Why Pollsters Are So Sure Democrats Will Stomp

Peter Baker, Senator Heidi Heitkamp, and Maya Wiley join Harry to discuss how President Trump—far from conceding to the verdict of voters—is sticking firmly to his unpopular, combative ways. The trio talk through what the elevation of Stephen Miller augurs for the next two years, then turn to Pete Hegseth's narrow escape from immediate impeachment, and why it’s both an embarrassment and potential blessing in disguise for Democrats. The group closes with a look at a Department of Justice shedding top lawyers in the election's aftermath. Mentioned in this episode:Peter’s reporting.Harry’s column about the case for impeaching Todd Blanche. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of Republicans’ generational midterm defeat, Harry turns to political guru Josh Marshall to make sense of how it happened and what it means for the future of American politics. Josh breaks down the crucial role of Trump’s corruption, Black voters’ anger, and careful Democratic campaigns, then lays out what the victorious party will need to do to keep the trust of the millions of Americans who propelled them past Trump’s chosen candidates. Mentioned in this episode:Josh’s analysis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Harry gathers Emily Bazelon, Jonathan Lemire, and Mike Murphy to pick through the political wreckage left after a historic Democratic deluge. The panel tackle the causes and implications of the country's momentous swing against Donald Trump. Together, they break down the Tuesday's biggest surprises, how long Trump will continue to accept the results, and what Democrats’ top priorities should be as they take command in Congress. Mentioned in this episode:Emily’s reporting.Emily’s Political Gabfest.Jonathan’s reporting.Mike’s podcast Hacks on Tap.Harry’s column on what Democrats’ accountability agenda should look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The midterms are finally here. Harry sits down with top pollster Lakshya Jain for a data-rich conversation about the voters, candidates, and trends that will shape tomorrow's results. Jain explains why he—and nearly all of his peers—are so bullish on Democrats, what it would take for polls to be wrong this time, and how movements among crucial demographics this year remind him of Obama’s 2008 run. Plus, Jain points out the tell-tale races that will be early signals of a blue tsunami or red resilience. Mentioned in this episode:Jain's analysis.Split Ticket's midterms model. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With less than a week until the midterms, Democrats are poised to retake the House, with the Senate also in play. But as a blue wave builds, Trump and his allies are launching dubious lawsuits that challenge states’ authority over elections. The cases may fail in court, but could serve a larger purpose: fueling Trump’s familiar claims that any Republican defeat was the result of a rigged election. Harry speaks with Amanda Litman, Tara Setmayer, and Glenn Thrush to break down the final stretch of the midterms, both in court and at the polls. Mentioned in this episode:The ⁠video version⁠ of this episode.Amanda’s Substack.Glenn’s ⁠reporting⁠.Tara's Substack.Harry's Substack.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nearly every pundit says the midterms will be about the economy. So how, exactly, is the economy doing? Harry turns to economist Justin Wolfers for answers. Slicing deep into some elaborate pie metaphors, the two explore how President Trump’s policies have let down the Americans they were supposed to help, what commentators are missing in the conversation about gas prices, and how a new Congress could start to put things right. Mentioned in this episode:Platypus Economics on Youtube.Platypus Economics on Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What if ICE raids polling places on election day? What if MAGA sheriffs seize ballot boxes? What if a red-state official refuses to certify a Democrat’s narrow victory? These are the nightmare scenarios that could dam an anti-Trump midterm wave and plunge our democracy into crisis. That’s why champions of voting rights have spent years preparing for them. In this special episode Harry speaks with Jonathan Diaz, David Ogden, Joyce Vance, and Wendy Weiser about the crucial effort to protect the midterms—and just what precisely will happen if Trump or his cronies try to steal them.  Mentioned in this episode:  Jonathan’s Campaign Legal Center. David’s Democracy Defenders Fund. Joyce’s Substack.  Wendy’s Brennan Center for Justice.  Harry’s column about the DOJ’s latest election moves. The “866 Our Vote” election protection site. Key federal laws protecting voting rights. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Reporter Glenn Thrush joins Harry to shine a klieg light into the recesses of a Department of Justice running itself into the ground to please Donald Trump. Armed with previously unreported details, Glenn shares the inside story of why Trump loyalists departed the vaunted “grand conspiracy” investigation, which he calls “essentially dead.” Glenn also explains Todd Blanche's precarious position and why Cassidy Hutchinson has become a top target. Plus, Glenn warns that the midterms—”regardless of the result”—will bring a grave reckoning for the DOJ.Mentioned in this episode:Glenn’s reporting: https://www.nytimes.com/by/glenn-thrush#latest. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michelle Cottle, David Gura, and Charlie Sykes join Harry to discuss Republicans’ closing moves ahead of the midterms, new politicization at DOJ, and Pete Hegseth’s bid to livestream a firing squad. Will Trump’s battleground tour staunch Republican bleeding, or worsen it? Can administration lawyers keep getting away with casually disobeying judges? And will Trump pull the plug on the Pentagon’s effort to get the U.S. into the exclusive club of nations that perform public executions—joining current members Afghanistan and Iran? Mentioned in this episode:Michelle’s analysis.David’s reporting.Charlie’s Substack.Harry’s column about Cassidy Hutchinson.Michael Tomasky’s piece about the planned livestreamed execution.Congressman Thomas Massie’s Hegseth impeachment resolution. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ambassador Susan Rice led President Obama’s national security team and helped secure the Iran nuclear deal. As she looks around the world now, the threat she can’t stop thinking about isn’t Russia or China, but AI. She joins Harry to break down the dangers the technology poses to Americans and what she thinks the Trump administration needs to do to guard against them. Then Harry draws on Ambassador Rice’s wide-ranging expertise for her assessment of the endgame with Iran, the state of U.S. alliances, and what Democrats should do if they retake Congress.  Mentioned in this episode:Ambassador Rice’s Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices