Behind The Memo: On Bubble Watch

To celebrate the 35th anniversary of his memos, Howard Marks recently held a fireside chat for Oaktree employees. Listen to an excerpt from the conversation to hear Howard discuss why he started writing and why he’s kept at it, and learn more about the enduring investment truths encapsulated by his memos.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks sets forth the essence of value and price, as well as the critical relationship between the two. He posits that value exerts a ‘‘magnetic’’ influence on price, meaning the relationship of price to value should be expected to strongly influence investment performance in the long run, with high valuations presaging low subsequent returns, and vice versa. In the context of today’s elevated U.S. equity valuations and widespread investor optimism, he advises us to consider going to an ‘‘Investment Readiness Condition’’ in which investors shift their portfolios somewhat in the direction of increased defense.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-calculus-of-value).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the implications of governmental intervention in economies. Considering examples such as rent control, fire insurance, and tariffs, he emphasizes that while free markets don’t produce perfect solutions, efforts to control them often make things much worse. He argues that when allowed to function, the laws of economics create prosperity through incentivizing innovation and productivity. He also touches on the U.S. fiscal deficit, questioning how much longer the government can continue spending more than it takes in.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/more-on-repealing-the-laws-of-economics).

In celebration of Oaktree’s 30th anniversary on April 10, 2025, cofounders Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Bruce Karsh (Co-Chairman and Chief Investment Officer), and Sheldon Stone (Principal and Co-Portfolio Manager, High Yield Bonds) held a fireside chat for employees where they shared stories about Oaktree’s origins and the firm’s journey over the last three decades. We’re excited to share an excerpt from their conversation.

In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy.  Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences.  He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual.  Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key question regards the appropriateness of the market reaction thus far: has it been just right, excessive, or inadequate? You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again).

In his latest memo, Howard addresses a common question he’s been receiving over the last few months: “What about credit spreads?” He explains that the key question should be whether today’s spread is sufficient to offset the credit losses that’ll occur, rather than whether it’s historically narrow or not. Further, he emphasizes that spread widening is a short-term phenomenon and expresses his belief that the elevated yield offered by credit presents a better deal than equities, even at today’s spreads.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/gimme-credit).

In the latest episode of Behind the Memo, Howard discusses his recent memo, On Bubble Watch, which revisits a subject he first wrote about 25 years ago. He delves into the investor psychology that underpins a market bubble, and assesses the danger of letting excitement and fear of missing out override risk aversion.You can listen to or read the Memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).

On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com, calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howard lists the signs he sees today and suggests how you might think about them . . . just as he did 25 years ago.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ruminating-on-asset-allocation.pdf?sfvrsn=67775566_2).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the economic facts of life, as he examines the workings of free markets and what happens when they’re tampered with. He considers what “price-gouging” actually means and how rents should be set. He ultimately argues that the laws of economics shouldn’t be overridden — even when it’s politically advantageous to do so – because of the loss to society.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/shall-we-repeal-the-laws-of-economics.pdf?sfvrsn=ab205566_1).