Episode 435: Catching Up To Risk Parity And Fun With Forex And A Vanguard Market Neutral Fund

In this episode we answer emails from Tracy, Mike and "Some Call Me" Tim.  We discuss the speculations and gambles of Forex, portfolio transitions, the Vanguard Market Neutral Fund and moving overseas.  And we have a mystery guest reader!Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterCatching Up To FI Website:  Financial Independence - Catching up to FIVMNFX Testfolio Comparative Analysis:  https://testfol.io/analysis?s=eFgblWT8SJOVMNFX Home Page:  VMNFX-Vanguard Market Neutral Fund Investor Shares | VanguardMorningstar VMNFX:  VMNFX – Vanguard Market Neutral Inv Fund Stock Price | MorningstarBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Navigating the complex world of personal finance often means confronting tough questions about investments we don't fully understand, partners who approach money differently, and life transitions that demand portfolio adjustments. This episode dives deep into three listener questions that illuminate these challenges.When Tracy's husband becomes deeply invested in forex trading despite a significant loss, she makes the bold decision to split their investment portfolios. This raises fascinating questions about marriage, money, and risk tolerance. Frank unpacks the reality of forex trading, explaining why it's neither an investment nor typically suitable for most individual investors. Drawing from his own trading experience in the 1990s, he distinguishes between disciplined speculation and outright gambling, offering clarity for anyone tempted by the allure of currency trading. As Tracy approaches her financial independence number, Frank provides thoughtful guidance on transitioning from an accumulation portfolio to a more conservative allocation while markets remain strong—wisdom applicable to anyone approaching their financial goals.The exploration continues with an analysis of Vanguard's Market Neutral Fund, revealing how even traditional investment companies offer alternative strategies that many investors overlook. While this long-short fund provides impressive diversification benefits, its lackluster returns highlight the trade-offs investors must consider when pursuing uncorrelated assets. For listeners curious about expanding beyond conventional index funds, this segment offers valuable perspective on evaluating alternative investments.Finally, for those contemplating international moves while managing US retirement accounts, Frank provides practical advice that cuts through confusion. By focusing on investment fundamentals rather than geographical considerations, he reminds us that solid financial principles transcend borders. Whether you're wrestling with a spouse's different investment philosophy, considering alternative assets, or planning an international life change, this episode delivers insights to help navigate your financial journey with confidence and clarity.Support the show

In this episode we answer questions from Mason, Brian, and Anonymous.  We discuss portfolio transitions from a highly overlapped portfolio and related consideration, treasury strips funds and leveraged ETFs (twice), and the power of advice from the great Jim Rohn.  UNLIMITED POWER.Just remember that "Affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion."And we discuss our campaign for the Father McKenna Center and Quebecois updates to our website.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterThe Source of the "We Don't Know" Clip:  Jim Rohn Join the 3% Club and Walk away from the 97%Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Transforming your portfolio into a risk parity approach doesn't have to be complicated, but it does require both strategy and courage. This episode dives deep into listener questions about making that transition while navigating tax implications and psychological barriers.When Mason asks about converting his advisor-built collection of funds into a risk parity portfolio, Frank reveals a crucial insight most investors miss: holding multiple similar funds creates "false diversification." Those four large-cap funds in your portfolio? They're basically the same investment with different names. True diversification comes from understanding what's inside each fund, not collecting different tickers.For those curious about leveraged ETFs like UPRO, Brian's question leads to fascinating observations about why some leveraged products perform better than others. The conversation reveals why Treasury strips funds like GOVZ/ZROZ make reasonable substitutions for standard Treasury allocations, while leveraged gold ETFs might be problematic for long-term investors. Frank shares his personal experience reducing his own UPRO allocation and explains why experimentation with small portions of your portfolio is the wisest approach to newer investment strategies.The philosophical foundation of the show emerges when a listener asks about the "Nobody Knows" sound clip. The attribution to motivational speaker Jim Rohn opens a window into the mindset that drives successful investing. Rohn's philosophy that "affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion" perfectly captures why just thinking about better investment outcomes isn't enough—you must take action to create them.Ready to reshape your investment approach? This episode provides both the practical steps and the motivational spark to move forward confidently. As Rohn reminds us, "If you think investing is risky, wait till you get the tab for not investing."Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from I Have No Name, Deep and Joel.  We discuss the extraordinary generosity of our listeners and how it uplifts the workers in the FMC trenches, rebalancing in accumulation, tax considerations for an intermediate term portfolio, saving for college, and what to do with new money just a few years from retirement.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.To donate to the Top of the T-Shirt campaign and double your fun, please visit the Father McKenna Center donation page and note "Risk Parity Radio Match" when making your contribution.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterFMC Instagram Page:  The Father McKenna Center (@thefathermckennacenter) • Instagram photos and videosFMC Facebook Page:  The Father McKenna Center | Washington D.C. DC | FacebookBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Charitable giving and strategic investing merge powerfully in this week's episode as we celebrate remarkable fundraising success and tackle sophisticated portfolio questions. What began as a modest matching campaign for the Father McKenna Center has exploded into something extraordinary—over $22,000 raised in just two weeks, including a single $15,000 anonymous donation that left me nearly speechless. The genuine impact of this community's generosity on homeless and hungry individuals in DC cannot be overstated.Diving into listener questions, we explore the nuances of portfolio construction across different life stages. For physicians in their accumulation phase, we distinguish between large cap growth and large cap value when paired with small cap value, revealing how Shannon's Demon effect operates during dollar-cost averaging. The discussion expands into tax-efficient risk parity strategies for high-income earners, offering practical guidance on minimizing taxable events while maximizing returns.Parents of newborns will appreciate our deep dive into college savings strategies, including the optimal 50-50 large cap growth and small cap value approach that investment educator Paul Merriman and I both recommend. I share tactical insights on 529 plans versus brokerage accounts, suggesting that funding 529 plans earlier in a child's life maximizes tax advantages before transitioning to additional savings vehicles.For those approaching retirement, we address the critical transition from accumulation to decumulation portfolios, emphasizing that your financial independence number—not market predictions—should drive allocation decisions. The episode concludes with our weekly review of eight sample portfolios, highlighting performance across conservative, balanced, and experimental approaches.Follow the Father McKenna Center on social media to witness the direct impact of your donations, and consider contributing to our ongoing "Top of the T-shirt" campaign through July. Your support transforms lives while you transform your investment approach.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Brent, Peter and Cy.  We discuss our Father McKenna Center Top-of-the-T-Shirt Matching Campaign (again), Peter's risk-parity style portfolio in retirement and what to do with new cash coming in, and Cy's small cap value direct indexing experiment.If you'd like to support the Father McKenna Center and get your questions answered on the show, please donate through the link in the show notes. Every dollar will be doubled through our matching campaign.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterStacking Benjamins YouTube Live Stream Roundtable:  Decumulational Strategies: The Special Retirement Spend Down Strategy RoundtableHendrik Bessembinder on Rational Reminder Podcast:  Episode 346 - Hendrik Bessembinder: Why It's So Hard to Beat the Market — Rational ReminderBreathless AI-Bot Summary:Marching to the beat of your own financial drummer doesn't mean ignoring proven investment principles. In this insight-packed episode, I dive into personalized portfolio construction for retirement success while answering thoughtful questions from listeners who've supported our Father McKenna Center charity campaign.When constructing retirement portfolios, certain parameters consistently enable higher safe withdrawal rates: 40-70% in equities, 15-30% in treasury bonds, 10-25% in alternatives, and less than 10% in cash. We explore how one listener's portfolio elegantly captures these parameters with a 60/40 split tilted toward value and supplemented with gold, managed futures, and preferred shares.The eternal question of adding international exposure resurfaces as we examine AVDV (international small-cap value) and IDMO (international momentum). While these funds have performed admirably this year—partly due to dollar weakness—I caution against chasing recent performance without long-term commitment. The property and casualty insurance sector (KBWP) similarly warrants consideration for its diversification benefits, having weathered the 2022 downturn admirably.Perhaps most fascinating is our deep dive into direct indexing small-cap value stocks. One listener's meticulous experiment—complete with profitability screens, debt filters, and rebalancing protocols—illustrates both the potential and the complexity of this approach. I contrast this with Hendrik Bessembinder's research showing that roughly 4% of stocks drive the vast majority of market returns, underscoring why picking individual small-caps presents particular challenges.For those approaching or in retirement, I offer a counterintuitive perspective on lump-sum cash inflows: sometimes the most efficient approach isn't investing at all, but rather using those funds to cover expenses for several years, potentially reducing tax liability without significantly impacting long-term portfolio growth.Whether you're crafting your retirement strategy, exploring direct indexing, or optimizing your withdrawal approach, this episode delivers practical insights for aligning your investments with your unique financial journey.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Katie, Sean, Glen, Anonymous and Kelly.  We discuss our matching campaign for the Father McKenna Center (rolled out in Episode 426), the BOXX ETF and the Rorschach test it presents, direct indexing, Risk Parity Chronicles, and the real purpose of Financial Independence and how to win at retirement and life. Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterInterview of Wes Gray about BOXX and other tax strategies:  Episode 70: Dr. Wes Gray discusses the unique tax benefits of ETFs and other topics of interest, host Rick Ferri | Bogleheads On Investing PodcastKBWP at Morningstar:  KBWP – Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Ins ETF – ETF Stock Quote | MorningstarRisk Parity Chronicles on YouTube:  Risk Parity Chronicles - YouTubeThe Life of Catherine McAuley:  Catherine McAuleyBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:  Money without purpose is just numbers in an account. Financial independence isn't the finish line—it's the starting point of a more meaningful journey.In this deeply personal episode, Frank Vasquez tackles sophisticated investment strategies while unveiling the philosophical underpinnings of his approach to wealth. He examines the tax-efficient BOXX ETF, explaining how it allows investors in higher tax brackets to potentially convert ordinary income into more favorable long-term capital gains. Drawing on insights from Alpha Architect's Wes Gray, Frank positions this strategy within the evolving landscape of personal finance technology, contrasting innovators against those clinging to outdated viewpoints.The conversation shifts to direct indexing—a strategy where investors replicate indices by purchasing individual securities rather than funds. Frank cuts through the marketing hype, offering practical guidance on when this approach makes sense (primarily for those in higher tax brackets) and when it's simply not worth the complexity. His personal experience with property and casualty insurance companies demonstrates selective implementation without paying unnecessary fees.Most powerfully, Frank shares the story that shaped his retirement philosophy—his aunt Sister Francine of the Sisters of Mercy. This "firebrand and hellraiser" ran schools and soup kitchens, challenged the wealthy to contribute more, and built deep community connections. When she died without money or fame, her funeral filled a cathedral with mourners—the ultimate testament to a life well-lived.What's the purpose of saving all that money if not to create meaningful impact? How might your financial independence serve something greater than account balances? Listen and reconsider what truly constitutes "winning at life."Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Pete, Kevin and Dale.  We discuss Pete's "Berry Pie" portfolio experiments on the testfolio site, the ongoing debate about the size and value factors and why it doesn't matter that much for constructing diversified portfolios due to Shannon's Demon, and some basics on the process for constructing portfolios moving from asset classes to specific ETFs.We also roll out our "Top of the T-Shirt" Matching Campaign to benefit the Father McKenna Center.  Please support the Father McKenna Center by visiting their website and mentioning "Risk Parity Radio" in the dedication box when donating. Your contribution will be matched dollar-for-dollar and help provide meals and services to homeless and hungry people in Washington DC.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPete's Test Portfolios Analysis:  https://testfol.io/?s=cTkuwqvwzMSShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsMeb Faber Interview of Professor Ken French:  Famed Finance Expert Kenneth French Reveals: Most Dangerous Investor FallaciesBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever walked into a dive bar and found unexpected wisdom? That's Risk Parity Radio—a refreshingly honest approach to investing where movie quotes mix with mathematical principles, and portfolio theory comes without the corporate jargon.In this episode, Frank Vasquez launches the "Top of the T-Shirt Campaign," where an anonymous donor will match up to $15,000 in listener contributions to the Father McKenna Center. This small but mighty charity serves thousands of meals to homeless and hungry people in Washington DC with remarkable efficiency, using a $1.5 million budget, donated space, and an army of volunteers to maximize impact.The heart of the episode tackles a fundamental investing misconception—that we include value stocks or small cap funds because they'll outperform. Frank explains that diversification isn't about prediction but about mathematical certainty: "That's Shannon's Demon. If you have two assets with similar long-term performance but they aren't fully correlated, you're better off holding both than either one alone." By splitting stock holdings between growth and value, investors create systematic rebalancing opportunities when these segments diverge—as they dramatically did in 2022, when growth cratered while value remained relatively stable.Listeners get practical portfolio construction wisdom too: start with your goals, select appropriate asset classes, then choose specific funds—not the other way around. Frank emphasizes that ETFs have made mutual funds largely obsolete for new investments, offering better tax efficiency and portability.Weekly portfolio reviews reveal gold's continued dominance (up 28% YTD) while diversified portfolios showed modest gains despite volatile markets. Risk parity approaches demonstrated their resilience, with the Golden Butterfly portfolio up 3.13% year-to-date and 38.12% since inception in 2020.Ready to build a portfolio that doesn't require predicting winners? Want to support a worthy cause while learning? This episode combines financial wisdom with practical generosity—a perfect introduction to the Risk Parity Radio approach.