Markets Weekly podcast (19 February 2024): US inflation and UK recession

This week’s podcast discusses the key themes of our recently released AI Outlook 2026: Agents of Productivity report, which examines the defining trends, opportunities and risks for AI in the year ahead. Lukas Gehrig, Head of Quant Macro and Thematic Strategy, and Rob Smith, AI and Data Science Strategist, join host Julien Lafargue to answer some of the key questions on investors’ minds. Can the hunger for compute and energy demand be sated? When will AI deliver the much-promised broad productivity gains? And what part will regulation play in the AI rollout?

Despite the strong performance in US equity markets this year and speculation of an AI bubble, there are still reasons for investors to be optimistic. In this special podcast, guests Dr Nouriel Roubini, Senior Economic Strategist, and Jason Cuttler, Senior Markets and Derivatives Strategist, both at Hudson Bay Capital join host Julien Lafargue to discuss how AI-driven growth should continue to outweigh less market-friendly policies such as tariffs, why they believe that the S&P 500 isn’t overvalued and why Japan and metals can offer investors diversification benefits.

As we unveil our Outlook 2026 report amidst a year marked by powerful AI-driven momentum, stretched equity valuations and growing concentration risks, the key question now is how investors should position as we move toward 2026. In this week’s podcast, Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, and Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, join host Julien Lafargue to explore the forces behind recent market performance, the vulnerabilities emerging beneath the surface, and where we believe the most compelling opportunities and risks lie across regions, sectors and investment styles.

Following the release of our Private Markets Annual Report 2025, we shine a light on the growing importance of private markets for high-net-worth investors. In this week’s podcast, Shenal Kakad, Global Head of Private Markets, shares some of the report’s key findings around why investors are increasingly looking at private markets, the key drivers behind the growth in allocations to private markets and the barriers they face when investing.

Q3 results in the US have been particularly strong, with earnings and margins surprising to the upside. Europe has been more mixed, though underlying trends look more resilient, after accounting for sector and FX effects. At the same time, dispersion is rising. In this week’s podcast, Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, explores how strong numbers in the US are not always rewarded, while even modest disappointments face sharper reactions ‒ a clear sign that investors are becoming more discriminating.

Blockchain is a long-term investment theme that is maturing after an initial stage of hype, offering new avenues for value creation in portfolios. In this week’s podcast, Ivelin Stankov, Investment Strategist, joins host Julien Lafargue to explain what blockchain companies do, the influence of cryptocurrencies on blockchain companies, and what makes the blockchain theme a unique opportunity for investors.

In this week’s podcast, Stephen Moroukian, our real estate financing specialist, joins host Julien Lafargue to discuss central London’s prime real-estate market, Budget speculation, and the ongoing geopolitical backdrop. Stephen also provides an update on the UK interest rate outlook and how this is impacting the demand for mortgages.

After a period where just a handful of mega-cap AI stocks have driven market returns, Quality stocks (companies which often exhibit consistent earnings growth, high profitability, and stable balance sheets) have lagged significantly. In this week’s podcast, Dorothée Deck, Head of Cross Asset Strategy, explores why Quality may be poised for a rebound, and shares the key indicators to watch as market leadership starts to broaden.

Following Sanae Takaichi’s surprise election win as leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the yen weakened sharply on expectations of looser monetary policy. In this week’s podcast, Bhaskar Gupta joins host Julien Lafargue to consider the prospects for the yen, US dollar, euro, sterling, and Swiss franc.

As the US administration shakes up global trading norms, the US dollar suffered its worst first half of the year in more than 50 years. In this week’s podcast, Nikola Vasiljevic, Head of Global Asset Allocation, joins host Julien Lafargue to discuss US dollar depreciation and elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and how much these factors can affect the investment outlook.