Midrats

For decades, while the rest of the world’s powers have distracted and tangled themselves with wars of choice and blunder, the People’s Republic of China has been watching, learning, and building. To what end?Returning to Midrats to discuss this and more will be Dean Cheng.Dean is a Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace; Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.He recently retired after 13 years with the Heritage Foundation, where he was a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs, and wrote on various aspects of Chinese foreign and defense policy.Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the China Studies Division (previously, Project Asia) at CNA from 2001-2009.Before joining CNA, he was a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 1996-2001. From 1993-1995, he was an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment in the International Security and Space Division, where he studied the Chinese defense industrial complex.He is the author of the book Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (NY: Praeger Publishing, 2016), as well as a number of papers and book chapters examining various aspects of Chinese security affairs.Show LinksXi Jinping hails ‘unstoppable’ China at landmark military parade, Financial TimesMore than pageantry, China’s military parade shows off new missiles, drones and other equipment, The IndependentYJ-15 missile, YJ-19, YJ-17, YJ-20 hypersonic missiles, Global TimesNASA Names Astronauts to Next Moon Mission, First Crew Under ArtemisSummaryIn this conversation, Dean Cheng and the hosts discuss the implications of China’s recent military parade, the evolution of its nuclear capabilities, and the modernization of its conventional military forces. They focus on China’s ambition to establish a new world order and the strategic importance of its space and cyber capabilities. The discussion also touches on the role of coercion and deterrence in China’s military strategy, as well as the challenges posed by its growing influence on the global stage.TakeawaysChina’s military parade reflects its growing power and ambition.The presence of foreign leaders at the parade indicates shifting alliances.China is expanding its nuclear capabilities significantly.The PLA is focusing on both conventional and nuclear modernization.China’s approach to military strategy includes both coercion and deterrence.The Chinese space program aims for long-term presence on the moon.China’s cyber capabilities are evolving rapidly and pose a threat.The PLA’s indigenous production capabilities are improving.China’s military strategy is influenced by its historical context.The geopolitical landscape is changing with China’s rise.Chapters00:00: Introduction to the Discussion on China and Military Parades03:07: Analysis of the Recent Military Parade and Its Implications06:05: The Evolution of China’s Nuclear Capabilities12:07: China’s Conventional Military Strategy and Modernization16:04: China’s Global Influence and New World Order20:06: The Role of Coercion and Deterrence in Chinese Strategy26:12: China’s Space Program and Technological Advancements34:59: China’s Cyber and Information Warfare Capabilities43:46: The Future of China’s Military and Strategic Developments

Yes, September is Australian Appreciation Month on the Midrats Podcast. Building on our discussion earlier this month with Liz Buchanan, we are returning to the perspective from the Antipodes with returning guest Gray Connolly.From Afghanistan, to the Antarctic, to the approaches to the Arctic through the Pacific, we’ll have a broad-reaching discussion of allied national security concerns from the Australian perspective.Gray Connolly served as a Naval Intelligence officer in the Royal Australian Navy. He graduated from the Royal Australian Naval College and holds the King’s Commission. Gray is a graduate in Arts (Honours - History) from the University of Sydney and in Law (Dean’s Merit List) from the University of New South Wales.Gray served previously in Asia and the Middle East, including service in the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, East Timor, and the Middle East. Gray served in the Iraq War (two deployments) and Afghanistan.Gray is now a Barrister-at-Law in Sydney. He has advised the Australian Government on national security and public law matters and served as a Senior Member of the federal Administrative Appeals Tribunal.He keeps a blog at “Strategy Counsel” and his Twitter is @GrayConnollyAll of Gray’s comments and opinions are his alone and do NOT represent the view of the Australian Government.SummaryIn this episode of Midrats, the discussion revolves around Australia's national security, particularly in the context of the AUKUS agreement, its relationships with major powers like China and India, and the importance of alliances. Gray shares insights on the public support for AUKUS, the challenges posed by Australia's geographic isolation, and the historical context of Australia's military contributions. The conversation also touches on the complexities of Australia's relationship with Indonesia and the implications of China's influence in Antarctica.TakeawaysAUKUS is popular among Australians, reflecting a bipartisan agreement.Australia's geographic isolation necessitates strong military capabilities.The AUKUS agreement is crucial for Australia's national security.Australia's resource management is complicated by economic dependencies.Alliances are vital for Australia due to its size and population.Australia values its historical military contributions to global conflicts.The Australian character emphasizes internationalism and support for allies.China's influence in Antarctica poses significant concerns for Australia.Australia's relationship with Indonesia has improved over the years.Cricket serves as a cultural bridge between Australia and India.Chapters00:00: Introduction to MidRats and Australia Appreciation Month02:30: AUKUS Agreement: A National Security Perspective03:50: Public Support for AUKUS in Australia06:20: Australia's Resource Management and Economic Dependencies08:28: The Importance of Alliances in National Security10:00: Australia's Geographic Challenges and Military Needs11:04: Australia's Commitment to the Alliance12:32: The Impact of European Defense Spending on Australia13:00: Australia's Historical Military Contributions15:22: The Australian National Character and Internationalism18:23: Concerns Over China's Influence in Antarctica40:06: Australia's Relationship with Indonesia55:04: Australia's Growing Ties with India

