Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.
In this episode, Justin interviews Roger Spitz on a variety of ERM and futurist topics, including his career path and the thought leadership he provides today. They discuss unpredictability, uncertainty, and why the future is not clearly seen. They discuss the importance of agility and how improv prepares for it.
Roger shares his thoughts on how ERM practitioners can be ready for the unknown.
Listen for Roger's thoughts on antifragility, being anticipatory, and agility.
Key Takeaways:
[:01] About RIMS and RIMScast.
[:16] About this episode of RIMScast. We will be joined by Roger Spitz, Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute, President of Techistential, and the opening keynote speaker for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026, which will be held November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio.
[:48] Before we get to our interview…
[:50] Webinars: On Nov. 5th, Riskonnect returns to deliver the session "Signal Over Noise: Smarter Risk Analytics."
[:59] Origami Risk will return on December 10th to present "Managing Insurance Programs at Scale: What Complex Portfolios Require." This session was rescheduled from October, and if you were registered for that one, you are automatically registered for the new date in December.
[1:15] We will close out the year with two webinars from the RIMS Advocacy and External Affairs Committees. On November 10th, we will host a session about the "Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and Program: an update on Federal Developments."
[1:31] On December 3rd, we've got "Third-Party Litigation Financing: What Nuclear and Other Verdicts Mean for the Industry and Your Bottom Line." Find all webinars at RIMS.org/webinars.
[1:41] I've got a link on this episode's show notes to the virtual workshops for the RIMS-CRMP.
[1:47] Special announcement: On December 3rd and 4th, 2026, from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., you can prepare for the RIMS-CRMP exam with the RIMS 2026 President, Manny Padilla, at St. John's University at 101 Astor Place in New York City.
[2:04] The exam application fee is included if you register for this prep course. Visit RIMS.org/Certification and the link on this episode's show notes.
[2:14] The Q3 Edition of RIMS Risk Management Magazine is now available at RMMagazine.com. Check it out!
[2:21] RIMS on YouTube! RIMS is back on YouTube. Our handle is @RIMSOfficialChannel. We've got plenty of videos there, including RIMScast, RIMScast Canada video podcasts, and other informative and entertaining content from RIMS. Subscribe to the channel today!
[2:39] On with the Show! The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held on November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. Learn more and register at RIMS.org/ERM2026. Our guest today will be kicking things off at the conference.
[2:58] He is Roger Spitz, the Chair of The Disruptive Futures Institute and the President of Techistential. He joins us today to provide a preview of his keynote, "Black Swans and Golden Geese: Risks and Returns in the Era of Unpredictability." I'm stoked, and I want to get right to it!
[3:18] Interview: Roger Spitz, Welcome to RIMScast!
[3:44] Roger says he's probably the only futurist with a background in M&A. He started as a chartered accountant (ACA) in the UK and moved into investment banking. He was Global Head of M&A for BNP Paribas, advising boards, CEOs, and investors on acquisitions and divestments.
[4:19] Roger was based in London. In 2017, the CEO asked him to rebuild the M&A Tech practice in San Francisco. He promised himself when he came here that he would go down the rabbit hole of change.
[4:34] Roger did a lot of microcourses on complexity systems, foresight, even stand-up comedy, and all kinds of things, looking at change from different vantage points. He felt futures was an interesting umbrella for that.
[4:54] Roger felt that the way even the most sophisticated, well-paid business leaders think about the world as a linear, predictable, stable, controllable set of assumptions was not only wrong, but that the cost of relying on those assumptions would increase.
[5:12] Roger says, after a few years, he decided to leave investment banking and spend full-time thinking about strategic foresight. He wrote a book. He set up a practice, Disruptive Futures Institute. At the time, it was esoteric to think about unpredictability, but today he's pretty busy.
[5:47] Roger says that amongst the microcourses he took, one vantage point for understanding change was stand-up comedy, especially improv. He did several courses on improv to think about the surprise element and change from that perspective. It's how he got to where he is.
