540: Outlook and Predictions for 2026

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful.

It's been another interesting year in the world of personal finance and macroeconomics. As we look ahead to 2026… well, who really knows what's coming? I'll be sharing my own take—and making a few predictions—in an upcoming episode. What's hard to ignore is just how unusual this moment in history is. We're coming off COVID. We went through a rapid rise in interest rates, and now a pullback. Tariffs are back in the conversation. There are a lot of moving parts, and as usual, the consensus hasn't exactly nailed it. Almost every expert was convinced tariffs would push inflation higher. I expected at least a temporary bump—some transient inflation while markets adjusted. Then the CPI report came out at 2.7%. That's a lot closer to the Fed's 2% target, and nearly half a percentage point lower than expectations. Clearly, something else is going on. At the same time, GDP came in at around 4.3% growth. That's real strength. Inflation is coming down, growth is strong, and while the labor market is still a little murky, there's no question there's underlying momentum in the system. Investors haven't quite felt it yet. It's been a sticky environment. But my sense is that we're getting closer to a shift—more liquidity, more money in the system, and markets that may start moving meaningfully again. Of course, we'll see how it all plays out. For this episode, my producer Phil pulled together some of the highlights from the show in 2025—a look back at the conversations and ideas that stood out in a year when the data kept surprising just about everyone. I hope you enjoy it. And again, happy holidays. Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year.

For years, gold was the asset nobody wanted to talk about. It sat there quietly while stocks and real estate continued to rip. Gold was for pessimists. For doomsayers and perma-bears. And then suddenly… gold didn't just wake up. It launched. As of mid-December 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,300–$4,400 an ounce, depending on the market, marking a gain of roughly 60% over the past year and pushing decisively into record territory. The obvious question is: why now? The short answer is that gold isn't reacting to one thing. It's responding to a stacking of pressures that have been quietly building for years and are now impossible to ignore. Start with central banks. For the better part of the last decade, central banks were net sellers or indifferent holders of gold. That changed dramatically after 2022. According to the World Gold Council, central banks have been buying gold at more than double the pace of the pre-COVID years, and 2025 continues that trend, with hundreds of tonnes added to reserves year-to-date. These aren't hedge funds chasing momentum. These are monetary authorities making deliberate, strategic decisions about what they trust to hold value. Why would central banks suddenly want more gold? Because geopolitics has re-entered the chat. We now live in a world where reserves can be frozen, payment systems can be weaponized, and "risk-free" assets depend heavily on political alignment. The World Bank has been explicit that rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty are key drivers of gold's surge this year. When trust in the global order erodes, gold benefits. At the same time, the U.S. dollar devaluation thesis is no longer fringe thinking. It is reality. Gold is priced in dollars, and when real yields fall and the dollar weakens, gold historically performs well. That dynamic is playing out again. Reuters has repeatedly pointed to a softer dollar and declining Treasury yields as near-term tailwinds for gold's rally . Bank of America's research echoes this relationship, emphasizing gold's inverse correlation to the dollar and the growing desire among nations to diversify away from dollar-centric reserves . In other words, gold isn't just going up because people are scared. It's going up because confidence in fiat discipline is eroding, slowly but persistently. So…Is gold still a buy or did we miss it? The truth is, both answers can be correct. Yes, gold is expensive relative to where it was a year ago. You don't go up 60% without pulling future returns forward. But what makes this cycle different is that many of the buyers driving demand are price-insensitive. Central banks don't care if gold is up 20% or down 10% in a quarter. They care about long-term reserve integrity. That's why major institutions aren't dismissing the move as a blow-off. Goldman Sachs has cited sustained central-bank demand and the potential for further ETF inflows as supportive of higher prices. J.P. Morgan continues to frame gold as a beneficiary of geopolitical instability and monetary uncertainty, and Bank of America is projecting prices as high as $5,000 an ounce into 2026. Of course, nothing goes up in