MacroTides' Welsh: This market will keep running, but a bear market is coming

Macro strategist Jim Welsh, publisher of the Macro Tides and Weekly Technical Review newsletter, says that the advance-decline line has been making new highs for months, which is a signal that "the odds of experiencing a significant decline is unlikely," so while he thinks there are storm clouds on the horizon that could cause a 7-10 percent market decline around mid-term elections, he thinks a secular bear market is still well off into the future. After the short-term correction, Welsh sees the market returning to higher highs, based on what he sees in the advance-decline line. Still, Welsh makes it clear that there is a long-term secular bear market ahead, but it won't arrive until investors "have a really good reason to sell;" that could still be a ways off, until something truly problematic shows up in the data.  In the Market Call, Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, talks about the importance of getting the macro right before digging into the micro on stocks. In analyzing the macro, Hatfield says conditions should be supportive for continued growth, though he worries about a "totally irrational" rate hike from the Federal Reserve — but also is concerned about the impact that a rate cut could have — could make the market and economy struggle. Plus, after Tuesday's conversation about annuities with Stan Haithcock — better known as "Stan the Annuity Man" — Chuck answers a listener's question about whether he has an annuity for his own long-term finances

Stan Haithcock — better known as "Stan the Annuity Man" — says that while higher interest rates may make annuity products more attractive right now, the real bargain is that life-expectancy tables have not been adjusted for the advancements artificial intelligence is creating that will lengthen life expectancies. Payments in the future will be lower, Haithcock says, "but current life expectancy tables are a bargain ... and in about two or three years you will see that change." Haithcock — who has called himself "the walking middle finger of annuity truth" — notes that with 15,000 people turning 65 every day and just 9% of the population covered by pensions, "it's a demographic tidal wave of people looking for guarantees and looking to put in an income floor." He discusses the best ways to do that — buying an annuity "for what it will do, not what it might do" —  with various types of annuities, and which products and sales pitches to walk away from. The bond market sold off last week, pushing long-term bond yields to levels unseen since 2007, at the same time copper prices went through their 10th straight week of rising prices to get close enough to record levels that a new peak is expected this week. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that the numbers are real but market concerns over them are temporary. He expects the market to shake it off, meaning there are buying opportunities hidden among the headlines. Marolia also discusses an analysis released last week by the Burning Glass Institute — a labor-market think tank — showing that unemployment among workers ages 22 to 34 without a college degree has dropped to levels it has barely touched in the last two decades, which he thinks speaks to bigger trend on the value of a college education. Plus, Cary Sinnett, director of personal financial planning for the American Institute of CPAs, discusses their recent survey showing that Americans don't just love their pets, they make personal financial decisions around them. More than 60% of American dog and cat owners have a budget for spending on their pet, but nearly 7 in 10 say that, if faced with having to cut household spending, they would be more likely to cheap out on themselves ratehr than their pets.

Veteran technical analyst Tim Knight, founder of SlopeofHope.com, says precious metals "are going to kick the socks off equities for a long while to come," noting that it might be less that they gain ground than that they hold their status while stocks go in the tank, but he says conditions are ripe for a market downturn, as early as the end of this year after midterm elections. Knight, who acknowledges that he is something of a perma-bear — says he expects the market to be "very, very supportive of all things A.I. until Anthropic is out {with its initial public offering]," at which point it will evaluate the future and whether the expected A.I. spending boom can continue. If there is a misstep at that point and the A.I. revolution slows "it would dwarf the housing crisis if, suddenly, the spigot turned off." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses how business-development companies are rebounding from rough times earlier this year when net asset values crumbled as the market worried about too much exposure to parts of the software industry that could be negatively impacted by continued development of artificial intelligence. Scott says that the A.I. risk for BDCs appears  overblown, since "We're still not seeing software blowing up BDCs," though he does think it may take another two quarters of data to confirm that trend. Scott also notes that BDCs have not seen "exacerbated losses," meaning the dire forecasts have yet to play out in portfolios. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, talks about buying "Rip van Winkle stocks" and long-term compounders and how hard they are to find in a world dominated by artificial-intelligence hyper-growth stories that could turn out to be a flash in the pan.

