The Unlikely Rise of MBS (w/ Karen Elliott House)

Eric and Eliot welcome Yaakov Katz, former Editor-in-Chief of the Jerusalem Post and co-author of While Israel Slept: How Hamas Surprised the Most Powerful Military in the Middle East. They discuss Israel's persistent misjudgments of Hamas and lack of preparedness for October 7, highlighting the impact of Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza and the absence of on-the-ground intelligence that blinded Israel to Hamas’s plans. They also note the ongoing traumatic impact on the IDF, the danger of overlearning lessons from October 7, Israel's shortcomings in telling its own story, and the contrast between Israel's failures in Gaza and its successes in Lebanon and in the 12-Day War with Iran. While Israel Slept: How Hamas Surprised the Most Powerful Military in the Middle East: https://a.co/d/iT0D7QD Shadow Strike: Inside Israel's Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power: https://a.co/d/62dAcdi Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes Stephan Kieninger, author of Securing Peace in Europe: Strobe Talbott, NATO and Russia After the Cold War. They discuss the role of Strobe Talbott, a close Clinton confidante and Deputy Secretary of State, in crafting Clinton’s strategy for building a “Europe whole and free” after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They cover U.S. efforts to stabilize Russia’s move toward a free market and democracy in the 1990s, the negotiation of the Budapest Memorandum, which led to the return of Soviet nuclear weapons left on Ukrainian soil after the breakup of the USSR, and the Bosnia crisis, including Talbott’s part in bringing Richard Holbrooke to lead its resolution. They examine at length Talbott’s strategy for enlarging NATO at the 1997 Madrid Summit while also negotiating a NATO-Russia agreement, offering Russia a voice, but not a veto, in European security. They close their conversation by considering the Clinton Administration’s role in supporting Russian reform efforts during the 1998 economic meltdown, the souring effect of the war in Kosovo on NATO-Russia relations, and the rise of Vladimir Putin. Securing Peace in Europe: Strobe Talbott, NATO, and Russia After the Cold War: https://cup.columbia.edu/series/woodrow-wilson-center-series/

Eliot and Eric welcome John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Madison Policy Forum and Co-Director of the Urban Warfare Project and author of numerous articles and studies of urban and subterranean warfare. They discuss the unique characteristics of urban warfare, the traditional U.S. military approach to urban warfare as well as historical examples from the U.S.-Mexican War in the 19th Century to more recent examples like the Battle of Aachen in World War II and the Battles of Baghdad, Fallujah, and Sadr City during the Iraq War. Based on Spencer's multiple trips to Israel and Gaza, they also discuss how the Israeli Defense Forces have attempted to deal with the even more difficult urban warfare conditions in Gaza including the more than 400 miles of tunnels that created enormously complicated problems for Israeli forces attempting to destroy Hamas's 24 battalions of some 30 to 40 thousand fighters and the inevitable impact that has on civilian populations. They also discuss the information or cognitive warfare dimension of fighting on urban terrain and the difficulties Israel has had in that regard. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric are joined by Juan Carlos Pinzón, former Colombian Minister of Defense and two-time Ambassador to the U.S. They discuss the success of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe's counterinsurgency efforts against FARC and narco-trafficking, the subsequent domestic developments in Colombia that have led to significant backsliding on narco-trafficking, as well as the current prosecution of the former President in Colombia's courts of law. They also discuss the revival of leftism in the Western Hemisphere and the Trump Administration's initial diplomatic undertakings in the region. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss Secretary Hegseth's restoration of the '"Reunion" memorial at Arlington National Cemetery, the President's nationalizing of the DC National Guard to engage in law enforcement in the nation's capital, and the diplomatic pratfalls of Steve Witkoff whose misinterpretation of President Putin has resulted in the misbegotten forthcoming summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin. To distract themselves from the administration's ongoing idiocy Eric and Eliot discuss their summer reading including Toby Wilkinson's A World Beneath the Sands, H. Ridder Haggard's She, and Daniel Silva's An Inside Job among others.

Eliot and Eric welcome Fred Starr, former President of Oberlin University and current Chairman of the Central Asia and Caucasus Institute (CACI). They discuss the current situation in Russia and highlight the logistic difficulties and enormous human and material losses that Russian forces are facing. They also discuss Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan which are rich in mineral and hydrocarbon resources but have been governed by strongmen in the post-communist era. Finally, they conclude the conversation with an overview of the Caucuses highlighting the desire of many former Soviet states to escape Moscow's imperial shadow. Red and Hot: The Fate of Jazz in the Soviet Union: https://a.co/d/a8EbOiO Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot address the latest buffoonery emanating from the Pentagon before turning to a discussion about Trump's evolving position on Russia. They also address the horrendous situation in Gaza and try to apportion blame as fairly as possible given the difficulty of parsing statements by both Hamas and the Israeli government. The conversation includes updates on the situations in Syria, Iran, and domestically on Columbia University's recent settlement with the Trump Administration. Secretary of Defense Hegseth's Think Tank Ban: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/28/pentagon-think-tank-ban-confusion-reaction-00480095 Hegseth's Clash with Pentagon Leadership: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/us/politics/hegseth-pentagon-leadership.html Matti Friedman: Is Gaza Starving? Searching for the Truth in an Information War: https://www.thefp.com/p/matti-friedman-is-gaza-starving-searching-for-truth-in-information-war Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Karen Elliott House, former long-time correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, President of Dow Jones International, Publisher of the Wall Street Journal and author of The Man Who Would Be King: Mohammed Bin Salman and the Transformation of Saudi Arabia (New York: HarperCollins, 2025). They discuss the rise of MBS, the scope of the changes he has wrought in the Kingdom in less than a decade in power, the ongoing forces of resistance to change, his effort to replace Islam with nationalism as a force binding Saudis together, and MBS's views of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a "middle power' in a world of great power competition. The Man Who Would Be King: Mohammed bin Salman and the Transformation of Saudi Arabia: https://a.co/d/etBZ1Yp Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Rebecca Friedman Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper to Shield of the Republic to discuss their recent article in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, "Absent at the Creation?: American Strategy and the Delusion of a Post-Trump Restoration." They discuss the speed with which Trump has imposed policy changes, the likelihood that old international order will be irreparably broken by the end of this term, the limits of American resilience, and the emergence of a multipolar world order. They also discuss challenges to American pre-eminence of emerging technologies and "compounding geopolitical risks" that Trump's cuts to research, assault on universities, and limits on tech transfer to China will do to U.S. innovation and international competitiveness. Note: After this episode was recorded the Trump administration announced approval of AI semiconductor chip sales to China. Rebecca Lissner & Mira Rapp-Hooper's latest in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/absent-creation-rebecca-lissner An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order: https://a.co/d/bHYjPGk Shields of the Republic: The Triumph and Peril of America’s Alliances: https://a.co/d/8hzZNaI Wars of Revelation: The Transformative Effects of Military Intervention on Grand Strategy https://a.co/d/a65aUif Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot cover the latest Pentagon dysfunction, with military aid to Ukraine stalled and mixed signals on Trump’s defense policy. They also look at the Iran strikes, Trump’s shifting posture on Putin, and the growing strain inside the MAGA foreign policy orbit.