a straight line. A shift toward tighter monetary policy or a sudden easing of global tensions could cool enthusiasm. Understand though, that gold's breakout isn't just about gold. There is a larger message that should be taken away from all of this. Hard money has come back into favor. Gold is the original hard asset. It's scarce, politically neutral, and has thousands of years of monetary credibility. But it's also heavy, difficult to move, and awkward in a digital world. Bitcoin exists on the same philosophical axis. Both gold and Bitcoin are reactions to the same problem: expanding debt, monetary dilution, and declining confidence in centralized control. Gold is the conservative expression of that view. Bitcoin is the aggressive one. Today, Bitcoin trades around $86,000, still volatile, still controversial, still misunderstood. But if gold's surge is signaling a regime shift toward hard assets, then Bitcoin may simply be earlier in that adoption curve. In other words, gold may be leading the parade. And if history is any guide, when institutions start moving into the oldest form of sound money, they eventually begin exploring the newest. That's the signal worth paying attention to. So this week, I interview Dana Samuelson, an old friend of the show and an expert in everything gold and hard money. Learn more about Dana Samuelson: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dana-samuelson-64793056/

You know, the longer I've been an investor, the more I realize this simple truth: the biggest threat to your wealth isn't the market… it's your own brain. We're all wired the same way—with instincts that were fantastic for avoiding saber-toothed tigers but are absolutely terrible for making good financial decisions. Take something simple like a marathon. If I asked you to predict next year's top finishers, you'd look at last year's results. That works. Human performance doesn't flip upside down in twelve months. The best runners tend to stay the best runners. There aren't that many variables to consider. When we try to apply that same logic to investing, it often blows up in our faces. There are way too many variables to consider when it comes to market behavior to make simple assumptions. Entire sectors rotate from darling to disaster in a heartbeat. Yet our brains keep telling us, "Hey, this worked last year, surely it'll work again." In my view, nowhere is that psychological mismatch more obvious than in real estate right now. A few years ago, when real estate was on fire—cheap debt, rising rents, deals getting snapped up before lunch—everybody wanted in. Fast-forward to today. We've had a rate shock. Values have reset. Properties are selling at steep discounts. And Construction starts have fallen off a cliff. Real estate got slaughtered. But look around now. The market has reset. Assets are selling 30 percent below where they did just after Covid. Jobs and population growth in places like the Carolinas, Texas, and Arizona look fantastic, and interest rates are falling quickly. Every macro indicator you can name is pointing to a major buying opportunity—one of the best in the last 15 years. So naturally… few people are paying attention. Markets that are bottomed out are not sexy. If it's not frothy, it's not newsworthy. This is human nature in a nutshell. When assets are expensive and risk is quietly rising, people feel brave. When assets are attractively priced, and future returns look great, people get scared. It's recency bias: assuming whatever just happened will keep happening. It's loss aversion: we fear losing a buck more than we enjoy making one. It's herd behavior: we'd rather be wrong with the crowd than right by ourselves. And of course, it's confirmation bias—where people seek out whatever headlines validate the emotions they're already feeling. It's not logical. It's not strategic. But it is human. And that's why this week's guest on Wealth Formula Podcast is of value to listen to. He's one of the leading experts in the world on investor psychology—someone who can explain, with real data, why even intelligent investors consistently jump into markets late, bail out early, misread risk, and miss the best opportunities… especially the ones sitting right in front of them. If you've ever wondered why you sometimes make brilliant decisions and other times do the financial equivalent of touching a hot stove twice, this conversation is going to hit home. Learn more about Prof. Terrance Odean: https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/terrance-odean/

Homeownership has been baked into the American Dream for nearly a century. Politicians, parents, and banks all tell you the same thing: “Buy a house as soon as you can. It’s your biggest asset.” But as a real estate guy who actually understands how wealth is created… I’m not convinced it makes sense for everyone—especially early in your career. Let me explain. Say you finally start making some real money—maybe you’re a doctor fresh out of residency. The cultural script kicks in immediately: Buy a house. Build equity. Feel responsible. But here’s the part most people forget: your primary home is not an asset. As Robert Kiyosaki puts it, if something takes money out of your pocket, it’s not an asset—it’s a liability. According to Bankrate and the Census Bureau, U.S. homeowners spend around $17,000 per year just to maintain and operate their homes—and that’s before you make a single mortgage payment.  That’s property taxes, insurance, utilities, landscaping, repair bills, HOA fees… the list goes on. If your house is worth $1.5M, even the bare-minimum 1% annual maintenance rule hits you with $15,000 a year just to keep the place from deteriorating. Add insurance, taxes, utilities, and everything else, and you’re looking at $30,000–$40,000 per year in unavoidable, non-negotiable carrying costs. And that still doesn’t cover the roof that fails, the appliances that die, or the curveballs Mother Nature throws at you. None of that feels like an “asset” to me. Now, to be fair, people don’t usually buy homes as investments. They buy them for stability, a place to raise kids, a sense of being “settled.” It’s emotional. It’s psychological. And it’s real. But if you’re young—and especially if you haven’t hit your first million—it’s worth asking yourself a tough question: Is buying a home right now the best financial move… or just the most familiar one? Because historically, U.S. home prices appreciate around 4.3% a year (Case-Shiller). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 averages closer to 10%. And if you’re in real estate investing? A solid multifamily value-add deal often targets 16–20% IRR—plus tax advantages your primary home will never give you. So if you’re just getting started, it might make sense to delay that home purchase. Invest first. Build your passive income. Let your assets—not your salary—pay for your lifestyle.  Then when you do buy a home, you’ll be doing it from a position of strength, not strain. The irony is this: waiting often gets you to the dream home faster because your capital compounds instead of being trapped in drywall, windows, and a backyard you barely have time to enjoy. This Week on Wealth Formula Podcast, I interview expert Dr. Ken Johnson, who digs even deeper into this question—and lays out why homeownership isn’t the golden ticket people think it is, especially for high earners early in their wealth-building years. Linked mentioned: Beracha and Johnson Housing Ranking Index: https://www.ares.org/page/beracha-johnson-housing-ranking-index Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index: https://www.ares.org/page/waller-weeks-johnson-rental-index Price-to-Rent Ratio Report: https://therealestateinitiative.com/price-to-rent-ratios/ Top 100 Housing Markets – Inflation Adjusted: https://therealestateinitiative.com/housing-top-100/ Learn more about Dr. Ken Johnson: https://olemiss.edu/profiles/khjohns3

Homeownership has been baked into the American Dream for nearly a century. Politicians, parents, and banks all tell you the same thing: "Buy a house as soon as you can. It's your biggest asset." But as a real estate guy who actually understands how wealth is created… I'm not convinced it makes sense for everyone—especially early in your career. Let me explain. Say you finally start making some real money—maybe you're a doctor fresh out of residency. The cultural script kicks in immediately: Buy a house. Build equity. Feel responsible. But here's the part most people forget: your primary home is not an asset. As Robert Kiyosaki puts it, if something takes money out of your pocket, it's not an asset—it's a liability. According to Bankrate and the Census Bureau, U.S. homeowners spend around $17,000 per year just to maintain and operate their homes—and that's before you make a single mortgage payment. That's property taxes, insurance, utilities, landscaping, repair bills, HOA fees… the list goes on. If your house is worth $1.5M, even the bare-minimum 1% annual maintenance rule hits you with $15,000 a year just to keep the place from deteriorating. Add insurance, taxes, utilities, and everything else, and you're looking at $30,000–$40,000 per year in unavoidable, non-negotiable carrying costs. And that still doesn't cover the roof that fails, the appliances that die, or the curveballs Mother Nature throws at you. None of that feels like an "asset" to me. Now, to be fair, people don't usually buy homes as investments. They buy them for stability, a place to raise kids, a sense of being "settled." It's emotional. It's psychological. And it's real. But if you're young—and especially if you haven't hit your first million—it's worth asking yourself a tough question: Is buying a home right now the best financial move… or just the most familiar one? Because historically, U.S. home prices appreciate around 4.3% a year (Case-Shiller). Meanwhile, the S&P 500 averages closer to 10%. And if you're in real estate investing? A solid multifamily value-add deal often targets 16–20% IRR—plus tax advantages your primary home will never give you. So if you're just getting started, it might make sense to delay that home purchase. Invest first. Build your passive income. Let your assets—not your salary—pay for your lifestyle. Then when you do buy a home, you'll be doing it from a position of strength, not strain. The irony is this: waiting often gets you to the dream home faster because your capital compounds instead of being trapped in drywall, windows, and a backyard you barely have time to enjoy. This Week on Wealth Formula Podcast, I interview expert Dr. Ken Johnson, who digs even deeper into this question—and lays out why homeownership isn't the golden ticket people think it is, especially for high earners early in their wealth-building years. Links mentioned: Beracha and Johnson Housing Ranking Index: https://www.ares.org/page/beracha-johnson-housing-ranking-index Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index: https://www.ares.org/page/waller-weeks-johnson-rental-index Price-to-Rent Ratio Report: https://therealestateinitiative.com/price-to-rent-ratios/ Top 100 Housing Markets - Inflation Adjusted: https://therealestateinitiative.com/housing-top-100/ Learn more about Dr. Ken Johnson: https://olemiss.edu/profiles/khjohns3

It’s that time of the year again—Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Everyone loves a deal. If you’ve been investing long enough, you know one important fact: there is always something on sale. The problem is the herd never sees it. They’re too busy chasing whatever feels safe because it’s setting new records. And right now? That’s the stock market. That’s gold. Everyone’s piling into the most expensive things they can find and patting themselves on the back for being “prudent.” But smart investors don’t chase what’s already expensive.They look for the thing sitting quietly on the clearance rack, the thing nobody wants yet. And today, that thing is real estate—particularly apartments. We’ve seen this movie before. Think back to the early 2000s. After the dot-com crash, everybody ran to gold and Treasuries. Meanwhile, the very companies that would define the next two decades—Amazon, Apple, Microsoft—were sitting there marked down 75%. You didn’t need to be a genius to buy them. You just needed the stomach. Then there was 2009–2011. Real estate was radioactive. The media made it sound like apartment buildings were going to fall into sinkholes. But if you bought during that window? Values didn’t take ten years to recover. They snapped back within three. And then they kept running for another decade. And remember 2020—oil going negative? That’s the kind of insanity that only happens once in a generation. People were literally joking that Exxon would pay you to take barrels off their hands. It was absurd… and it was the greatest energy buying opportunity in modern history. But most people sat on the sidelines in fear. Different cycles, different assets, same principle:If you want outsized returns, you have to be willing to buy what everyone else is mispricing. And right now, the only major asset class not making all-time highs is real estate. In fact, our Investor Club is still finding deals discounted 30–40 percent from just a few years ago. Apartments, specifically, are in this bizarre sweet spot where pricing is still beaten up from the rate shock, yet the fundamentals underneath are quietly strengthening. Sellers who bought with floating debt are fatigued.Buyers with dry powder are getting real discounts.Construction has collapsed—meaning supply will be razor-thin in 18–24 months. And the interest-rate environment is shifting in exactly the direction apartments benefit from. This is why rates matter.This is why liquidity matters.This is why cycles matter. When financing costs come down and supply is constrained, prices don’t grind higher—they launch. This Is Exactly What the Bottom Feels Like Bottoms never feel like bottoms. They feel confusing. Uneasy. Contradictory. And that is precisely why it’s the opportunity. Every big wealth-building moment looks like this in real time. Everyone’s distracted by what’s hot while the discount sits in plain sight. Make no mistake—if the Fed keeps cutting and liquidity continues loosening, apartments aren’t going to stay discounted. They’ll do what they did after 2009. They’ll do what oil did after 2020. They’ll do what tech did after the dot-com crash. They’ll reprice fast. And years from now, people will look back at this exact moment and say the thing they always say after missing the obvious: “It was right there. Why didn’t I buy more?” Well… it is right here. Apartments are on sale. No one has been beating the drum more on this than my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week.

