Risk Assets Higher, Yields Higher Across Curve (E238)

DoubleLine Cross Asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a week ended Oct. 31 with just two sectors, tech and consumer discretionary, holding the S&P 500 above water, and risk sectors of fixed income – high yield, bank debt and emerging markets – showing gains with investment grade sectors lower as yields shifted higher across the curve. On the macro front, the first meeting by U.S. President Trump in his second term with China President Xi, Ryan notes, “removed some of the tail risk of further trade-war escalation.” However, the week’s biggest market-moving event came out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate 25 basis points. Powell’s flat advisory against assuming a further rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting lowered market-priced probabilities for such a cut from as high as 95% to 60% and pushing yields up along the curve. Looking ahead to Nov. 3-7, given the idling of government statistical mills during the shutdown, Mark and Ryan have private-sector data releases for October on their menu: ISM Manufacturing (Monday); ADP private employment and ISM Services (Wednesday); University of Michigan consumer expectations survey (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze the week ended Oct. 24 with stocks with tech leading on a benign September CPI print, fixed income eking out its carry and commodities led higher by WTI on U.S. sanctions against Russian crude oil. Gold, they note, posted its first negative week since mid-August. On the economic front, in the absence of national jobless claims data due to the federal government shutdown, Mark Kimbrough notes state-level stats suggest no undue stress in labor markets. S&P Global PMI data show an expansionary U.S. economy in both manufacturing and services sectors. Turning to the effects of the government shutdown, Mark unearths some research from the 1970s indicating that while delays in data collection probably will have little impact on the quality of the October nonfarm payrolls once that statistical series resumes reporting, biases due to poor memory recall could degrade the fidelity of the household U-3 unemployment survey and especially the CPI for the month of October. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 27-31, Jeff and Mark will be especially interested Wednesday in guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (after it is expected to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point) and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the markets and macro news for the week of Oct. 13-17 as the government shutdown reaches Day 17. It was a pretty positive week for stocks (00:29), with the only negative sector, financials, impacted by “a string of one-off credit events”; the Agg was up during a pretty quiet week for fixed income (3:07); and commodities were up (5:13), with precious metals up despite a dip in gold. It was another light week for macro data due to the shutdown (7:12), but Jeff and Ryan look at metrics including small business optimism, state jobless claims and credit card data. Fedspeak (13:05) events included Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell discussing QT policy ahead of the blackout period for the October FOMC meeting. Jeff and Ryan also field a listener question on whether mortgage rates coming in due to mortgage spreads tightening could lead to inflation (14:37), with them noting that rates would have to come in a lot for the current dynamic to change.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 6-10 week, punctuated by a Friday trade-war fright that reversed the week’s gains in stocks (0:27) and spurred a flight to safety into bonds (3:47). Commodities (6:11) followed energy lower, and gold consolidated near $4,000 an ounce. The “debasement trade” (6:25) attributed to gold’s winning streak is a topic for discussion, with Eric and Mark reminding listeners that despite gold’s luster as an asset outside the manipulations of fiat currencies, ultimately central banks’ appetite for bullion, or lack of it, will help decide where gold prices go from here. The week’s macro data (10:00) showed gradual weakening in consumer credit and, via the FOMC minutes, a flock of “scared doves” behind the Sept. 17 fed funds rate cut. Due to the government shutdown, the Oct. 13-17 week (17:41), Eric and Mark note, perhaps will be most notable for the scheduled government indicators that are NOT released: CPI, PPI and import prices on the inflation front and retail sales. Among the few major releases expected are the Federal Reserve’s beige book and industrial production report.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3 against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown. Eric and Ryan discuss the continuing strong run for equities on the back of high-fliers for September, Q3 and year-to-date (00:25) as well as healthy returns across all three time periods for fixed income (3:54) and commodities (5:38). While data delivery was light in Macro Land due to the shutdown, Eric and Ryan do take a look at prints that reflect a softening labor market (14:37), waning consumer confidence (19:00), weakening PMI numbers (19:44) and lower home prices (21:49). Next week could be a light week or very light week for data (24:35), depending on the shutdown, with the University of Michigan consumer survey among the nongovernmental prints on the schedule.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough chart a quiet week ended Sept. 26 for equities (0:36) and fixed income (1:53) while commodities advanced led by energy. The week’s macro prints (4:40) included preliminary expansionary readings for manufacturing and services on the S&P PMI for September; revision of second-quarter GDP to 3.8% annualized; and Core PCE preserving a disinflationary trend, albeit with a recent pick-up in services prices. Looking ahead (12:25) to the week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3, the big question will be whether a budget standoff between congressional Republicans and Democrats leads to a government shutdown on Oct. 1. If the federal bureaucracy goes dark, private data such as the ADP employment report, Jeff Mayberry notes, could become more important than usual, given the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and other reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the Sept. 15-19 week, with stocks (0:22) rallying to new highs on tech, comm services and consumer discretionary; yield-curve steepening (2:15); and commodities weakening amid strength in precious metals (3:40). The week’s macro news (7:04) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarter-point fed funds rate cut and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Sept. 17 indicating a preoccupation with risks to the labor market, albeit in a context of ongoing concern about the future path of inflation. While forecasts in some corners called for as many as three FOMC member dissents, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who has called for three 0.5% federal funds rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, voted in disagreement with Wednesday’s quarter-point cut. However, Eric and Ryan take note of the extraordinary dispersion among FOMC members over the future course of monetary policy. Looking ahead to the week of Sept. 22-26 (21:43), Eric and Ryan will be particularly focused on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August. Based on CPI, PPI and import and export prices, economists’ consensus forecasts a relatively benign month-over-month increase of 20 basis points (0.20%), which would leave the year-over-year Core PCE increase unchanged at 2.9%.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a pretty positive run for markets for the week of Sept. 8-12, with performance impacted by investors believing a Fed cut is all but assured next week. The tech sector pushed the S&P 500 to more record highs (1:05), fixed income was supported by a rally on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve (3:27), and commodities were up on the back of industrial and precious metals (6:06). Over in Macro Land, the BLS released steep prelim benchmark revisions to establishment survey jobs data, but Eric and Mark caution the final numbers could vary (7:57); Mark breaks down the deceleration in the PPI print (11:02); Eric and Mark look at the most recent CPI print and whether its supportive of a Fed cut (13:43); they review job numbers that are supportive of a Fed cut (16:15); and they talk about the latest dour outlook in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (17:36). Next week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with the only real speculation is on whether it will be a 25-bp (most likely) or 50-bp cut and if FOMC nominee Stephen Miran will be approved in time to participate in this meeting.

Stocks (0:33) were mixed the week ended Sept. 5 as yields (1:51) fell across the fixed income universe and commodities (4:16) were flat with gold among the winners and crude oil and industrial metals lower. In the week’s macro news (5:12), DoubleLine Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel notes, was dominated by weakening in the labor market in August. That weakness, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry says, translated into the federal funds futures market pricing in 2.9 quarter-point cuts over the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 and six cuts, totaling 150 basis points, over the next 15 months. Looking ahead to the Sept.8-12 week (16:09), Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions (Tuesday), August producer price index (Wednesday), consumer price index and jobless claims (Thursday) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a mostly quiet week ended Aug. 29 and the month of August. On the week, equities (0:40) proved a mixed bag, with energy leading upside sectors, and utilities and tech heading lower. Tech pressured by news Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek will rely on Chinese chip manufacturers. Common stocks also witnessed outperformance in small-cap and equal-weighted indexes. Fixed income (2:43) hosted further steepening of the Treasury yield curve. Commodities gained (4:18), led by precious metals, with the dollar ending the week flat.   Amid the week’s mostly benign macro news (5:15) such as a bounce-back in capital goods orders decent personal income and spending, Mark Kimbrough notes, a positive second-quarter GDP report notwithstanding, a weak 1Q-2Q growth rate for private domestic final purchases. Turning to Fed watch (11:46), Jeff Mayberry reports the futures markets on Aug. 29 are pricing in an 88% probability of a federal funds rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 17 and 2.7 quarter-point cuts total in 2025. Looking ahead to macro news (12:29) in the abbreviated week of Sept. 2-5, Jeff and Mark will be especially focused on the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports due on Friday.