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Andy, El Yama and Paulo.  We discuss a follow up to the question on margin accounts at Interactive Brokers in Episode 424, the use of SCHD fund as a large cap value fund in a risk parity style portfolio, the meaning of "safe" in "safe withdrawal rates" and the current popular obsession with international funds, as well as diversification considerations for using them.  And an upcoming appearance on the "Afford Anything" podcast.  And the famous SCTV parody "The Queen Haters."Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterSCHD Analysis on Morningstar:  SCHD Stock - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | MorningstarBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Dive into the murky waters of investment strategy as Frank tackles listener questions with his signature blend of expertise and irreverent humor. This episode peels back the layers on three critical investing topics that frequently trip up even experienced investors.Frank first dissects the mechanics of margin accounts at Interactive Brokers, clarifying how leverage percentages work differently when withdrawing cash versus purchasing additional assets. With characteristic frankness, he explains why brokers might offer leverage limits up to five times an account's value while emphasizing that such levels represent "way more margin than anyone really needs or would want, unless they truly have a gambling problem."The conversation shifts to dividend ETFs, specifically SCHD, which Frank analyzes not by its label but by its actual characteristics. He reveals how this fund functions effectively as a conservative value play that "sits right on the border between mid-cap and large-cap" with "an even lower average PE ratio than most value funds." This practical approach to fund classification—looking beyond marketing labels to actual investment behavior—exemplifies the podcast's commitment to clear-eyed analysis.Perhaps most valuable is Frank's demolition of several sacred cows in retirement planning. He explains how safe withdrawal rates already incorporate worst-case scenarios, making additional conservative assumptions not just unnecessary but potentially harmful. "When people are talking about 3% or less withdrawal rates, they are really just doing bad forecasting," he argues, characterizing such excessive conservatism as "essentially leaving life on the table by not spending the money when you're alive."The episode culminates in a masterful takedown of the current "fervor" for international stocks. Frank explains how currency fluctuations—not magical mean reversion—drive performance differences between markets, and why holding total market US and international funds provides minimal true diversification. "That is pretty much the least diversified way of using international funds against US funds," he notes, before offering practical alternatives for constructing a genuinely diversified portfolio across meaningful factors.Want to support the show? Consider donating to the Father McKenna Center, which helps homeless people in Washington DC. Email your questions to [email protected] or visit riskparityradio.com.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Yangon, The Value Stock Geek, and Graham.  We discuss the ins and outs of margin accounts at Interactive Brokers, some annoyances with gold ETFs and 1099s, and BTAL vs. treasury bonds.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTyler On The Security Analysis Podcast:  Tyler (@PortfolioCharts): The Amazing Power of Uncorrelated AssetsAnalysis Of BTAL vs. SPY vs. TLT With Correlations:  testfol.io/analysis?s=jAQO2TjzAPaper Re Stock Market Volatility And Treasury Bonds (C. Moise):  Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRNBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Diving deep into the financial weeds, Frank tackles several practical questions that impact do-it-yourself investors managing their own portfolios. What begins as a detailed exploration of Interactive Brokers' margin loan program reveals valuable insights about using portfolio assets as collateral, the tax deductibility of margin interest, and how to monitor your account to avoid margin calls.The conversation shifts to an unexpected tax headache many gold ETF investors face: those annoying tiny distributions that clutter 1099 forms while providing minimal value. Frank compares how different brokerages handle these transactions, offering practical advice for simplifying your tax reporting experience. For those weary of manually entering dozens of nickel-and-dime transactions each tax season, this segment provides welcome relief.Perhaps most valuable is Frank's thoughtful analysis of asset correlations and why treasury bonds remain irreplaceable in risk parity portfolios despite recent correlation changes. "Correlations are not magical and they're not random," Frank explains, dismissing the notion that we've entered a "new paradigm" where traditional diversification no longer works. He articulates why correlation changes are tied to macroeconomic conditions and why treasury bonds still serve as essential recession insurance that alternatives like BTAL cannot replace.The weekly portfolio review brings welcome news as most sample portfolios show positive performance, with gold continuing its strong 2024 despite recent pullbacks. Small cap value remains the year's underperformer, while the diverse range of portfolio strategies demonstrates how risk parity principles can adapt to different investor needs.Whether you're considering margin loans, puzzling over gold ETF tax statements, or questioning the role of treasury bonds in today's market environment, this episode delivers practical wisdom for navigating these complex investment waters. Frank's straightforward approach strips away the mystique surrounding these topics, empowering listeners to make more informed decisions with their portfolios.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Jeff and Peter.  We discuss a new risk parity ETF, ALLW, a social security claiming question and considerations, and how a listener has been misled regarding so-called dividend investing by misinterpreting a misleading source.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterALLW Fund Main Page:   ALLW: SPDR® Bridgewater® All Weather® ETFOpen Social Security:  Open Social Security: Free, Open-Source Social Security CalculatorHartford Funds Dividend Fund Page:  The Power of Dividends: Past, Present, and FutureBen Felix Dividend Video:  The Irrelevance of DividendsBen Felix Dividend Video #2:  The Relevance of Dividend IrrelevanceBreathless Unedited AI-Bot summaryFinancial misconceptions can cost you dearly. This eye-opening episode tackles three critical investment topics that challenge conventional wisdom and may transform how you approach your portfolio.When State Street and Bridgewater Associates launched their All Weather ETF (ALLW), it promised the stability of risk parity with the pedigree of Ray Dalio himself. We dissect this new offering—examining its 175% leverage, complex asset allocation, and 0.85% expense ratio—to determine whether it delivers on its promises or falls into the same traps as similar products like RPAR and UPAR. For investors approaching retirement, understanding these nuances could be the difference between confidence and confusion in the decumulation phase.Delaying Social Security benefits remains one of retirement planning's most debated decisions. We cut through the noise of oversimplified break-even calculators to explore what truly matters: appropriate risk-free rate calculations, the value of guaranteed income streams, and perhaps most importantly, how your family's longevity history should influence your claiming strategy. For married couples, the analysis becomes even more critical as spousal benefits create powerful optimization opportunities that generic calculators often miss.The episode concludes by dispelling one of investing's most persistent myths: the magical power of dividends. When Hartford Research noted that "85% of the S&P 500's return came from reinvested dividends and compounding," many investors misinterpreted this to mean dividends themselves were responsible for these returns. We reveal how this fundamental misunderstanding leads investors astray, explain why dividend payments offer no advantage in today's zero-commission environment, and demonstrate why creating your own "dividend" through strategic selling provides superior tax control.Whether you're building wealth or planning your withdrawal strategy, these insights will help you see beyond marketing claims to make decisions based on financial reality rather than comforting illusions. Listen now to align your investment approach with actual market mechanics instead of persistent financial folklore.Have a question about risk parity investing or portfolio construction? Email [email protected] or visit riskparityradio.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Joe and Jack.  We discuss a commodities fund, BCI, some more cowbell, and Fidelity's share lending program.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterBCI vs. PDBC vs. COM vs. DBMFX:  testfol.io/analysis?s=3NIFkA7mNB9Small Cap Value vs. S&P 500 In 21st Century:  testfol.io/analysis?s=gkqbgk7mzkaComparison Between Small Cap Value And Overall Market With Histogram:  Backtest Portfolio Asset Class AllocationBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Looking for that perfect balance between return potential and downside protection? This episode delivers practical insights for DIY investors navigating today's complex markets.We dive deep into commodity ETFs as listener Ed asks about PDBC versus BCI for his portfolio. The comparison reveals surprising differences in expense ratios, management approaches, and tracking errors that could significantly impact your returns over time. Frank shares why he's personally shifted away from dedicated commodity funds toward managed futures for inflation protection.The conversation then turns to small cap value investing, but with a crucial twist that many investors miss. Rather than focusing solely on whether small cap value will outperform the broader market, Frank emphasizes its diversification benefits during market downturns. The 2022 market crash provides a perfect case study: while growth stocks plummeted 30-50%, value stocks ranged from -10% to +10%, creating powerful rebalancing opportunities that can enhance long-term performance.We also examine Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending Program, which allows investors to earn additional income by lending their securities. While the potential return seems modest (around 0.625% annually), we consider the counterparty risks and regulatory protections you might sacrifice.The episode concludes with our weekly portfolio reviews revealing fascinating performance patterns in 2024. Gold continues to shine with a remarkable 26.81% year-to-date gain while the broader market struggles. This performance disparity highlights why thoughtful asset allocation matters more than ever for investors seeking to build truly resilient portfolios.Whether you're managing a multi-million dollar portfolio or just starting your investment journey, these insights will help you navigate market volatility with greater confidence and clarity.What's your approach to balancing growth and value in your equity allocation? Have you considered how different assets might interact during the next market downturn?Support the show