[6:43] Justin says he did stand-up as well. He understands the rush of it, but there is spontaneity to it. He didn't do improv as a class, but he did stand-up for a year in Manhattan. In stand-up, you learn a lot about yourself and what you can endure. It's just you and the audience.
[7:22] Roger says he learned about himself and his confidence. He also learned what features cause surprise, but also that with the right tools, mindset, and ways of seeing the world, there's nothing wrong with surprise and unpredictability. You can take it and run with it. It's "yes, and."
[7:48] Roger says if you don't have that toolkit or operating system, improv might feel a little bit uncomfortable or surprising. Roger took improv not only to learn about himself, but also to learn what toolkits are effective in these kinds of environments that are more prone to surprise.
[8:40] Roger says, once you have a certain way of seeing the world, or mindset, it's in you. You're not going to unsee it or no longer think of "yes, and," or other reflexes. It's intuitive. Some exposure to improv is a very useful tool.
[9:08] Justin mentions SNL UK. Roger says he is South African, the home of Trevor Noah, but spent more than 20 years in the UK.
[9:51] Justin mentions we will see Roger on November 19th, kicking things off for us in Columbus, Ohio, for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026. The keynote is titled "Black Swans and Golden Geese: Risks and Returns in the Era of Unpredictability."
[10:07] Justin asks: How should risk professionals rethink the traditional relationship between risk and return when organizations are operating in conditions of deep uncertainty?
[10:22] Roger mentions two aspects: One is how one thinks about deep uncertainty, and two is what that means.
[10:37] Roger starts with the foundations. The 100-year-old distinction between risk and uncertainty is helpful for environments which are relatively stable and predictable. You can get a sense of the probability of risk. Uncertainty is not as well understood.
[11:26] Roger says the World Uncertainty Index is through the roof since the 1900s. Uncertainty is conflated with other things and is not always clearly understood. Conventional uncertainty is that you know the possible outcomes; you're just not sure about the "probabilization."
[11:49] Roger continues: Who will win the elections? Will there be a recession? You know the question. There's an answer. It's pretty straightforward.
[12:01] In deep uncertainty, you don't know the potential outcomes. You don't know the probabilities. You can't put a hierarchy on them, or if you did, they wouldn't necessarily be in agreement. You're not taking into account how these possible outcomes might interact.
[12:27] Roger says you're not taking into account the next-order implications, nor is there agreement or alignment on how you might mitigate them or whether they even exist.
[12:39] What are the exact implications- not just geopolitical, but technology, geofinance, societal- if China becomes the number one in the world in a dominant way, which is very possible?
[12:54] What happens with longevity? What is longevity? Is it 200 years? No longer diseases? No longer aging? What happens if you work and live in space? What happens with singularity diversity if it happens? Once you put all that together, think about how they might interact.
[13:10] Roger says that's deeply uncertain. Therefore, we wrote a detailed paper with the Head of Foresight of AXA on the topic on Risk.Net. We're looking at something more akin to unpredictability.
[13:32] Roger says unpredictability is not the same as uncertainty. If you take uncertainty in an environment that is non-linear, emergent, with unknown unknowns, you need trial and error, playbooks, predict-and-act modeling; you don't have a known answer.
[14:05] That is very different from the predict-and-act frameworks and modeling that a lot of the risk and return industry relies on. Not only is unpredictability a key feature of that, but the outcomes can be disproportionate, both for risk and returns.
[14:31] Putting all that together, Roger says the most important thing is that you need to shift the mindset from a risk "probabilization" or return calculation to outcomes. What are the potential outcomes in terms of magnitude?
[14:48] How do we think about what can lead to either breakdown or breakthroughs? What are the features that might make these outcomes potentially very sizable and that might be breakdowns or breakthroughs?
[15:07] That's not the same as conventional predict-and-act modeling. It's not the same as scenario analysis, where you ask "what if something" and you have two edge cases.
[15:19] Roger says my thesis is that what we're talking about is a constant environment, not a few edge cases or exceptions you need to think about the "what if" for. You don't really know. It's a constant. It's systemic. And therefore, it's business as usual, as opposed to an edge case.
[15:40] A Quick Break! Many fantastic RIMS events are coming up in 2026 and 2027. The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held in Columbus, Ohio on November 19th and 20th. Our guest today, Roger Spitz, is the keynote. We can't wait to see you there!
[15:55] Visit RIMS.org/ERM2026 to register.
[15:59] We're already looking to RISKWORLD 2027, which will be held over four days in New Orleans, Louisiana, from April 18th through the 21st. Member-only registration will open on November 4th, and general registration will open on December 2nd.
[16:18] Get first access to the hotel block! Hotel reservations open on October 28th, ahead of public registration. Sitting this out is the real risk. The registration link is in this episode's show notes.
[16:31] Let's Return to Our Interview with ERM Conference 2026 Keynote Roger Spitz!
[16:39] Justin asks about Roger's Triple-A Framework: Anti-fragile, Anticipatory, and Agility.
[17:00] Roger says we're in environments that are predominantly unpredictable, where rare is no longer rare and unprecedented is happening too often. We're saying it's nonlinear, so there can be extreme or very significant outcomes, both positive and negative. It's not necessarily a risk.
[17:28] Roger says that predict-and-act has limitations. What do you do about it?
[17:34] Roger says it means, first of all, you don't want to rely too much on your predictive powers, what comes out of the model. It's unpredictable. You need environments that are very resilient.
[18:15] The first A, Antifragility, borrowed from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is a form of resilience. Resilience is like a rubber band: you can punch it around; it doesn't change shape; it doesn't break, but it hasn't necessarily changed or improved.
[18:33] Antifragility is resilience-plus. Not only will it be resilient and robust, but it actually benefits from shocks. Have foundations that are anti-fragile, or resilience-plus.
[18:51] The second A of Triple-A is to be Anticipatory. That doesn't mean in a predictive way, but more in a scenario way. Think: What if this continued? What are the next-order implications? How are things that may seem unrelated connected?
[19:09] Roger says, let's take interest rates. Yellen was the first to admit, of the Central Banks, everybody was in the same boat. She basically didn't realize that interest rates would be the highest they had been for half a century, thought they could control it, and they couldn't.
[19:21] It's the cost of relying upon an assumption. They weren't anticipatory. They relied on what came out of the model. The problem is when you make assumptions, to the exclusion of anything else.
[19:44] Being anticipatory is not trying to make a bet on a specific outcome. It's saying we need different scenarios and possibilities to build our muscle for managing surprise, not because we believe that one of those scenarios will materialize.
[20:02] Continuing with interest rates as an analogy, you see that the Fed from Cleveland, a few years ago, after realizing how impossible it is to predict these things, started thinking more in terms of scenarios than relying on specific outcomes.
[20:21] Kevin Warsh, the current Fed Chairman, is reluctant to give the markets an outlook.
[20:36] This idea of being anticipatory is moving away from prediction but still thinking of what may arise next. What different possibilities might emerge, and how best to prepare for them?
[20:49] You have an anti-fragile foundation, you're being anticipatory, and then you need to live in the here and now, every day, where surprises happen. The decision windows are closing. Things happen all the time. They can happen fast.
[21:08] The third A is Agility: the agility to emerge with decisions in the here and now, without necessarily having a playbook, or right answer, or something that's knowable.
[21:20] Justin comments that hearkens back to the improv discussed earlier. Roger agrees 100%.
[21:30] Roger says a lot of people are familiar with elements of these three "A"s. Whatever you call them, it's the fundamentals. They treat them as "either-or"s.
[21:43] Even in the Futures and Foresight field, you have people who say scenarios are useless; you don't know the future; it's too far away. Everything is emergent. Or people say you rely on scenarios, but you live in the here-and-now, and there's a disconnect.
[21:57] Roger says the Triple-A Framework is important because it is the reflexes of improv, and you need that agility. It's not to the exclusion of thinking about the longer term and what might happen in the different scenarios because you're preparing a broader subset of eventualities.
[22:21] When emergencies happen for which you need that improv toolkit, that subset is smaller because you have a resilient foundation and you've thought about a few things beforehand that may happen.
[22:32] Justin says, "Some of our Strategic and Enterprise Risk Management Council members have written or spoken on scenario planning and strategic risk management in this context. It sounds like your ideas are going to resonate with them. And they may agree or disagree."
[22:51] Justin says that part remains to be seen until November 19th at the RIMS ERM Conference 2026. You're bringing concepts that they're already familiar with to the table and presenting them with a twist, which I think will be fascinating to hear.
[23:05] One More Quick Break! RIMS, The Foundation for Risk Management™, is dedicated to shaping the future of the profession. By making a contribution, you are strengthening the global risk management community and investing in the future of the industry.
[23:24] The Foundation also supports the Spencer Educational Foundation but has a different mission. The Foundation focuses on providing opportunities for those professionals who have already decided to enter risk management and are just getting started.
[23:39] You can learn more about the Foundation by visiting www.RIMS.org/FRM.
While you're there, be sure to check out information about the Susan Meltzer Scholarship Fund, which was established to honor Ms. Meltzer, who was RIMS President in 1999 and 2000.
[23:57] Susan Meltzer was a cherished RIMS President and contributed so much to RIMS and the greater risk community. Learn more at RIMS.org/FRM.
[23:33] Let's Return to Our Interview with RIMS ERM Conference 2026 Keynote Roger Spitz!
[24:34] Justin asks about Artificial Intelligence, and where Roger sees AI improving risk management. Roger says it's important to know: where does AI sit in the value chain of decision-making? Where can it be helpful or not helpful?
[25:03] Roger says AI is very good at pattern recognition at scale. It's probabilistic. It's everything we know. Linear environments, with known unknowns, where you can rely on experts and where there's a range of answers, are predictable environments that are AI's sweet spot.
[25:54] Roger says those environments are what we call complicated.
[26:02] Roger says a lot of environments are complex in that they are nonlinear, asymmetric, there may not be a range of right answers at that time, they are emergent, and they are trial and error.
[26:21] Complicated environments are like a puzzle. The more pieces you have to the puzzle, you know the answer. You look at the cover, done. You have your one-trillion-piece puzzle for your AI.
[26:30] Complex environments are like a mystery. They're dynamic. Drivers that are constantly in flux, interacting, cascading, and creating different things. They are not as predictable. AI is very helpful in environments that display features of predictability.
[27:02] Roger says even AI can't predict the unpredictable. It's important to have that distinction in mind. Some of our most complex societal challenges, how the different elements of deep uncertainty interact; not all of them are knowable at this stage.
[27:25] Roger says that when you put all those together, then AI will not do a better job than humans because they are probabilistic and there's no data on the future.
[27:42] Roger says the benefit of AI for decision-making is an environment that displays that degree of predictability, where data helps.
[27:49] The danger of delegating decision-making to machines in complex environments, in which they don't do a better job than humans, is that humans are de-skilling, by virtue of delegating to machines. You're becoming less versatile in practicing your critical thinking, judgment, etc.
[28:09] Roger says, as machines are becoming more human-like, the existential risk is that humans are becoming more machine-like. That's how Roger would frame whether AI is relevant or not.
[28:24] Justin says that when he tried to help her daughter with an answer to a Social Studies question, and he wrote it out, she rejected it because she said it looked like AI wrote it. He wasn't trying to replicate AI.
[29:10] Justin comments on interconnectedness in enterprise risk management. This is also something that the SERMC has written on. It's something our members grapple with every day. Small organization or large, one thing will affect the next.
[29:40] Justin asks, when you have interconnected risks, from geopolitical instability, to cyber, to climate, to supply chain, how should risk professionals be approaching them now?
[29:54] Roger thinks it's helpful to understand the dimensions of the systemic disruption or metaruption. Metaruptions are provocations to metatrends.
[30:11] Roger says that with trends, you're relying on the past, you're not taking the next-order implications, and you're not thinking about how they interact, etc. Roger thinks uncertainty is compounding, so we need to think about the dimensions of metaruptions.
[30:28] Why is it compounding? What do you do about it? That's linked to why it's compounding. The features or dimensions of metaruptions are: Simultaneous multi-domains that are interacting and that are systemic and entangled, causing deep uncertainty or unpredictability.
[31:04] The shape is nonlinear. Besides the disproportionate input-output equation, it is also threshold-driven. You can have tipping points and irreversibility. That's important when thinking about climate, AI, and technology.
[31:20] It's not the same saying that something is exponential, as to having a tipping point. Tipping points can work both ways, good ideas or not.
[31:34] Roger says that irreversibility is where the anticipatory comes in. Even if things are unpredictable, you need to think about them.
[31:43] Roger says the conditions are entanglement-systemic; the shape is nonlinear. Roger speaks of the propagation of change. You have real-time contagion and an inverse relationship between interdependence and how much slack there is.
[32:02] You have tight coupling, with dense dependencies, thin buffers, limited redundancy, and single points of failure that can cascade. The pace is very fast. It's accelerating. That pace means compressed decision times.
[32:25] The outcomes are not just going to happen. They're not deterministic. They partly depend on how you see the world, how you prepare, and how you respond. What do you do about this? You change how you see the world, how you prepare, and how you respond.
[32:46] Roger shares an example. You might have seen in France that there was refrigeration for hundreds of supermarkets. Hackers got in, changed the thermostats to 50 Celsius, and there were tens and tens of millions of dollars in damages to frozen goods from it, across hundreds of stores.
[33:27] This example happened just a few days ago. It got global coverage because it has very significant food security implications. It's happening more and more, but why? It's linked to AI. Previously, doing this kind of damage would be a needle in a haystack; with AI, it's like radar.
[33:57] It's an attractor for single points of failure. You can use AI to find a single point of failure in utilities, healthcare, etc. In this case, it was certain control systems that set the refrigeration temperature. It could be much more significant and much more systemic. That is easy to find.
[34:16] Those attractors for single points of failure have tight coupling, no redundancy, no buffers, and no slack. Roger says the answer is to see the world and understand how serious single points of failure are. Why you need to be resilient is to avoid single points of failure.
[34:51] That's where the resilience-plus of antifragility comes in. You need to be anticipatory and think about the next-order implications. What could happen if you could no longer move water from the mountains in California to L.A.? It would take three weeks to run out of water.
[35:30] Roger says you need resilience in systems because it's so easy to find single points of failure, vulnerabilities, and weaknesses. Because they're non-linear and tight-coupling, they can cascade quickly and with significant impact.
[35:47] You need to be anticipatory in terms of what that means, and you need the agility to react as they happen.
[35:54] Unless people see the world differently with these different dynamics, prepare differently in terms of what it means, and then respond with agility for when things happen, there is more and more scope for challenges and opportunities with these kinds of dynamics.
[36:17] Justin asks if all futurists think this way. Roger says, among the general public, and even some futurists, a lot of people still feel like they are able to predict the future and rely on a lot of trends and forecasts. If anyone tells you they can predict the future, run a million miles away!
[36:47] Roger would say that most professionally trained, serious futurists would think in terms of dimensions, being systemic, and other things.
[36:56] Roger's contribution is that he has focused a lot on considering our environment to be structurally unpredictable, which has ramifications that go beyond certain things we might use as business as usual.
[37:16] Also, the Triple-A in its own right brings in a number of things that are not just futuristic thinking or strategic foresight. Antifragility or resilience is not necessarily a foresight tool. Agility is not necessarily a foresight tool, which is more about long-term thinking scenarios.
[37:36] Roger wrote a paper on this: When the future is today, with the features we're talking about, we need to reframe the tidy dichotomies of futurists, which are putting things cleanly in a box, separating the future from the present, and the likely from the less likely.
[37:54] Some of these tidy dichotomies that the futurist field relies on also have their own provocations.
[38:03] Justin reminds listeners that Roger will be kicking off the RIMS ERM Conference on November 19th at 9:00 a.m., and that it goes until 10:15. Roger says there will be at least 15 minutes for a Q&A slot in a fun, interactive way.
[38:31] Roger is otherwise always contactable for anyone who attends. There are further ways to engage over time.
[38:41] Special thanks again to Roger Spitz for joining us here on RIMScast.
[38:45] A link to DisruptiveFutures.org is in this episode's show notes, as is a link to his Risk.net paper, "The Future of Risk and Insurability in the Era of Systemic Disruption, Unpredictability, and Artificial Intelligence."
[39:01] Of course, we look forward to his Keynote at the RIMS ERM Conference 2026. Learn more and register now at RIMS.org/ERM2026.
[39:13] Plug Time! Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email [email protected] for more information.
[39:30] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more.
[39:47] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management.
[40:01] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. Please remember to subscribe to RIMScast on your favorite podcasting app. You can email us at [email protected].
[40:13] Practice good risk management, stay safe, and thank you again for your continued support!
Links:
RIMS ERM Conference 2026 | November 19‒20 in Columbus, Ohio | Registration Now Open! | www.rims.org/ERM2026
RIMScast Canada — Episodes Now Live — Look for coverage of RIMS Canada 2026!
The Strategic and Enterprise Risk Center
RIMS, the Foundation for Risk Management
Spencer Educational Foundation — Scholarships and Grants | Open Calls and Timelines.
RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP) | Insights Video Series Featuring Joe Milan!
RIMS Diversity Equity Inclusion Council
RIMS Risk Management magazine | Contribute | Q3 2026 Issue Now Available
Sponsor RIMScast — [email protected]
"The Future of Risk and Insurability In The Era of Systemic Disruption, Unpredictability and Artificial Intelligence", co-authored by Roger Spitz
Upcoming RIMS-CRMP Workshops:
Live Workshop, Led by RIMS President Manny Padilla | Dec. 3‒4, 2026 | St. John's University, NY
Full RIMS-CRMP Prep Course Schedule
See the full calendar of RIMS Virtual Workshops
Upcoming RIMS Webinars:
"Signal Over Noise: Smarter Risk Analytics" | Sponsored by Riskonnect | Nov. 5, 2026
"RIMS Advocacy Presents: Terrorism Risk Insurance Act and Program: An Update on Federal Developments" | Nov. 10, 2026
"Managing Insurance Programs at Scale: What Complex Risk Portfolios Require" | Sponsored by Origami Risk | Dec. 10, 2026
Related RIMScast Episodes:
"Emerging Risks and AMRAE's RMIS Panorama 2026 with François Beaume"
"AI and the Future of Risk with Dan Chuparkoff" (ERM 2025 Keynote)
"The Human Side of Risk with Jerome Mayne"
"Solving Wicked Problems with Dr. Gav Schneider"
Sponsored RIMScast Episodes:
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"The ART of Risk: Rethinking Risk Through Insight, Design, and Innovation" | Sponsored by Alliant
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"Change Management: AI's Role in Loss Control and Property Insurance" | Sponsored by Global Risk Consultants, a TÜV SÜD Company
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"Understanding Third-Party Litigation Funding" | Sponsored by Zurich
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RIMS Publications, Content, and Links:
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About our guest:
Roger Spitz, Chair, Disruptive Futures Institute; President, Techistential
RIMS 2026 ERM Conference Keynote
Production and engineering provided by Podfly.
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