Review of the ECB Meeting - January 2025

Join us on as we delve into the economic consequences of Europe's evolving geopolitical landscape with our guest Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Together, we tackle the pressing issues arising from an imperialistic Russia, uncertain US commitments, and China's strategic maneuvers. Tune in to understand the shifts in global order and what these could mean for Europe's economic and political strategies.

Germany's industrial powerhouse has long been the backbone of Europe’s economy. But after years of steady growth, manufacturing activity has been on a downward trajectory since 2018. Could this decline suddenly accelerate due to "cluster effects" and local economies of scale unraveling? In this episode, we dive into the forces shaping Germany’s industrial slowdown and explore whether policy interventions could halt or even reverse the trend. We ask how insights from economic theory help us make sense of these cascading risks. Join us as we discuss these pressing questions, drawing also on the academic work by David Baqaee, whose paper "Cascading Failures in Production Networks" (Econometrica, 2018) sheds light on how production networks can amplify economic shocks.

We discuss the effects of tariffs on consumers and producers, drawing on evidence from the tariff war during the first Trump administration. The empirical evidence shows that import tariffs led to increases in domestic prices, reductions in import quantities and a reduction in product variety. This coupled with additional adverse effects on global supply chains and retaliatory tariffs makes it hard to understand how the U.S. can gain in economic terms from tariffs. We draw our insights from this academic paper: Amiti, Weinstein, Redding: "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare" https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.4.187

Join our discussion of the ECB's decisions and communication following its rate setting meeting on January 30, 2025 and learn about the outlook for Euro Area growth, inflation and interest rates.

In this episode, we welcome Clemens Fuest, President of Germany's Ifo Institute, for an in-depth discussion on economic challenges and the urgent reforms needed to get Germany back on track. We dissect (i) what’s behind Germany's economic underperformance compared to its Euro Area peers, (ii) whether the upcoming elections deliver a chance for economic recovery, and (iii) what measures might be best suited to achieve a growth rebound.

Join us as we discuss with Dan Breznitz from the University of Toronto the difference between invention & innovation, the various stages of innovation and what different stages imply for the distribution of income across society. We also look at the role that innovation agencies and universities play in fostering innovation and how the divide between China and the West will affect the innovation landscape.

Join us as we discuss with Professor Gabriel Felbermayr, President of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, the forces reshaping the intricate web of global value chains. Geopolitical tensions, mounting tarrifs and regulatory crackdowns put pressure on global economic exchange and Gabriel shares his expert insights on what the future holds and what it means for businesses and economies worldwide.

In this episode, Dirk Schumacher sits down with Hadrien Camatte from Natixis to dive deep into the fallout of the Barnier government’s collapse. - Can President Macron cobble together a new government? - What were Marine Le Pen’s motivations for toppling Barnier, and what does it mean for France’s political future? - As parliamentary elections loom in mid-2025, will the country see a stable majority—or more uncertainty? - How would a provisional 2025 budget shape France’s fiscal path and consolidation efforts? - Will political instability rattle rating agencies—and could that impact bond yields?

Dive into the turbulent world of German politics as we unpack the dramatic collapse of the ruling coalition and what lies ahead in the upcoming elections. While disagreements over economic policies led to the coalition's downfall, the challenges remain unchanged: high corporate taxes, surging labor costs, and stifling bureaucratic inefficiencies. What will it take for Germany's next government to reignite growth and tackle these pressing issues? Join us to find out.

In this episode, we explore the inflation outlook for the Euro Area, honing in on whether medium-term inflation could once again fall short of the ECB's target, as it did before the pandemic. While there’s little evidence in current data to suggest an imminent undershoot—thanks to robust wage growth, persistent service price inflation, and ample room for monetary policy easing—some of these factors may ease in the coming year. This makes it crucial to keep a close eye on potential risks of undershooting.