Navigating the Turbulence

On this week’s episode of the Rosenberg Round-Up, we discuss what’s behind the recent rebound in equities and the changing cross-asset picture, as well as what the 28% downward revision in employment growth is telling us. We also shed light on what lingering risks in the Commercial Real Estate sector mean for bank stocks. Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected]  In This Episode The Week in Review (0:50) — What’s changing relative asset prices, and some notes on Harris’ economic agenda The Week Ahead (9:21) — Personal Income and Expenditure headline the week The Spotlight (9:57) — The overlooked risks of rising CRE distress Canada Corner (11:38) — Don’t shed a tear for the loonie

The September FOMC meeting is about how much to cut rates | A look at the Harris vs. Trump polls and what it means for markets | The case for gold is stronger than ever   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected]   In This Episode The Week in Review (0:44) — Cooling U.S. inflation puts the Fed on notice (despite hot retail sales) The Week Ahead (10:12) — All eyes on the Democratic convention and Jackson Hole   The Spotlight (14:29) — $3,000 per ounce is still the target for gold

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome seasoned market economist and current Columbia Business School professor Brett House to discuss the Yen carry trade reversal sending shockwaves through markets, all things Powell and the Fed with a special look at Jackson Hole, Trump vs. Harris and the Bank of Canada   The Yen carry trade reversal (1:35) | The Fed’s assessment of the U.S. economy (10:16) | Three counter-arguments why this time is different (17:00) | What to expect from Jackson Hole (23:25) | Upcoming U.S. Presidential election (25:35) | Any concern about the BoC’s rate cuts (30:45)   For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial

Taking stock after a volatile week | Macro data will drive markets | Going defensive   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected] In This Episode The Week in Review (1:06) — Dissecting the sell-off The Week Ahead (9:40) — Markets primed to sell on dovish surprises   The Spotlight (10:54) — How to reposition the equity portfolio Canada Corner (12:00) — Bank of Canada back to balance 

The evolving global rate picture | Earnings to drive market in macro-lite week ahead | How to invest in the land of the rising Yen   Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected]   In This Episode The Week in Review (0:47) — The Fed stayed on the sidelines while the BoJ hiked and the BoE cut The Week Ahead (8:05) — A light data flow puts earnings center-stage The Spotlight (9:45) — Japan: what a fading carry trade means for investors

The bull run has come to a grinding halt as large-cap tech retreats from overstretched valuations. But the concerning macro narrative driving the rest of the market deserves more attention. Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected] In This Episode The Week in Review (0:00:52) — The bull run grinds to a halt as the global macro outlook weakens The Week Ahead (0:12:30) — Fed and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls take center stage  The Spotlight (0:16:02) — We introduce our new and improved Beige Book Sentiment Index

Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected] In This Episode The Week in Review (0:40) — The market shifts its focus from growth to value — but don’t call it the “Trump Trade” The Week Ahead (7:05) — Flash PMIs and U.S. Q2 GDP The Spotlight (9:00) — A bullish view on (most) U.K. assets following a historic election Canada Corner (16:52) — Bank of Canada prepares a second cut

Powell signaled the need for more “confidence” in his congressional testimony – did a light inflation print deliver it? We also touch on political and economic developments in Europe, and shine our spotlight on the upcoming earnings season.  Visit our sponsor Kalshi today and get $20 in credit to start trading: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/rosenberg For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠ Send us your questions and requests at: [email protected] In This Episode The Week in Review (0:41) — U.S. CPI delivers a downside surprise, and why we were disappointed by Powell’s testimony The Week Ahead (11:21) — Activity data in the U.S. as politics dominates the news flow The Spotlight (14:19) — What to look for and where to find value as Q2 earnings season kicks off

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome back our Founder and President, David Rosenberg, to get his views on a perplexing stock market, what we can learn from the past, and how to think about the U.S. election – among much else. Is this even a bull market? (0:30) David's Philosophy on Investing in this market (2:57)What is the discount rate telling us right now? ( 5:24)How the average U.S. household invests? (9:00)Dave's thoughts on index funds (16:10)Investing around elections ( 21: 54 )Final thoughts on the equity market ( 28:42 ) For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial