#550: Predicting The Impact of Derivatives on Bitcoin with James Check

Marty sits down with James Pierog to discuss Bitcoin Prediction Market. James on Twitter: https://x.com/BillyHongBeats Bitcoin Prediction Market: https://www.bitcoinprediction.info/ 0:00 - Intro 1:38 - Arriving at Bitcoin Prediction Market 12:03 - Comparing to Polymarket and crypto model 16:37 - Unchained & Coinkite 18:31 - Prediction algorithm 21:30 - Predicting and potentially preventing conflicts 30:41 - BOLT12, ecash and DLCs 37:28 - Zaprite and SOTE 39:01 - BPM vs Polymarket UX simplicity 44::36 - Oracle problem and centralization 49:13 - Trust and debt 57:06 - Singapore's authoritarianism unlocked bitcoin for James 1:08:32 - Psychic powers and tools for liberation 1:24:37 - Feather forks and ordinals 1:31:17 - Monetizing art and industry power games 1:38:35 - Adoption inertia and timing 1:43:34 - Native use case and exchange theory of value 1:47:27 - Final thoughts Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Join Marty Bent, John Arnold and Grant Gilliam of Ten31 for the inaugural episode of Bitcoin Alpha. Ten31: https://ten31.vc/ 0:00 - Disclaimer 0:24 - Introductions 9:19 - Comparing underwriting in Bitcoin vs trad banking 13:05 - Minneapolis Fed paper 22:48 - Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller 29:54 - Ten31's unique bitcoin focus 39:25 - Bitcoin's dominance over time 56:04 - Bridge/Stripe deal 1:16:37 - Wrapping up

Today, Marty sat down with Ed Butowsky to discuss the real inflation numbers the Fed is hiding from Americans. They cover the cost-of-living increases that the CPI falsely shows by analyzing the Chapwood index. This ranges from higher food prices to higher energy costs. True Inflation data is much higher than most think, affecting all economic data, including real GDP growth. Ed on Twitter: https://x.com/EdButowsky Chapwood Index: https://chapwoodindex.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:31 - Cost-of-Living Adjustment 7:17 - Mischaracterization of CPI 10:01 - Fed policy and GDP 15:38 - Unchained & Coinkite 17:31 - Effect of band aid policy and gaslighting 20:07 - Sovereign debt crisis and monetary base 23:39 - Realistic risk estimates for clients 25:26 - Zaprite & SOTE 26:59 - Bitcoin 31:55 - Defaults and dollar weaponization 34:50 - Trump & conservative policy 40:32 - State autonomy and energy renaissance 43:02 - Wrap up Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with James Check to discuss how institutions utilizing bitcoin derivatives will change how bitcoin's price moves. James on Twitter: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_ James's Newsletter: https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:17 - Explaining chopsolidation and institutional reaction 12:48 - Options and other derivatives 18:54- Unchained 19:45 - A new breed of hodler 27:12 - Zaprite and SOTE 28:44 - Volatility 36:27 - Comparing to previous cycles 42:18 - How would a major crisis affect price? 48:09 - Dispassionate decision-making 51:25 - Will they successfully demonize bitcoin? 58:01 - Institutional alliance and gold 1:09:00 - How high 1:15:00 - James's newsletter Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Dr. Peter McCullough to discuss the continuing damage from the Covid-19 vaccines. Peter McCullough on Twitter: https://x.com/P_McCulloughMD 0:00 - Intro0:36 - Catastrophic damage from jabs4:39 - The censorship continues6:34 - Can Trump presidency change things?9:05 - Vaccine religion14:00 - Unchained, Zaprite & SOTE16:23 - FDA funded by big pharma17:51 - Impact on children21:19 - Bitcoin, defunding the bullshit23:04 - Tides may be changing Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Parker Lewis to discuss his new piece on bitcoin's vital function as a unit of exchange. Parker on Twitter: https://x.com/parkeralewis Read Parker's article: https://graduallythensuddenly.xyz/exchange-theory-of-value/?ref=tftc.io 0:00 - Intro 1:26 - Money touches everything 11:06 - Exchange theory of value 17:20 - Unchained 18:12 - Exchange is not zero sum 25:12 - Debasement interferes with market communication 33:21 - Zaprite & SOTE 34:54 - Is now the time to switch? 41:59 - Educating Zaprite customers 53:00 - Don’t rug yourself with fiat 57:53 - Bitcoin per unit mindset 1:06:10 - Competitive advantage against the vicious dollar cycle 1:11:34 - Parker’s urgency 1:16:13 - Political influence 1:28:22 - Check out Parker's stuff Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Courtney Swan to discuss her fight with Kellogg's and the other corporations controlling America's food. Courtney's links: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/realfoodology/?hl=en Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/realfoodology/id1529008803 Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKnDft-Ovm1iTfSN1kn957A Website: https://www.realfoodology.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Kellogg's and GRAS 6:50 - Fiat food 10:01 - Obesity and Ozempic 12:41 - Unchained 13:32 - Food Pyramid and farm subsidies 18:52 - MAHA 22:46 - Corporations aren't handling it well 24:49 - Nutrition's effect on the mind 28:56 - Zaprite and SOTE 30:29 - Predatory marketing and parent responsibility 36:29 - Exposing corruption 40:08 - Bitcoin defends you from fiat food 42:06 - Policy change and accountability 48:43 - Bad economic incentives in modern medicine 58:38 - Raw milk, cow farts and other psyops 1:05:13 - Go cancel Kellogg's Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Leon Wankum to discuss how bitcoin will demonetize real estate. Leon's links: https://linktr.ee/leonwankum 0:00 - Intro 0:57 - Leon's background 5:13 - How did the real estate premium develop? 12:15 - Why bitcoin improves real estate 17:54 - Bitkey 18:49 - Higher quality, lower cost 23:52 - Why the macro environment may temper the next bull 26:51 - Bitcoin will threaten real estate business models 34:00 - When should a bitcoiner buy a house? 38:29 - Bitcoin will take over real estate's collateral function 44:52 - First movers and trend setters 54:22 - Bitcoin is easier 59:28 - Real estate will be drained like monarchs in the industrial revolution 1:06:17 - A unique shield against societal collapse 1:13:14 - Plugs Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Guy Swann to discuss how bitcoin is helping in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Guy on Twitter: https://x.com/theguyswann Bitcoin Veterans: https://bitcoinveterans.org/home/ Bitcoin Veterans NC/TN donation page: https://pay.zaprite.com/pl_Mibjv4lkEs 0:00 - Intro 1:29 - Inept/malicious response to disaster 6:10 - Bitcoin Veterans 11:38 - Destruction and loss 15:35 - Flooding 19:59 - Unchained 20:50 - Absurd resource allocation 30:18 - Zaprite 31:18 - People are 1000x more effective than govt 42:14 - Lethargy in the face of a ticking clock 48:38 - Why rules exist 53:30 - Disaster and conflict rackets 1:00:27 - Ungovernable media and ridicule 1:12:16 - How worldviews change 1:26:29 - Overwhelming innovation 1:32:11 - Why open source AI will win 1:38:34 - Approaching AI practically 1:52:30 - Plugging important stuff Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Marty sits down with Ed Dowd to discuss FEMA looting the treasury, predictions for the election, and the forth turning. Ed on Twitter: https://x.com/DowdEdward 0:00 - Intro 1:17 - Approaching an inflection point 7:08 - Exploiting climate disasters 15:40 - Unchained 16:31 - Election probabilities & Trump victory scenario 27:21 - CBDCs and Fed printing 32:10 - Zaprite 33:10 - Real estate and VCs 39:13 - Elite Theory & Trump’s capabilities upon victory 43:06 - Covid jab impact 50:55 - Fourth turning 1:01:00 - Solutions and hope 1:05:42 - Economic illiteracy in policy 1:08:47 - Truth to power 1:11:34 - Deflation prediction Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained https://unchained.com/concierge/ Zaprite https://zaprite.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/