A quieter wheat market doesn’t mean the opportunities—or risks—have disappeared.
Mike O’Dea of StoneX joins host Aaron Harries and Kansas Wheat CEO Justin Gilpin to examine where wheat prices could go next. They discuss the correction in Kansas City futures, Black Sea shipping disruptions, global wheat demand, milling-quality supplies and why basis may strengthen before futures make their next major move. O’Dea also explains what improved Southern Plains moisture, potential acreage increases and a developing El Niño could mean for wheat producers.
Key takeaways:
- Black Sea shipping remains a major source of uncertainty, even as Russian and Ukrainian wheat continues reaching world markets.
- Hard wheat basis could strengthen as farmer selling slows and mill demand increases.
- Improved moisture could encourage more wheat planting—but strong corn economics may limit harvested wheat acres.
- Global demand and production in Europe, South America, China and India could become increasingly important moving toward spring.
Forward contracts and options can help producers protect opportunities, but Southern Plains production risk remains an important consideration.
Detailed Timestamped Rundown
00:00 – El Niño and the long-range weather outlook
Mike O’Dea opens with an optimistic comparison to the late 1990s, when U.S. wheat yields were strong, while noting today’s wheat acreage is considerably smaller.
00:23 – Wheat market outlook
Aaron Harries introduces O’Dea and asks where the wheat market stands following continued volatility.
01:12 – Futures correction and Black Sea exports
O’Dea explains why the pullback in Kansas City futures did not surprise him. Russian and Ukrainian exports remain central to the global wheat outlook.
02:24 – Global demand and European wheat
The conversation shifts to weak demand, European cash values and the possibility that demand strengthens during the winter.
04:00 – Basis, spreads and futures
O’Dea argues that basis and spreads may lead the next move in hard wheat before flat futures prices respond.
05:00 – Rain and wheat acreage
Major precipitation across Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado improves the production outlook. O’Dea estimates hard wheat acres could rise about 5%, while soft wheat acreage could increase more.
06:25 – Hard wheat balance sheets
Reduced exports and increased spring wheat use make the old-crop hard wheat balance sheet look relatively loose.
07:47 – “Black Sea fatigue”
O’Dea describes how markets have become less responsive to repeated Black Sea headlines and discusses speculative fund positions.
09:10 – Could KC wheat see fireworks?
Market spreads still leave room for volatility, but O’Dea stresses that futures are often the last piece to move.
09:27 – Farmers largely stop selling
O’Dea estimates a large share of the Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Colorado crop has already been bought, leaving fewer natural sellers on another rally.
10:26 – Milling-quality wheat supplies
The group examines hard red winter wheat, spring wheat and Canadian quality. Kansas produced good-quality wheat, although total bushels were limited.
12:33 – Spring basis opportunities
O’Dea explains why tightening farmer ownership and stronger mill demand could support hard wheat basis during the spring.
13:24 – Export opportunities
Potential non-Black Sea demand could improve the U.S. export picture, while French wheat is already moving into markets such as Yemen.
14:07 – Middle East and China demand
Middle Eastern buying and China’s potential need for blending wheat become important wild cards.
16:03 – South America and El Niño
Poorer Brazilian quality, Argentina’s crop and the developing El Niño pattern could alter global trade and production.
17:50 – Why 1997–99 matters
O’Dea points to strong historical U.S. yields during those years as an encouraging weather comparison.
18:03 – Kansas planting and moisture
Gilpin discusses slow planting, strong seed demand and replenished soil moisture following recent rains.
19:23 – Producers captured the rally
O’Dea says farmers did a good job taking advantage of higher July wheat pricing opportunities.
19:36 – Input costs and wheat versus corn
Higher diesel and other costs reinforce the need to evaluate total return per acre. Better moisture could also encourage some producers to switch intended wheat acres to corn.
20:07 – Forward pricing in the Southern Plains
The discussion turns to production risk and why dryland Southern Plains growers are often hesitant to forward contract too much production.
20:55 – Options and risk management
O’Dea discusses puts, calls and other strategies that can offer price protection without committing too much uncertain production.
21:38 – Regional differences in farmer selling
Soft wheat, spring wheat and soft white wheat growers behave differently because of storage, cropping systems and local basis.
22:20 – Watch commercial buying
O’Dea identifies commercial positions as an important indicator. A shift toward commercial buying can provide an early clue that the market is changing.
23:00 – Closing thoughts
Harries and Gilpin thank O’Dea and close the episode.
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