How Prediction Markets are Colliding With California and National Politics

In the race for California governor, Democratic frontrunner Xavier Becerra faces allegations that he failed to protect migrant children when he served as health and human services secretary under the Biden administration. But are those attacks fair? Marisa is joined by the New York Times reporter Hannah Dreier, who won a Pulitzer Prize for her 2023 investigation into what was happening to the huge influx of unaccompanied migrant children pouring into the U.S. She found that the federal government was not keeping tabs on these minors after they were released to adult sponsors. Most of them, desperate to send money home and pay off sponsors, took illegal jobs that were often punishing and dangerous. Join us for a town hall at KQED with Tom Steyer, a top Democrat in the race for governor. Steyer will be talking with KQED’s Guy Marzorati and taking audience questions on Tuesday, May 26 at 6:00pm at KQED headquarters in San Francisco. You can register for the event at KQED.org/events. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With the June primary now just 18 days away, the California governor’s race has been completely transformed, reshaped by scandal, rapidly changing poll numbers and bruising debates. Marisa and Guy sit down with Democratic political consultant Addisu Demissie, who worked on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s successful 2018 gubernatorial campaign. They size up the remaining field and discuss how the candidates are performing on the debate stage, in polls and in voters’ eyes. For more information on the races and ballot measures in California’s June 2 primary election, check out KQED’s Voter Guide. Join us for a town hall at KQED with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a top Republican in the race for governor. Bianco will be talking with KQED’s Marisa Lagos and taking audience questions on Monday, May 18 at 7:00pm at KQED headquarters in San Francisco. You can register for the event at KQED.org/events. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled his eighth and final budget proposal today, with a possible presidential bid on the horizon and a crowded field of candidates jockeying to succeed him. His proposal is fully balanced, seeking to offset significant federal spending cuts, but does not introduce major new spending. Marisa and Guy are joined by KFF Health News senior correspondent Angela Hart to unpack the details of Newsom’s plan and what it signals about his priorities in his last stretch as governor.  Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

California is in the grip of a home insurance crisis. Climate change, wildfires and inflation are driving costs through the roof, major insurers have fled the state or dropped coverage and the state's last-resort FAIR plan has drawn plenty of criticisms — all while companies push for even higher rates. Voters are about to elect a new insurance commissioner to oversee it all. Scott and KQED science reporter Danielle Venton look at what's driving the crisis and how candidates say they'd fix it. For more information on the races and ballot measures in California’s June 2 primary election, check out KQED’s Voter Guide. Join us for a town hall at KQED with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a top Republican in the race for governor. Bianco will be talking with KQED's Marisa Lagos and taking audience questions on Monday, May 18 at 7:00pm at KQED headquarters in San Francisco. You can register for the event at KQED.org/events. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter is aiming to make history as the first woman elected governor of California. She's known for flipping a House seat blue in 2018 and for grilling CEOs with her signature whiteboard. After leaving Congress to run for the U.S. Senate in 2024 and losing, Porter is back on the campaign trail, leaning into her identity as a single mom in a minivan who's focused on the affordability of things like housing, childcare, groceries and healthcare. She took questions from a live audience at KQED's town hall gathering earlier this week. For more information on the races and ballot measures in California’s June 2 primary election, check out KQED’s Voter Guide. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ballots have arrived and voters are now weighing their options in the races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor. After two spirited and fiery debates this week, the gubernatorial candidates have given voters no shortage of material to think about as they decide who will replace Governor Gavin Newsom. Scott, Marisa and Guy discuss how the Democratic and Republican contenders are making their case to voters. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, the three leading mayoral candidates faced off in their first televised debate this week. The field includes embattled incumbent Karen Bass, Republican reality TV star Spencer Pratt who lost his home in the Palisades fire and progressive L.A. City Council member Nithya Raman. For more information on the races and ballot measures in California’s June 2 primary election, check out KQED’s Voter Guide. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

California will once again play a big role in determining which party controls the U.S. Congress next year. That’s in part because of the mid-decade redistricting battle that President Trump set off last summer, but it’s also tied to a recent Supreme Court ruling that has prompted several Southern states to redraw their maps even after some voters have cast their ballots.  Marisa and Scott sit down with Guy to discuss how the Democratic Party’s internal debates over generational change are shaping key congressional races.  Then they’re joined by Erin Covey, editor of the Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives, to survey the national landscape and take a closer look at the high stakes districts back here in California. For more information on the races and ballot measures in California’s June 2 primary election, check out KQED’s Voter Guide.   Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Supreme Court last week dealt a major blow to the Voting Rights Act, the 1965 landmark law long celebrated as the crown jewel of the civil rights era. In a 6-3 ruling along ideological lines, the conservative majority dismantled the remaining protections guaranteeing the equal opportunity for fair representation. Scott and Marisa discuss what the decision means for 2026 elections and beyond with Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Washington office of the Brennan Center for Justice. Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ballots for California’s June primary hit mailboxes next week, yet the governor’s race remains up for grabs. After a chaotic, combative governor debate this week, Marisa and Guy sit down with New York Times reporter Laurel Rosenhall to analyze the state of the race.  Then, they turn to the proposed billionaire tax measure that’s one step closer to appearing on California’s fall ballot and the multiple attempts by billionaires to block that initiative.  Check out ⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Prediction markets have exploded in recent years, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing people to put real money on everything from sports outcomes to election results to armed conflicts overseas. Marisa, Scott and Guy discuss how these markets are influencing state and national politics. Then, they’re joined by Kate Knibbs, senior writer at WIRED, to understand who’s governing these platforms and how they’ve managed to flourish even in states where gambling is illegal.  Check out ⁠⁠⁠Political Breakdown’s weekly newsletter⁠⁠⁠, delivered straight to your inbox. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices