S8 Ep52: A hundred lessons from history

The International Macroeconomic History Online Seminar Series, hosted by CEPR, is turning 100 this month — not years, but episodes. What began as a lockdown experiment has become a global fixture for anyone who believes economics never forgets. In a special edition of VoxTalks Economics, Tim Phillips talks with organisers Nathan Sussman and Rui Esteves of the Geneva Graduate Institute about the moments that shaped the series and what a hundred lessons from history can teach us today. Why does history matter so much to economists? And how can the series help us understand current events?  Nathan’s selection The great demographic reversal https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-13-great-demographic-reversal-ageing-societies-waning-inequality-and-inflation Monetary and fiscal history of the US https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-81-monetary-and-fiscal-history-united-states-1961-2021 The journey of humanity https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-37-journey-humanity Rui’s selection The Smoot-Hawley trade war https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-26-smoot-hawley-trade-war Financial sanctions https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-59-financial-sanctions-arsenal-democracy-or-feeble-weapon Industrial policy https://cepr.org/multimedia/imhos-93-panel-industrial-policy-history

In the second of our episodes based on the topics discussed at the conference “Addressing the Risks and Responses to Climate Overshoot”, organised by the AXA Research Fund, CEPR, and Paris School of Economics, Tim Phillips talks to Matthias Kalkuhl of the University of Potsdam about how to remove carbon from the atmosphere. The innovative technologies that might be able to do this in the future need investment now – so one idea is for firms to buy the right to emit carbon now, as long as they commit to remove carbon when mature technology exists. But to administer this, Europe would need a dedicated Carbon Central Bank. Who would be in charge of it, how would it work, and is any politician brave enough to set it up?

In the first of two podcasts recorded at the conference “Addressing the Risks and Responses to Climate Overshoot”, organised by the AXA Research Fund, CEPR, and Paris School of Economics, Tim Phillips talks to Franck Courchamp of the University of Paris-Saclay about an aspect of climate change that is rarely talked about, increasingly important, and very costly. When plants or animals move, or are moved, to a place they don't belong, there is a risk of damage to natural habitats and an economic cost too. So how do we estimate the size of this risk, and what can we do about it? 

It’s cultural meme that teenagers in New York and Seoul will have more in common with each other than with their parents. Has where we come from been downgraded as an influence on what we like, or is there still what Thierry Mayer of Sciences Po and CEPR calls “gravity in tastes”?  His research focuses on a very important aspect of this question: regional French food. Is there still a France of butter, and a France of olive oil? And, if there is, can we draw it on a map, or is this now a cultural and social divide, rather than a regional one? Vote for VoxTalks Economics in the 2025 Signal Awards! https://talknorm.al/vote

We are up to our necks in advice about how to innovate in business, how to succeed as a founder, or how to spot a great startup. Blogs, YouTube channels and airport bookshops claim to reveal the secret. And yet, investors and incubators have a very patchy track record in picking winners.  What if there was a better way to spot entrepreneurs who are more likely to succeed? Konrad Stahl of University of Mannheim is one of a team of researchers who have found one indicator of success that dominates all the others. He tells Tim Phillips what it is, and why it matters.

Today generative AI makes it easy to create and distribute convincing fake news stories, pictures, even videos. We’ve all been hoodwinked – but does that undermine our trust and confidence in the mainstream media? Ruben Durante of National University of Singapore, IPF-ICREA and CEPR is one of the authors of new research that tests how AI-generated misinformation affects our desire for real news. He tells Tim Phillips the good news and bad news for the future of the media’s business model.

The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, in Davos, attended by thousands of business and policy VIPs – is one of those events that pops up on the news every year, as we see photos of multinational CEOs shaking hands with world leaders and taking part in panel discussions on the future of the planet. But how valuable is it to the business people who pay hundreds of thousands of Swiss Francs to attend? Does Davos create business value, or might it be a high-profile way for them to ski and party – in the words of a new discussion paper published by CEPR, is it any more than “a boondoggle”? Andreas Fuchs of University of Goettingen is one of the researchers who asked this question. He reveals to Tim Phillips the size of the impact on stock prices and credit ratings. Photo: WEF/swiss-image.ch/Michael Buholzer

The belief that women are in some way inferior to men has been around for centuries. And throughout that time, women have suffered the consequences. Economists have lately been trying to understand more about the origins of gender biased norms, to help create better policies to challenge them. Their work can build on insights from sociology, anthropology and gender studies, but also raises important questions about the roles of men and women in society. So what should policy attempt to change?  Siwan Anderson of Vancouver School of Economics and CEPR talks to Tim Phillips about what we know on these topics – and the most promising directions for future research.

On 4 August, Paul Atkins, the chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, launched “Project Crypto”. The SEC wants to make the US “the crypto capital of the world”. Crypto investors make a lot of noise, but who are they, and do they behave differently to other retail investors? A new CEPR discussion paper called “Do you even crypto, bro?” summarises what a representative sample of US citizens think about crypto investments and highlights the gap in attitudes to risk and investing between crypto holders and the rest of the population. Michael Weber of Purdue University is one of the authors, and he tells Tim Phillips about the beliefs, the politics and the attitude to investment gains that have typified the crypto market so far.

How do criminals choose the weapons they carry, the number of accomplices, the types of business they target? Economists have long argued that decisions to commit economic crimes are strategic, based on a calculation of risk and reward.  The Italian justice system changes the punishment for a crime depending on how it is committed, and so a new analysis of thieves and their crimes, based on data from Milan, tests whether this is really the case. Giovanni Mastrobuoni of the University of Turin, Collegio Carlo Alberto and CEPR is one of the authors of this research. He talks to Tim Phillips about the economics of crime, the problems of collecting data about illegal acts, and Turin’s most famous gold heist.