Oakworth's Strategic Market Outlook: April 9, 2025

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced the U.S. economy shrank during the 1st quarter of 2025. Obviously, that is not good news. However, is it the bad news the headline would imply? Are we standing at the edge of the economic cliff? Or will the UJS economy be able to take a step back of the abyss? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and whether the U.S. is headed for a deep recession. So, is the sky really falling?

After a few days of positive returns, it seems the market panic has subsided. So, is now a good buying opportunity? Is it safe to get back into the investing waters? Or would it be prudent to wait a while? After all, the threat of tariffs are still very real and very possible. The economy appears a little weaker than it was in 2024, consumer confidence has collapsed and corporate America doesn’t have a good idea what the remainder of the year will bring. If that sounds like a good time to invest to you, have at it. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market volatility and ask a very basic question: is now the time to buy?

One of the Administration’s primary goals with the tariff wars seems to be onshoring production jobs. Intuitively, that makes sense. More jobs are almost always better than fewer. However, are these the types of jobs the American economy actually needs and the American workers actually wants? Further, what is the likelihood companies make drastic shifts in their production facilities, understanding President Trump will be gone in less than 4 years? These are great questions which need real answers. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest David McGrath discuss the potential for more manufacturing jobs in the economy and wonder whether they are worth the pain.

We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones. However, what is the probable case scenario?  Oakworth Capital’s Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.

Yesterday, the Administration announced widespread tariffs on the remainder of the world. It hit some countries harder than others, with rates which will certainly curtail trade between our country and theirs. Is this really good for overall economic activity? Given the stock markets’ extremely negative reactions, it would seem like it isn’t. So, why did we do it? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discussed the announced tariffs and their potential impact on the economy.

If the headlines have seemed somewhat repetitive recently, it is because they have been. Another day, another DOGE headline and another barb traded. The markets continue to be choppy and gold continues to rally. Foreign leaders have to be tired of bristling against comments from Washington. While arguably exciting at first, the news has become boring and predictable in its unpredictably. It has almost been like listening to the same record over and over again. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss recent global events and what has been the most surprising to them thus far in 2025. Will you be surprised by what they have to say?

  The policy making committee of the Federal Reserve met this week and didn’t cut interest rates. That was as expected. But if it was so widely expected, why did anyone care? Does the Fed have access to information the rest of us don’t? Does it have crystal balls which actually work? Are the voting members on the committee that much smarter? Or have we given the Fed magical powers it doesn’t really have? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the most recent Fed meeting and what it means for the economy, if anything.

It had all been going so nicely, had it not? The markets and the economy were better than the experts expected in 2024. Business owner and consumer confidence spiked after the November elections, and the world has been in a flurry of activity since. Unfortunately, people don’t seem to be having as much fun as they were. The markets have been bleeding red ink, and the headlines have been talking about a recession. How did we get here so quickly? And how quickly can we leave? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market turmoil and speculate on what caused it and when it will end. Let’s just say no one likes uncertainty.

Investors have been very skittish for the last couple of weeks. The potential for trade wars with the Canadians and Mexicans have people on edge, and for good reason. The economy was slowing enough on its own already. However, are tariffs really the economic death knells people think they are? Will they really cause U.S. consumer prices to go through the roof? Why do this and why do it now? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent concerns over potential trade wars with major U.S. trading partners, and ask the question: are tariffs really that bad?

Recent economic reports and corporate earnings releases suggest the vaunted U.S. consumer might be running out of steam. The official savings rate has plummeted. Consumer confidence gauges are down. Loan delinquencies are up. Mid-tier restaurant closings are becoming commonplace. So, how much longer can the ultra-wealthy continue to spend at its current level to mask these problems? Will a pullback in the stock market close the wallets of the income group currently holding the economy together? Are we at an inflection point? Because all of the negative anecdotes can’t be simply anecdotal, can they?    In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the curious case of the U.S. consumer. Much of the data suggests it is running out of gas, but some of it says otherwise. What is the truth? And what is the likelihood the consumer pulls back over the next couple of quarters?