UKMTO admits it is undercounting hits, and Egypt is lining up beside Pakistan and Turkey to guard MBS.Charlie puts the odds of a full US and Israeli strike at 95 percent within weeks, either before the Israeli election or right after the midterms. Peter refuses to put a number on it but calls it a very real risk. Plus a bonus question on the St. Petersburg drone attack that flew through Polish and Baltic airspace.00:00 Trump dumps Ukraine on Europe to focus on the Middle East00:46 The diesel deal and Europe’s howls of rage05:41 Europe enters winter with half its gas gone06:43 Starlink, intelligence sharing, and why rapprochement is impossible11:29 Macron at 15 percent: is France the start of a revolution?17:24 What could Ukraine do to Europe if abandoned?21:08 Ukraine and Israel: two regimes with impunity28:02 Militarism without a military: the nuclear temptation29:49 Iran said no to the MOAB33:06 Trump endorses Netanyahu to finish the job35:38 Egypt joins Pakistan and Turkey guarding MBS40:25 Mines in Hormuz and ships going down46:50 Why are the markets so calm?50:53 Charlie says 95 percent. Peter won’t bet.55:29 St. Petersburg drones flew through NATO airspaceGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins