Haley Stevens caps a bizarre midterm cycle

Days before the midterms and the vibes are feeling off. The polls point to a Democratic wave, but neither party seems to believe them. Plus, the final days of campaigning have taken a bizarre turn with Rep. Haley Stevens making a surprise endorsement for Mike Rogers.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

With Election Day days away, Republican strategist T.W. Arrighi and Democratic strategist Lis Smith join Dasha to break down what’s driving a surprisingly competitive midterm map. They discuss the central role of affordability, how candidates are navigating voter frustration with the status quo, and the risks and rewards of tying campaigns to President Trump. The conversations also look beyond Tuesday: What should each party learn from the results, and what could this cycle signal about the fight for the parties’ futures? Watch POLITICO Elections Live at POLITICO.com or the POLITICO app, starting at 9pm ET on Tuesday. Have thoughts for The Conversation? Text or leave us a voicemail at 202-643-1536.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul joins POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin over breakfast in New York City for a wide-ranging conversation about governing in 2026. She discusses working with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, her conversations with President Donald Trump over ICE operations and why she says data centers should bring their own power.  Hochul also weighs in on Israeli leadership and the possibility of a Palestinian state, the future of the Democratic Party and its 2028 presidential field, and her hopes for the Buffalo Bills. 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is eyeing a big reelection win. But the stakes for one of Democrats’ most closely watched rising stars go well beyond Tuesday. Then the other stories animating Washington: Donald Trump is struggling to stay on message in the final midterms stretch, new polls raise questions about the possibility of a Democratic Senate sweep and Ken Paxton cancels a campaign rally, giving Gov. Gavin Newsom an opening to stir the pot. Plus, a signature 200-second interview with former Michigan state lawmaker Mari Manoogian.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

Leaders of the New Democrat Coalition are confident they'll deliver a Democratic House majority. They have no intention of letting a handful of insurgent newcomers call the shots. Then the other stories animating Washington: Operatives aligned with Mary Peltola reportedly recruited a second Dan Sullivan, Flávio Bolsonaro arrives stateside and Twitch streamer Hasan Piker hits Scott Jennings with a $72.5 million defamation lawsuit.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been one of Republicans' favorite political targets. But with days until the midterms, some Republicans are acknowledging that her brand of economic populism might actually be popular. Then the other stories animating Washington: Secretary of State Marco Rubio makes a rare appearance on the campaign trail with Trump and what Israel's election could mean for the US.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

Republicans have a big cash advantage heading into the midterms, but much of that money comes from a handful of megadonors, including Elon Musk. Meanwhile Donald Trump remains the party's most powerful fundraising magnet. What happens to the GOP's money machine when Trump is no longer in the White House? Then the other stories animating Washington: Sen. Ruben Gallego is making a last-minute pitch to Latino voters in some of the most competitive races and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul weighs in on AOC's political future.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

Democrats have spent over $20 million dollars on Epstein-related ads. Will it be enough to flip the Senate? Then the other stories animating Washington: President Trump boasts about making a fortune on oil while Americans pay more at the pump, Rep. Haley Stevens offers a tepid endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed and Barack Obama delivers a Cheesecake Factory-sized insult to Trump.  For more news and analysis, subscribe to the Playbook newsletter: politico.com/playbook 

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon joins Dasha for a wide-ranging conversation about her historic campaign and the Democratic Party’s future. Nixon had sharp words for her own party, arguing that Democrats have taken Black voters for granted and the party needs to have a “long conversation” about the state of Black voters in the party, or else it will continue to ‘hemorrhage’ voters.  Nixon also weighs in on why she joined the Democratic Socialists of America, whether she considers Israel an ally, and whether she would support Chuck Schumer for Senate leader. Have thoughts for the show? Text or leave us a voicemail at 202-643-1536.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) joins POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin at a Charlotte diner for a candid conversation about his new book, his decision to leave the Senate and the future of the Republican Party.     Tillis reflects on his votes to confirm President Trump’s Cabinet nominees, argues that the president’s advisers should be replaced and says Republicans need to show more independence from Trump. He also predicts the party could take a “whoop-ass” in November and explains why he thinks Trump’s would-be successors can’t simply imitate him.     Plus, country ham, biscuits and grits at the Carolina Family Restaurant.