It's that time of the year again—Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Everyone loves a deal. If you've been investing long enough, you know one important fact: there is always something on sale. The problem is the herd never sees it. They're too busy chasing whatever feels safe because it's setting new records. And right now? That's the stock market. That's gold. Everyone's piling into the most expensive things they can find and patting themselves on the back for being "prudent." But smart investors don't chase what's already expensive. They look for the thing sitting quietly on the clearance rack, the thing nobody wants yet. And today, that thing is real estate—particularly apartments. We've seen this movie before. Think back to the early 2000s. After the dot-com crash, everybody ran to gold and Treasuries. Meanwhile, the very companies that would define the next two decades—Amazon, Apple, Microsoft—were sitting there marked down 75%. You didn't need to be a genius to buy them. You just needed the stomach. Then there was 2009–2011. Real estate was radioactive. The media made it sound like apartment buildings were going to fall into sinkholes. But if you bought during that window? Values didn't take ten years to recover. They snapped back within three. And then they kept running for another decade. And remember 2020—oil going negative? That's the kind of insanity that only happens once in a generation. People were literally joking that Exxon would pay you to take barrels off their hands. It was absurd… and it was the greatest energy buying opportunity in modern history. But most people sat on the sidelines in fear. Different cycles, different assets, same principle: If you want outsized returns, you have to be willing to buy what everyone else is mispricing. And right now, the only major asset class not making all-time highs is real estate. In fact, our Investor Club is still finding deals discounted 30–40 percent from just a few years ago. Apartments, specifically, are in this bizarre sweet spot where pricing is still beaten up from the rate shock, yet the fundamentals underneath are quietly strengthening. Sellers who bought with floating debt are fatigued. Buyers with dry powder are getting real discounts. Construction has collapsed—meaning supply will be razor-thin in 18–24 months. And the interest-rate environment is shifting in exactly the direction apartments benefit from. This is why rates matter. This is why liquidity matters. This is why cycles matter. When financing costs come down and supply is constrained, prices don't grind higher—they launch. This Is Exactly What the Bottom Feels Like Bottoms never feel like bottoms. They feel confusing. Uneasy. Contradictory. And that is precisely why it's the opportunity. Every big wealth-building moment looks like this in real time. Everyone's distracted by what's hot while the discount sits in plain sight. Make no mistake—if the Fed keeps cutting and liquidity continues loosening, apartments aren't going to stay discounted. They'll do what they did after 2009. They'll do what oil did after 2020. They'll do what tech did after the dot-com crash. They'll reprice fast. And years from now, people will look back at this exact moment and say the thing they always say after missing the obvious: "It was right there. Why didn't I buy more?" Well… it is right here. Apartments are on sale. No one has been beating the drum more on this than my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week.

This week’s Wealth Formula Podcast is about the economics of sports—if you are a sports fan like me, you will love it. But before we get to that, I want to give you my two cents on one of the most important elements to financial success in anything: conviction. As I write this, Bitcoin sold off from a high of $126K to under $90K. Other cryptos have lost 50-90 percent of their value in the same time. It’s been called a blood bath. Some are even saying it’s over for Bitcoin. I might even believe them if I hadn’t seen the same story at least 5 times before over the past decade. True bitcoiners have tremendous belief in what bitcoin means to the world. Someone who bought $1,000 of Bitcoin in 2010 and simply refused to sell would now be sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars. That is the reward for true conviction. The irony of this bitcoin cycle is that many of those individuals with high conviction are finally cashing in on the fruit of their patience. Almost every day, another wallet that hasn’t been active since 2011 is selling off a billion dollars into the market into the hands of Wall Street and governments. That’s why prices are tumbling.  But don’t be fooled into thinking that these buyers are the dumb money holding the bag. The story does not end here. Nor is the Bitcoin story a one-off either. History repeats itself as the story of investments unfolds over time.  In December 1999, Amazon stock traded at $106. After the dot-com crash, it fell to $5.97. Every talking head had a eulogy written for the company. But if you were crazy enough to hold through the storm, your conviction paid off spectacularly: $10,000 invested in Amazon in 2001 is worth over $20 million today. Now, moving on to the topics of sports. One of my favorite examples of conviction is from 1920, when George Halas bought the Chicago Bears franchise for $100.  The Halas family could’ve “taken profits” countless times. They lived through multiple depressions, a world war, a dozen recessions, five or six league restructurings, labor disputes, player strikes, and decades of bad seasons. Anybody else would’ve bailed. But they didn’t, and today, the Chicago Bears are valued at over $6.3 billion. These stories have different time periods and different industries, but they all teach the same lesson: Conviction is one of the most profitable assets you can own. That’s the message I want to leave you before we move into a perhaps more entertaining topic: the economics of professional sports. Most people think of sports in terms of touchdowns, rivalries, and Super Bowl rings. But the truth is… professional sports is one of the greatest wealth-creation machines in American history. Few people understand those engines better than our guest this week. He’s one of the clearest, most respected voices in sports economics today, and he’s going to break it all down for us: salary caps, streaming deals, and team valuations.  If you are a sports fan, you are going to love this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast!

This week's Wealth Formula Podcast is about the economics of sports—if you are a sports fan like me, you will love it. But before we get to that, I want to give you my two cents on one of the most important elements to financial success in anything: conviction. As I write this, Bitcoin sold off from a high of $126K to under $90K. Other cryptos have lost 50-90 percent of their value in the same time. It's been called a blood bath. Some are even saying it's over for Bitcoin. I might even believe them if I hadn't seen the same story at least 5 times before over the past decade. True bitcoiners have tremendous belief in what bitcoin means to the world. Someone who bought $1,000 of Bitcoin in 2010 and simply refused to sell would now be sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars. That is the reward for true conviction. The irony of this bitcoin cycle is that many of those individuals with high conviction are finally cashing in on the fruit of their patience. Almost every day, another wallet that hasn't been active since 2011 is selling off a billion dollars into the market into the hands of Wall Street and governments. That's why prices are tumbling. But don't be fooled into thinking that these buyers are the dumb money holding the bag. The story does not end here. Nor is the Bitcoin story a one-off either. History repeats itself as the story of investments unfolds over time. In December 1999, Amazon stock traded at $106. After the dot-com crash, it fell to $5.97. Every talking head had a eulogy written for the company. But if you were crazy enough to hold through the storm, your conviction paid off spectacularly: $10,000 invested in Amazon in 2001 is worth over $20 million today. Now, moving on to the topics of sports. One of my favorite examples of conviction is from 1920, when George Halas bought the Chicago Bears franchise for $100. The Halas family could've "taken profits" countless times. They lived through multiple depressions, a world war, a dozen recessions, five or six league restructurings, labor disputes, player strikes, and decades of bad seasons. Anybody else would've bailed. But they didn't, and today, the Chicago Bears are valued at over $6.3 billion. These stories have different time periods and different industries, but they all teach the same lesson: Conviction is one of the most profitable assets you can own. That's the message I want to leave you before we move into a perhaps more entertaining topic: the economics of professional sports. Most people think of sports in terms of touchdowns, rivalries, and Super Bowl rings. But the truth is… professional sports is one of the greatest wealth-creation machines in American history. Few people understand those engines better than our guest this week. He's one of the clearest, most respected voices in sports economics today, and he's going to break it all down for us: salary caps, streaming deals, and team valuations. If you are a sports fan, you are going to love this week's episode of Wealth Formula Podcast!