John Petrides, portfolio manager and financial adviser at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market "is the most concentrated it has ever been," and while he does not expect the technology cycle or artificial-intelligence boom to end soon, investors should see some cracks and warning signs that there will be trouble at some point. While he doesn't foresee a bubble, Petrides sayd "This is not a time to be running to one side of the boat, of being all in cash or all in bonds because the end of the world is coming," but he notes that there is not an asset class — even A.I. stocks — that is "a table-pounding, you've got to be all-in." As a result, he advocates for diversification, "being horizontal with your assets rather than vertical" and piled too much into any one asset class. Financial advisor Dustin Smith discusses a Wealth Enhancement study which found that more than half of parents and grandparents believe children today are less financially prepared to manage money as adults than they were growing up. The hardest money lessons to teach children, according to the survey, are avoiding impulse purchases and overspending, budgeting and managing everyday spending, and simply understanding how money is earned rather than given or taken. Plus, Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at Emerald Asset Management — manager of the Emerald Large Cap Focused Fund — brings his quant-active, fundamentals-meets-momentum approach to stocks in the Market Call.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, says he would not be surprised by the market taking a small pullback heading into the election, rallying after the voting is done, leaving the conversation for next year on whether the market is in a bubble and what could change its trajectory. Zaccarelli notes that the same forces that create booms — like artificial intelligence now, but every major technological advancement in the past — also leaves room for downturns and crashes. Zaccarelli notes that valuations are high, but earnings growth has been so big that it has held classic value measures like price/earnings ratios in check. "If it is a bubble," Zaccarelli says, "we don't think we're at the end yet," adding that investors should ride the wave while diversifying to prepare for its end. Freddie Smith, discusses his book, "Generation F*cked: How Millennials and Gen Z Were Robbed of the American Dream and How We Can Fix Our Futures," and how those younger generations should be responding personally and financially to the challenges that their age groups face as a society.  Chip Lupo, an analyst at WalletHub discusses the site's recent research into the best and worst places to retire, which covered more than 40 indicators of an area's level of "retirement-friendliness," from financial factors like tax rates and the cost of living to things like access to quality medical care and fun activities. While three of the top five cities for retiring were in Florida, but the top overall state for retirement was Wyoming, with Florida second and South Dakota third. Kentucky scored the worst among the 50 states. 

Christopher Gandy, president of the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors, says that many consumers and savers are so focused on hitting numbers that they lose sight of what they really want, which is "a great quality of life and not having to worry about running out of money." Gandy, who is the founder of the Legacy Wealth Group, says that people spend their lives considering how much it takes to retire without looking at what they need to spend to have the  retirement lifestyle they desire. Moreover, he says that those savers don't adjust their savings habits over time, so they set goals young but take poor paths to achieve them by not adjusting to their changing circumstances over time. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association discusses the August 2026 Beer Purchasers Index, which showed a marked improvement from last year, but which still maintains a "cautionary position" as the summer selling season winds down. The forward-looking index shows some signs of the K-shaped economy, with inflation and higher prices being reflected in below-premium brands picking up, with the top end of the curve spending more on premium beers and ciders. Luke Lango, lead technology and cryptocurrency analyst at InvestorPlace — publisher of the Innovation Investor newsletter — talks technology and artificial-intelligence investing in the Market Call, noting that while A.I. is tied into every positive tech story, every individual stock is its own situation, and the best prospects are companies that have something that is needed, defensible and able to turn demand into profits.

Jeff Weniger, chief investment strategist at Corgi Invest, says that while the bond market and long-term bond yields have made the market nervous, he thinks they are more likely to go sideways for a while and that largely neutral stance will let the economy keep pushing forward for at least several more quarters. Weniger says that the debt burden is likely to go sideways, which will remove the panic response from a nervous market and push trouble out well into 2027 or later. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses the circular nature of the artificial-intelligence capital -expenditure cycle, and whether it could dry up if any link in the commerce chain is broken. He also  discusses how Kalshi has partnered with Weather.com to get greater accuracy on climate-based prediction markets, and why this action highlights a need for integrity in the data backing prediction wagering. Marolia also discusses what he learned about Dolly Parton in the wake of the iconic country star's death, and the lesson he hopes investors and consumers will take away from her life. Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Columbia Mid-Cap Select in the Danger Zone, noting that the fund — currently up more than 25% year-to-date — gets a four-star rating from Morningstar, it has a portfolio filled with stocks that his firm pegs as dangerous. "You're buying very unattractive rated stocks and you're paying a premium for those stocks," Guske says, a condition that he believes is setting the fund up for a fall.

Buck Klintworth, senior vice president at Chase Investment Counsel, says that the market has been turning, to where recent laggards are now coming to the fore and some popular names slowing down. Coupled with mid-term elections, tariff and trade conflicts and war in the Middle East, Klintworth thinks investors may wait for clarity before they push the market higher. Klintworth, who runs the Chase Growth mutual fund, says investors "can't argue with the tape," meaning they shouldn't jump out of the market as it keeps powering through real concerns, but he says that the market's changing tides should have investors looking at whether they should pull back, pursue currently high yields to lock in income, and/or rebalance their portfolio. Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, appears in two different interviews today, reflecting his multiple roles at the money-management firm. In The NAVigator, Thummel — who manages the Tortoise Energy Infrastructure closed-end fund — says current conditions are as favorable for energy companies as he has ever seen in 30-plus years investing in the sector. He notes that "the foundation of the A.I. five-layer cake" described by Nvidia president Jensen Huang is energy and electricity. He says the focus on reliable and cost-efficient energy should have natural gas providers and producers leading the way, as natural gas remains cheap right now relative to other sources of power globally.  Thummel returns to talk individual stocks in the Market Call, covering both energy and artificial-intelligence infrastructure stocks, because he also manages Tortoise AI Infrastructure, an ETF that opened about a year ago and which is up more than 55% year-to-date.

Jason Vaillancourt, chief portfolio strategist at Columbia Threadneedle, says that while the artificial-intelligence freight train continues to drive the market, investors should recognize that they're "playing with house money, it's time to take some chips off the table." Vaillancourt acknowledges that sometimes the best gains of a cycle come at the end of a cycle and that no one wants to miss out on that, but he suggests doing that by reallocating into income strategies that participate in the upside but also pay out and build stability into a portfolio as the cycle wanes. Vaillancourt also discusses his take on the Fed and its lead on interest rates and whether policy could mess up an economy with a driver as strong as AI expansion. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, does two things in the final "ETF of the Week" that was not done in the roughly 750 episodes before it, covering two funds and both of them being single-stock funds, one offering leveraged exposure to Nvidia if you believe the stock is going up, the other providing negative exposure to the same company if you want to bet against it.  Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management and for the Argent Large-Cap ETF, discusses his focus on "enduring businesses," and what that means as a stock-picker in an age dominated by an emerging industry like artificial intelligence where "enduring" qualities can be hard to identify and find.

Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that for all of the attention headline risks are getting, the current market environment is "relatively benign and supportive of equities," and while there are legitimate questions about what could go wrong, he says the resilience of the domestic and global economy is proof that "The market is being thoughtful" and showing signs that this cycle is not near its end. Katz also discusses Treasury yields, and the concern many investors have over their current high levels, but says he believes "We're at a new normal" with the economy being strong enough to sustain Treasury rates near 5% without disrupting economic cycle. David Rose, chief investment officer at Granahan Investment Management, makes his debut in the Money Life Market Call, talking about small-cap stocks, detailing the firm's focus on "pioneer," core growth and "special situations" companies in pursuit of the traditional higher returns smaller stocks have delivered historically. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how and why he has used specialty retail credit cards, the kind that currently carry interest rates of 29.99% or more, and discusses how to turn those bad deals into real savings, earnings power and financial flexibility without losing your shirt.