PODCAST: Spencer Fernando on Trump's shadow, Poilievre's dilemma, Harper's leadership, and Carney's maneuvering

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a closer look at the link between oil & pipelines and our trading relationship with the United States. Recent headlines would suggest that a new pipeline to the U.S. may be back on the table and that this could play a key role in CUSMA re-negotiations.We’re joined in this episode by Adam Waterous, CEO of Waterous Energy Fund and Executive Chairman at Strathcona Resources. He’s urging government, industry, and Canadians to pay close attention to what’s happening here and to understand the tremendous leverage Canada has right now with regard to American energy needs and energy security. Reviving Keystone XL - or a similar project - could be a win-win for Canada and the U.S. and could help us secure a beneficial trade deal with our most important trading partner. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a closer look at two major challenges affecting Canada right now: the political challenges around national unity and the potential return of high inflation, driven by surging oil prices,.We’ll hear from Mark Milke, founder and president of the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy - they’ve released new polling and a new analysis of how Canadians perceive unfair and unbalanced representation in this country and what steps need to be taken to reduce tensions around national unity. Mark makes the case that it’s western alienation that deserves the most attention right now.Plus, the Bank of Canada has decided to hold the line on interest rates amid an expectation that the sharp increase in oil prices could once again unleash higher inflation rates. But is there much that monetary policy can do in the face of that sort of supply side shock? We’ll hear from Steve Ambler, he’s David Dodge Chair in Monetary Policy at the CD Howe Institute.Plus, some thoughts on Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a deep dive on the conflict that is dominating global headlines and rattling global markets - how does this all end for Iran’s regime and the Iranian people?We’ll speak with Kaveh Shahrooz - he’s a lawyer and human rights activist and also a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.We’ll hear his case for why this military intervention was moral and justifiable and why he’s been frustrated with Canada’s shifting position. We’ll also look at where things stand now with an isolated and degraded regime, but a regime that remains in place for now.Plus, we’ll take a closer look at why the Iranian people have been rising up in protest against the regime and also why Iran’s rulers have been so hell-bent on acquiring a nuclear arsenal. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a closer look at the of the recent surge in oil prices driven by the conflict in Iran and what it all means for Canada and Alberta in particular.The US-Israeli attack has dealt quite a blow to the Iranian regime, much uncertainty remains in terms of what happens next and how long this conflict could drag on for. One thing is for sure: it’s all certainly having an impact on global markets, particularly when it comes to the price of oil.We’ll hear from Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context. We’ll get his insight on the impact this conflict is having on global oil prices and how the price of oil could surge even higher in the days and weeks ahead. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’ll look at the bleak state of Alberta’s finances in the aftermath of a new budget awash in red ink.The new budget forecasts a deficit of $9.37-billion followed by subsequent deficits for the foreseeable future - all of which violates the government’s own fiscal framework. Spending has reached a record level of almost $84-billion and the budget has become even more reliant on resource revenues. Approximately $24-billion in resource revenue would be needed by next year just to balance the budget.Debt is set to surpass $100-billion, leaving a mounting annual cost of servicing that debt - now over $3-billion.So what’s become of the government’s commitment to fiscal conservatism and responsible fiscal management? What’s it going to take to bridge this huge gap between what the government believes it needs to spend versus what’s its prepared to raise in revenue?We’ll speak with Kris Sims, Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and get her assessment of this budget and where things are headed fiscally in Alberta. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’re joined by Edmonton-based Postmedia columnist Lorne Gunter to take a closer look at some major political developments this week.We start with some reaction and analysis of the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down many of Donald Trump’s tariffs. How excited or relieved should Canadians be and what next for the Canada-U.S. relationship and the prospect of saving the CUSMA trade deal.We’ll also delve into the televised address from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, which warned about a difficult upcoming budget, but also laid out plans for a number of referendum questions - specifically around immigration policy and constitutional reform - to be put to Albertans on October 19th? Is this smart strategy? A distraction or scapegoat? And could this take the wind out of the sails of separatists?Plus, as Canada seeks closer trade ties with China, a new report from the Montreal Institute for Global Security warns Canada not to be “naïve” about the threat posed by China. This report examines the phenomenon of transnational repression and the threat it represents to security and democracy in Canada. We’ll be joined by Phil Gurski, one of the report’s co-authors. He spent over 30 years in Canada’s intelligence community and is now a fellow at MIGS. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, the latest on the Canada-U.S. relationship amid new threats from Donald Trump and a hopeful sign in the U.S. Congress as the House of Representatives voted to end tariffs on Canada.Of course, this doesn’t end all of this trade drama and it may not even end these specific tariffs. There is still a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality and constitutionality of many of Trump’s tariffs and there is also still the CUSMA/USMCA renegotiations. Trump’s sudden focus on the new Gordie Howe International Bridge shows the degree to which all of this is still very volatile and unpredictable.We’re joined in this episode by Bryan Riley, director of the Free Trade Initiative at the Washington, DC-based National Taxpayers Union. We’ll get his thoughts on the significance of this week’s developments, and also take a broader look at the negative impact of tariffs and trade barriers, why free trade is worth preserving, and whether it’s possible to rebuild a pro-trade consensus. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, a conversation with widely followed political commentator and analyst Spencer Fernando. We’ll take a closer look at how U.S. President Donald Trump continues to turn Canadian politics on its head and how Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre needs to speak to this challenge and confront this threat. Also, we’ll discuss former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s re-emergence on the national political scene and the important words he offered for how Canada needs to respond to the external threat of Trump and internal threats to national unity. Plus, Prime Minister Mark Carney abandons yet another Trudeau-era policy as the Liberal government tries to navigate the new trade landscape.YouTube:Apple Podcasts:Spotify: Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we’ll take a closer look at the state of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leadership of Pierre Poilievre.Conservatives are gathering in Calgary this weekend for their annual convention, which will feature an important speech from Poilievre before a leadership review.We’ll speak with Ben Woodfinden, who’s a senior advisor with Meredith, Boessenkool, & Phillips and a former communications director for Pierre Poilievre. We’ll get his perspective on how secure Poilievre’s position in, how the leader has shaped the party and Canadian conservatism, and what to expect in 2026.Plus, the latest from the premiers’ gathering this week in Ottawa amid questions about Alberta separation, foreign interference, and the possibility of building a new pipeline to the west coast. Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of the Rob Breakenridge Show, we look back on a dramatic and consequential week for Canada. Following the announcement of a Canada-China trade deal in Beijing, Prime Minister Mark Carney was off to Davos and the World Economic Forum, where he delivered a speech of considerable significance - one that did not go unnoticed by U.S. President Donald Trump.We’re joined by Globe & Mail columnist Andrew Coyne for a conversation about this new Carney doctrine, and what it means for our relationship with the U.S. - as well as our relationship with our NATO partners and European allies. Is this really a turning point? Has there really been a “rupture” in the rules-based international order? Get full access to Rob Breakenridge at robbreakenridge.substack.com/subscribe