Minisode: Answering Uncertainty, Venture’s Vibes Problem & the Limits of TVPI

What happens when you take the most exclusive asset class in the world and list it on the New York Stock Exchange? Sarah Pinto is finding out in public, every trading day.Sarah spent close to a decade investing in mission-driven growth-stage companies at Emerson Collective, the organization founded and led by Laurene Powell Jobs, where she helped build the venture effort and backed names that are now household ones: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Coinbase. She began investing in July of 2008, which turned out to be an instructive moment to start, and has been focused on tech since 2010.Today she is a portfolio manager at Robinhood Ventures, where she runs two funds built around a structural problem rather than an appetite one: only about 1% of Americans have any exposure to private companies, because most people aren’t accredited. Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) is a ’40 Act closed-end fund that IPO’d in March 2026 and holds a concentrated portfolio of late-stage frontier companies: Databricks, OpenAI, Stripe, and SpaceX among them. Fund II (RVII) is the other side of the barbell: a BDC investing in a broad, diversified portfolio of Y Combinator seed-stage companies.Beezer digs into the machinery and the tensions - why the ’40 Act and BDC wrappers make any of this possible, how she pitches founders against Sequoia and Index, whether venture really belongs in a public product at all, and what the data actually shows about how retail investors behave when the price drops. It is a conversation about access, structure, and the strange discipline of running a venture portfolio in full public view.Quotes“Only about 1% of Americans have any exposure to privates, because most people aren’t accredited. Which means that they can only watch companies like Anthropic or OpenAI emerge from the sidelines. They can’t be a part of it. They can’t actually benefit from that value creation.”“Most of my GP equivalents at other funds don’t have to be marked to market every single day, whereas I am. That is the challenge. It comes with a lot of additional scrutiny and it comes with volatility that you don’t have if you are private. But it is the only way today that the SEC will let non-accredited investors invest - and frankly for good reasons.”“The CFOs of the companies we invest in know that retail is 25% to 30% of the stock market. In the same way that you bring crossover institutional investors into your late rounds, you should probably bring retail as a constituency. It’s the one constituency you don’t talk to until your IPO. And now you really need them.”Time Stamps[01:05] Meet Sarah Pinto: Emerson Collective to Robinhood Ventures[03:58] The Through Line: Investing at the Intersection of Purpose and Returns[05:46] Why Only 1% of Americans Can Access the Private Markets[07:10] What Emerson Collective Was Built to Do[08:15] RVI and the '40 Act Innovation: A Venture Fund That Trades Like an ETF[09:49] Robinhood as Both Distribution and Product[11:29] How the Portfolio Actually Gets Built[14:02] What You're Really Diligencing When You Buy the Fund[14:33] Why the Apple IPO Math Doesn't Work Anymore[15:44] Marked to Market Every Single Day[16:44] What Changes When You Manage Venture Publicly[19:38] The Pitch to Founders: Why Robinhood Is an N of One[21:35] Retail as a Constituency Before the IPO[23:58] Is Venture Really a Public Product?[24:19] Learn by Doing: Fees, Disclosure, and the $25 Share[28:01] RVII and the Other Side of the Barbell[29:48] Why YC: The Power Law, Concentration, and Hard Data[31:11] Taking a Seed Fund Through the LP Inquisition[31:59] The Live Roadshow and the Most Edgar Filings in IPO History[33:13] What's Next for Robinhood Ventures[36:30] Getting More Women Investing EarlyLinksConnect with the guest and host on LinkedIn!Sarah PintoBeezer ClarksonLearn more about:Robinhood VenturesRobinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI)Robinhood Ventures Fund II (RVII)Emerson CollectiveLGT Capital PartnersOpenLP

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, LGT Capital Partners) unpack their recent conversation with Alec Litowitz, founder of Magnetar Capital and founder and managing partner of QStar Capital. They discuss what changes when a rigorously structured public-markets mind looks at early-stage venture, why “answering uncertainty” is a sharper frame than simply living with it, and where TVPI stopped telling the truth after 2021.For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vcCHAPTERS:[00:00] Welcome to Origins[00:45] Alec Episode Takeaways[01:03] Agency, AI & Where the Human Still Matters[01:45] Why Structure Is Such a Powerful Tool[03:31] How Structured Can Seed Investing Really Be?[04:31] How Venture Answers Uncertainty[04:51] The Portfolio Review Nick Wants to Try[05:51] TVPI as a False Signal & the SaaS Regime[07:33] Do LPs Even Look at TVPI Anymore?Learn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vcLearn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vcLearn more about LGT Capital Partners: https://www.lgtcp.com

What does it take to build a profitable company for a decade without ever really needing the money you raised? According to Joshua Browder, it comes down to one trait he looks for in every founder he backs: grit.Josh is the founder and CEO of DoNotPay, the consumer platform he started the summer before he enrolled at Stanford to help friends fight parking tickets. Nearly ten years later, DoNotPay has helped millions of people appeal tickets, cancel subscriptions, and fight companies and the government - and it's profitable enough that it pays dividends back to its own investors and team. Along the way, Josh raised from Andreessen Horowitz and Founders Fund, took the Thiel Fellowship (leaving Stanford one class short of his degree), and built a reputation as one of the more unconventional operators in consumer tech.Today, Josh also runs Browder Capital, a solo-GP pre-seed fund now on its fourth vehicle and backed by institutions including Sequoia. His model is deliberately narrow: one founder at a time, often moved into his own spare bedroom, with full access to his network until they raise an institutional seed round - then he moves on to the next.Nick and Josh get into the early days of DoNotPay - jailbreaking iPhones, an unauthorized Pret A Manger app that nearly got him sued at 14, and the Huffington Post post that took the company from 10 users to 50,000 in a week - and how that scrappy, bootstrapped era shaped the way he runs the company today. They also dig into DoNotPay's ongoing arms race with robocallers and big companies, why Josh thinks grit beats IQ when evaluating founders, how he tests for it in real time, and why - even as a full-time investor - he'd tell almost anyone to start a company before starting a fund.Time Stamps[02:27] Josh Browder's Origin Story: From London to Stanford[04:08] Jailbreaking iPhones, Selling Apps, and the Pret A Manger Cease-and-Desist[06:32] Coding DoNotPay the Summer Before Stanford and Going Viral Overnight[10:08] Nonprofit or For-Profit? A Cold DM From Marc Andreessen[11:30] Inside the Thiel Fellowship: Money, Peers, and Community[14:21] Going Solo, Sitting on Cash, and Finding a Business Model[15:00] Bootstrapping Then vs. Today's Mega Seed Rounds[17:55] Profitable, Dividend-Paying, and Barely Touching Its Capital[18:28] The Consumer Growth Playbook: Organic, SEO, and GEO[19:59] The Arms Race With Big Companies: DoNotPay's Robocaller Trap Card[24:04] How Browder Capital Started and the Owner.com Bet That Beat the Best VCs[25:29] The Model: One Founder, One Spare Bedroom, at a Time[30:54] Why Grit Beats IQ – and How Josh Tests for It[34:57] The Rise of "Ideological Fraud" in the Age of AI Deep Research[35:32] Lessons From Four Funds: Zero Reserves and Going Institutional[37:16] How Operator-GPs Won Over Institutional LPs[39:32] Final Advice: Start the Company, Not the FundLinksConnect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!Joshua BrowderBeezer ClarksonNick ChirlsLearn more about:DoNotPayBrowder CapitalAsylum VenturesOpenLPDisclaimer:Opinions expressed by participants are their own and do not reflect the views of LGT Capital Partners, Asylum Ventures, DoNotPay, Browder Capital or its affiliates. The content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not intended as a recommendation, an offer, solicitation of an offer, public advertisement or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no warranty is given as to accuracy or completeness, and it should not be relied upon. Alternative investments are speculative, involve complex instruments, and carry a high degree of risk. Investments and strategies discussed may fluctuate in value and may not be suitable for all investors. Listeners should make their own independent investment decisions. No funds are being discussed on this podcast.

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, LGT Capital Partners) unpack their recent conversation with Thomas Kristensen, Beezer's new colleague at LGT Capital Partners. They discuss what it actually takes to merge investing teams, why the endowment model still matters, and how a platform built on 700+ years of institutional history changes how you think about surviving venture cycles.For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vcCHAPTERS:[00:00] Welcome to Origins[00:44] Thomas Episode Takeaways[01:06] LP "Co-Founder Dating" - How Beezer & Thomas Built Alignment[01:42] Culture Fit Without the Questionnaire[04:35] Surviving Venture Cycles[06:24] The Endowment Model Revisited[07:41] Why LGT's Longevity Is a Competitive Advantage[09:38] What LPs Should Offer GPs Beyond CapitalLearn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vcLearn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vcLearn more about LGT Capital Partners: https://www.lgtcp.com

What separates the investors and founders who thrive in moments of radical change from those who don’t? According to Alec Litowitz, it isn’t intelligence or emotional maturity - it’s adaptability.Alec is the founder of Magnetar Capital, one of the most respected multi-strategy hedge funds in the world, and the founder and managing partner of QStar Capital, his single family office and investment platform. Over a 30-year career that began at J.P. Morgan, continued as a founding partner and global head of equities at Citadel, and culminated in building Magnetar from scratch, Alec developed a framework he calls the Adaptability Quotient - AQ - for making decisions under genuine uncertainty. His book, The Adaptability Quotient, publishes September 15th.Today, through QStar, Alec invests with no fund mandate and no LP constraints - thematically across both public and private markets, in everything from CoreWeave and SpaceX to top-tier VC and PE managers. That unconstrained vantage point, combined with three decades of pattern recognition across market regimes, gives him a distinctive lens on where venture capital sits inside the current moment of change.Nick and Beezer dig into the core distinction Alec draws between risk and uncertainty - a difference he argues most investors collapse at their peril - and how the AQ framework maps directly onto how founders build, how VCs back them, and how the venture ecosystem itself needs to adapt. They also get into what he calls the second cognitive revolution: why AI isn’t just a new tool but a system-level regime change, what that means for the capital stack and liquidity timelines in venture, and why the answer for smaller players isn’t resistance - it’s remapping.Quotes"What entrepreneurs get paid for is not risk. They get paid for uncertainty, for resolving the uncertainty. People may stay at some stranger's house or they may not, but I don't know the probability. If it's high, I have a business. If it's zero, I don't have a business. Let's go resolve that probability. And when someone does a startup and tests it, raises money, probes around it, and gets feedback loops - the answer is yes. That's what they get paid for, for resolving that uncertainty."Time Stamps00:00 What Entrepreneurs Actually Get Paid For00:31 Introducing Alec Litowitz: Citadel, Magnetar, and QStar02:49 Three Career Chapters and the Through Line: A Systematic Approach to Uncertainty06:09 The Book: Why Alec Wrote The Adaptability Quotient07:29 AQ Defined: Why IQ and EQ Aren’t Enough When the Frame Itself Changes9:40 Why QStar: No Constraints, No Mandates, Just Mapping the Moment12:22 QStar’s Investment Framework: Thematic, Top-Down, Technocentric and Anthrocentric14:51 Why Venture Still Matters: The Venture 20, the Mag Seven, and Where Disruption Lives17:03 Risk vs. Uncertainty vs. Black Swan: The Framework Most Investors Get Wrong22:30 Applying AQ in Venture: MVPs as Probes, Pivots as Feedback Loops22:51 A Case Study in Failing Without Feedback Loops24:33 The Second Cognitive Revolution: Why AI Is a Regime Change, Not a Tool29:20 Is SaaS Uninvestable? What Becomes Abundant and What Becomes Scarce32:53 Mapping the Venture Ecosystem: Capital Intensity, New Entrants, and IRR Pressure37:08 The Liquidity Problem Reframed: DPI, TDPI, and Timeline Mismatch40:12 Secondary Markets as a Structural Response43:48 Final Advice: Upgrade Your Operating SystemLinksConnect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!Alec LitowitzBeezer ClarksonNick ChirlsLearn more about:The Adaptability Quotient (pre-order on Amazon)QStar CapitalMagnetar Capital⁠⁠Early Adapters Newsletter⁠⁠Asylum Ventures⁠⁠OpenLP

What does it look like when one of the world’s most longstanding institutional investors ($120B) decides to go deeper into venture capital? And what happens when one of the most respected LP teams in the business joins forces with them?Thomas Kristensen, who is responsible for the venture capital business at LGT Capital Partners, joins hosts Nick and Beezer for a wide-ranging conversation that doubles as an announcement: the Sapphire Partners team – including Beezer, Laura and Nate – have joined LGT Capital Partners. Thomas explains why the fit made sense.LGT Capital Partners manages over $120 billion on behalf of more than 700 institutional clients and is owned by the Princely Family of Liechtenstein. That ownership brings a long-term perspective, often measured in decades rather than years, and it shapes how Thomas and his team approach venture: with patience, close partnership and a willingness to be both buyer and seller in private markets.Together with Nick and Beezer, Thomas unpacks the firm's recently published white paper on the case for increasing venture allocation, built on three pillars: lifecycle diversification, an innovation hedge against AI-driven displacement and the maturation of secondary markets as a liquidity tool. He also offers a frank assessment of the current market, noting that the pace of deployment feels reminiscent of 2020-2021, and that a valuation dip may be coming regardless of how transformative AI ultimately proves to be.From the endowment model's stress test to the temptation of clinging to a single fund-returner, this is a thoughtful conversation about long-term thinking from an investor who has spent more than two decades refining his approach.Quotes“It’s not new that incumbents are challenged by new entrants. I think what’s new is the speed at which this is happening. In the age of AI, it feels like there is a risk that many incumbents could be displaced quite quickly. And so including venture capital in your portfolio is a way of hedging against this.”Time Stamps04:13 Meet Thomas Kristensen, Head of Venture Capital at LGT Capital Partners05:52 The Princely Family of Liechtenstein and the Long-Term Mindset08:37 The White Paper: Why LGT Capital Partners Is Increasing Its Venture Allocation09:45 Three Pillars: Lifecycle Diversification, Innovation Hedge, and Secondary Markets12:35 Big News: The Sapphire Partners Team Joins LGT Capital Partners17:35 LP Consolidation: What It Means for GPs23:47 GP Advice: Keep First Things First on LP Alignment32:03 Engineering a More Liquid Private Portfolio37:07 AI Market Heat and Fundraising Pace45:44 Closing Remarks and What’s NextLinksConnect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!• Thomas Kristensen• Beezer Clarkson• Nick ChirlsLearn more about:• LGT Capital Partners• Asylum Ventures• OpenLP• LGT Venture Capital White PaperOpinions expressed by participants are their own and do not reflect the views of LGT Capital Partners, Asylum or its affiliates. The content does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs, and is not intended as a recommendation, an offer, solicitation of an offer, public advertisement or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no warranty is given as to accuracy or completeness, and it should not be relied upon. Alternative investments are speculative, involve complex instruments, and carry a high degree of risk. Investments and strategies discussed may fluctuate in value and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Listeners should make their own independent investment decisions. No funds are being discussed on this podcast.

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, Sapphire Partners) react to their conversation with Nicholas Csicsko, a public/private investor at Trinity. They dig into his framing of “cynical optimism” and why it might be the right posture for venture investing, unpack the growing obsolescence risk for SaaS companies from earlier vintages, and cap it off with a live question: if sovereign wealth pulls back from US venture, what breaks first?For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vcCHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome to Origins00:54 Musicians as Investors01:39 Cynical Optimism Explained02:47 Investor Role Beyond Cheerleading03:11 Steadying Founder Emotions05:59 SaaS Obsolete Before Liquidity07:06 Old SaaS Playbook Breaks08:00 Lovable Growth Reality Check09:01 Creative Destruction Across Portfolios10:17 LP Optimism and Venture Nuance11:26 Ugly Truths About Great InvestorsLearn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vcLearn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vcLearn more about Sapphire Partners: https://sapphire.vc

What happens when a classically trained musician from Juilliard ends up managing a $6 billion endowment? Today's episode of Origins explores exactly that journey - and what it reveals about how the best institutional investors really think.Nicholas Csicsko, Managing Director of Investments at Trinity Church NYC, brings a rare perspective to venture capital - one shaped by years of classical music training, a doctorate from Juilliard, and a decade building out one of America's most unique institutional investors. Trinity Church, founded in 1697 and endowed with 215 acres of Manhattan by Queen Anne in 1705, has grown its diversified investment pool to over $4 billion under Nicholas and CIO Meredith Jenkins.Together with hosts Nick & Beezer, the group digs into what institutional LPs really look for in venture managers, and what puts them off. From the tension between patient capital and the need for liquidity, to skepticism around sky-high private market valuations and the growing disconnect between private and public markets, Nicholas delivers the kind of frank, independent thinking that makes for a truly exceptional investor.Along the way, they explore the virtues of "cynical optimism" in early-stage investing, the institutional pressures that push LPs toward brand-name funds, and why Nicholas believes the best venture managers are those who know themselves deeply. From the challenges of scaling a venture firm to whether today's AI-driven capital surge is sustainable, this conversation offers a grounded, data-aware take on what it takes to build lasting returns in private markets.—Quotes"If you could put a bunch of investments into a line item that wasn't going to receive scrutiny, that left tail risk of something going to zero would probably be less. But if it's visible, it's discussable. You probably don't get fired for doing the next a16z fund, but you might be questioned if you take a flyer on someone who's up and coming. And so there's this institutional pressure towards, dare I say, conformity. But what's safe? What's perceived as safe?”"It's all fine and good that folks think they can raise and put more money to work, but I'm a little worried about where it's taking us because when open AI raises around 4x larger than any IPO in history, I kind of worry that we're creating a market that is not sustainable because ultimately there's not enough liquidity. There is a massive disconnect there.”"Knowing thyself is probably the number one thing I would attribute to all of the best investors I've met. And as they get older and more experienced, they know what they think they need more and more without stopping challenging their bias, without adding that new person to make them better.”—Time Stamps00:55 Meet Nicholas Csicsko, Managing Director, Investments at Trinity Wall Street02:24 Musician Mindset to Investing03:40 From Juilliard to Finance05:56 Trinity Church Endowment Story09:56 Building the Portfolio and Venture12:31 Institutional Risk and Conformity14:47 Private Public Market Disconnect18:57 DPI, TVPI and Secondaries20:41 Backing Off Radar Managers23:47 Cynical Optimism in Venture28:04 Building a VC Firm Team34:34 Where Venture Fits Today39:02 Too Much Capital and Liquidity?42:20 Closing and Next Episode—LinksConnect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!Nicholas CsicskoBeezer ClarksonNick ChirlsLearn more about:Trinity Church NYCAlfred P. Sloan FoundationOpenLPAsylum Ventures

Origins hosts Nick Chirls (GP, Asylum Ventures) and Beezer Clarkson (LP, LGT Capital Partners) unpack a recent conversation with David Clark, CIO of VenCap International PLC on megafunds vs small funds and a16z returns. They also discuss Beezer’s article “I See Dead VCs,” which explores how VC is in the first meaningful industry-wide contraction in modern venture history, risks to seed formation, and the workstreams required for emerging managers to institutionalize and endure.For a monthly roundup of the latest venture insights, including the newest Origins episodes, subscribe to the OpenLP newsletter – delivered straight to your inbox: https://subscribe.openlp.vcCHAPTERS:00:00 Welcome to Origins00:33 David Episode Takeaways02:01 I See Dead VCs Article02:59 Venture Contraction Data04:17 Fund Survival Math05:47 Seed Ecosystem Risk07:35 What Gets You to Fund Two08:48 Building a Durable Firm11:13 Traits of Long Run ManagersLearn more about OpenLP: https://openlp.vcLearn more about Asylum Ventures: https://asylum.vcLearn more about VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/Read Beezer’s article “I See Dead VCs”: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/i-see-dead-vcs-elizabeth-beezer-clarkson-uc4xc/

What does patience look like today when the best companies take 10–15 years to exit, and is it still worth it to wait that long? Today’s episode of Origins dives into one of the most pressing questions in today’s market: how to balance long-term conviction with the need for liquidity.David Clark, CIO of VenCap and a three-decade veteran of institutional venture investing, returns to the show to bring his rare LP perspective shaped by backing some of the most established venture franchises in the industry. Known for a data-first approach, David offers insight into how top-tier firms consistently generate returns, and how those dynamics evolve as fund sizes scale into the billions.Together with hosts Nick & Beezer, the group explores the implications of venture capital consolidation, the persistence of power law outcomes, and the shifting role of liquidity in private markets. From the rise and returns of mega-funds like a16z, to the growing importance of secondaries and delayed IPO timelines, the conversation surfaces the core tension of capturing extreme right-tail outcomes while still delivering tangible distributions to LPs. Along the way, they debate whether “patient capital” is truly a viable strategy, or if today’s venture structure inherently rewards more active portfolio management. Ultimately, today’s discussion offers a data-driven look at how venture is changing and how fund managers can look to stay ahead.—Quotes“If our managers have one of those top 1% companies, we want to encourage them to let it ride. Because we don't see the very best managers selling their best companies prematurely. That's not how we've seen the best fund level performance. And if you are able to hold those companies through to their full potential, that's where the real value is created.” – David Clark“I actually think the late stage private markets have become the public markets for early stage venture fund managers. And I think if you consider [that possibility], you can find much more predictability and consistency in performance, returns, and DPI. As much, or maybe even more than large later stage managers.” – Nick Chirls“What I've seen in the last few years is people taking exits into consideration, which makes my heart very happy. Because for years people were not, and they weren't thinking about returning capital along the way. You can take 10%, 20% and return 1x or 2x your fund. That is a very credible conversation to have with your LPAC.” – Beezer Clarkson—Time Stamps01:13 Meet David Clark, CIO of VenCap03:29 a16z Fundraising Surge05:31 First Principles Venture Model07:18 Public Markets And IPO Scale09:32 Do Big Funds Want Private13:17 Power Law Still Rules14:28 Fund Size And DPI Timing16:36 Early Stage Fund Math20:59 Small Funds Versus Platforms24:02 Portfolio Construction Tradeoffs25:40 Late Stage As New Public28:44 Liquidity As A New Skill30:55 When To Take Chips Off33:25 Founder Secondaries And Alignment35:13 Venture Capital Consolidation Risks40:47 Big Firms Funding Emerging Managers44:30 Patient Capital Debate48:00 Going Public Incentive Concerns—Links Connect with the guest and hosts on LinkedIn!David ClarkBeezer ClarksonNick ChirlsLearn more about:Read Packy McCormick's blog post on a16z: The Power BrokerVenCapOpenLPAsylum Ventures