Waves of different groups seeking new homes from east and west have arrived and disappeared on Greenland’s hostile shores for thousands of years. In the modern era of nation states, it is Greenland’s unique location and potential resources that are drawing attention once again as her strategic position once again brings her to the front.Today’s Midrats Podcast is going to start there with our guest, Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan.We will kick off with her latest book as a touchstone to our conversation, So You Want to Own Greenland?: Lessons from the Vikings to Trump.Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan is a senior fellow with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and an expert associate of the French Ministry of Armed Forces’ Institute for Strategic Research. Most recently she was Head of Research for the Royal Australian Navy (Department of Defence). Dr Buchanan is co-founder of the polar warfare program (Project 6633) at the Modern War Institute of the West Point Military Academy. Before joining Australia’s Defence Department, Dr. Buchanan was Lecturer of Strategic Studies for the Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian War College. Elizabeth holds a Ph.D. in Russian Arctic Strategy and completed her post-doctoral studies as a Maritime Fellow at the NATO Defense College in Rome. She has published widely on geopolitics, most recently with Australian Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, War on the Rocks, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The Australian, and The American Conservative. Dr. Buchanan has been a Visiting Scholar with the Brookings Institution and was an analyst with Royal Dutch Shell. Elizabeth has three published books:: Russian Energy Strategy in Asia and Red Arctic: Russian Arctic Strategy under Putin. In addition to, So you want to own Greenland, she also has an upcoming book, Competitive Cooperation at the Ends of the Earth.Show LinksSo You Want to Own Greenland?: Lessons from the Vikings to Trump, by Elizabeth BuchananAustralia must pivot to ‘pit-stop power’ for AUKUS to work, by Elizabeth BuchananChina's parade of military might raises big questions about the AUKUS muddle, by Laura TingleEpisode 708: The Icebreaker Imperative, with Peter RybskiBering Strait TunnelSummaryIn this episode of Midrats, Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan discusses her book on Greenland's strategic importance, the historical context of U.S.-Greenland relations, and the implications of China's growing influence in the Arctic and Antarctic. The conversation explores Denmark's role in Greenland's future, the challenges of independence, and the significance of AUKUS in the context of U.S.-Australia relations. The discussion emphasizes the need for a strategic approach to the polar regions amidst great power competition.TakeawaysThe U.S. has a long-standing interest in Greenland, dating back to WWII.Denmark's control over Greenland is complicated by post-colonial dynamics.China's presence in the Arctic is growing and poses a challenge to U.S. interests.Australia's role in AUKUS is as a 'pit stop power' for U.S. submarines.The future of Greenland may hinge on its independence from Denmark.Public perception of Greenland's relationship with the U.S. is often disingenuous.The Arctic is becoming a global commons, complicating international relations.Australia faces challenges in defending its vast territory against Chinese encroachment.The U.S. needs to adapt its strategy to the changing dynamics in the Arctic and Antarctic.Chapters00:00: Introduction01:41: Exploring Greenland's Strategic Importance05:44: Historical Context of Greenland and U.S. Relations12:14: Greenland's Future and Independence16:42: Denmark's Role and Challenges21:30: China's Influence in the Arctic and Antarctic29:13: Great Power Competition in the Polar Regions34:44: AUKUS and Australia's Strategic Position41:15: Future of U.S.-Australia Relations

This summer, the fourth summer of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started in the winter of 2022, we find the first serious and determined effort towards a genuine negotiation to end this grinding war in Eastern Europe.The experiences and lessons of this war aren’t only changing how nations throughout the world prepare for their next war, it has forced even greater changes on both combatants how they fight now and plan structuring their national defense post-war.Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.Show LinksInside Russia’s Shadow Military Sustaining the War, by Mariya Y. OmelichevaIndia’s Ministry of External Affairs letter of 04 August 2025.Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) Analysis papers.Russian Military Reform BlogSummaryIn this episode of the Midrats Podcast, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is explored in depth, focusing on the initial misjudgments about the war's duration, the societal costs for Russia, and the regional disparities in the impact of the war. The conversation also delves into recruitment strategies, the role of paramilitary forces, economic pressures, and the dynamics within NATO. Additionally, military reforms, the influence of drones on warfare, and international support for Russia's military efforts are discussed, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the conflict and its broader implications.TakeawaysThe initial belief was that Russia would win quickly.The price of repression in Russia has increased significantly.Recruitment for the war is more successful in rural areas.The narrative has shifted to a defensive stance against the West.Paramilitary forces were initially relied upon due to manpower shortages.The Russian economy has held up better than expected despite sanctions.Drones have made battlefields more static and less mobile.Russia is undergoing military reforms to adapt to the ongoing conflict.The North-South divide in NATO influences regional support for Ukraine.Russia's GDP is lower than that of Texas, highlighting economic challenges.Chapters00:00: Intro to the Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict05:34: Initial Misjudgments and Long-Term Perspectives08:31: The Price of War on Russian Society12:11: Regional Disparities in Russia's War Impact16:38: Shifting Narratives and Recruitment Strategies20:28: The Role of Paramilitary Forces24:52: Economic Pressures and Negotiation Prospects30:12: Russia's War Economy and International Trade31:16: Military Reforms and Logistics Improvements38:50: The Impact of Drones on Warfare54:34: International Support and Drone Development56:25: NATO Dynamics and Eastern European Politics

There is no better way to stay out of the summer heat than to take an hour to join us for a Midrats Podcast melee!SummaryIn this episode of Midrats, hosts discuss a range of topics related to maritime and national security, including the importance of civil discourse in political discussions, Australia's acquisition of Japanese frigates, cybersecurity threats, and the geopolitical tensions in the Arctic and Antarctic. They emphasize the need for strong diplomatic efforts and the role of NATO in ensuring security in Europe and beyond.Show LinksInsults towards Medal of Honor recipient Florent GrobergAustralia selects Japanese Mogami frigateTrans-Caspian International Transport Route (AKA Middle Corridor)PRC Students in the USAThe China Defence Universities Tracker, Australian Strategic Policy InstituteBritish and U.S. F-35Bs Land on Japan’s JS KagaTakeawaysThe importance of civil discourse in political discussions.Patriotism should not be questioned based on political affiliations.Australia's acquisition of Japanese frigates signifies strong defense ties.Japan's military capabilities are highly regarded in the Pacific.Supply chain integrity is crucial for national security.Cybersecurity threats from foreign nations are increasing.Geopolitical tensions in the Arctic are rising due to China's claims.Diplomatic efforts can lead to conflict resolution in various regions.The U.S. has a significant role in international peacekeeping efforts.NATO's future is intertwined with the security of its member states.Chapters00:00: Introduction to the Melee Discussion02:03: Patriotism and Political Discourse13:22: Australia's Naval Developments19:14: The Role of Japan in Defense22:07: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Concerns23:39: Cybersecurity and National Security Risks35:14: Geopolitical Tensions in the Arctic and Antarctic48:07: Diplomatic Efforts and Conflict Resolution53:23: The Future of NATO and European Security

Show LinksNavy’s Plan for Unmanned SystemsDepartment of Crazy Ideas: How about a cheap inshore fleet? Mark Tempest, 2009.Buy Fords, Not Ferraris, Jerry Hendrix, 2008Droning on About Drones, CDR Salamander, 2013Building the Navy’s Hybrid Fleet, Lieutenant Commander Jack Rowley, Proceedings, July 2025.The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert A. HeinleinThe Mote in God’s Eye, Larry Niven and Jerry PournelleBenjamin Kohlmann, Nominated for Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Manpower and Reserve AffairsJohn Lewis-class replenishment oilerCleo Paskal on XA Death in the Pacific, CDR Salamander, July 2025Rods From GodAustria Ponders NATOSummaryIn this episode of Midrats, the hosts discuss the current state of the U.S. Navy, starting with the new Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) and the challenges he faces in balancing operational needs with budget constraints. They explore the importance of shipbuilding and naval readiness, innovations in technology such as modular attack surface craft, and the role of autonomous systems in enhancing operational capabilities. The conversation also touches on economic considerations in naval strategy, the potential for space-based systems, and the significance of recruitment and training for future naval forces. Additionally, the hosts discuss the role of the Naval Reserve, political dynamics in naval appointments, logistical challenges, and geopolitical considerations in the Pacific, concluding with thoughts on NATO's future and the potential inclusion of Austria.Chapters00:00: Introduction02:05: New CNO and Navy Leadership Challenges04:57: Shipbuilding and Naval Readiness09:43: Modular Attack Surface Craft, Drones, and Innovation16:15: Autonomous Systems and Experimentation19:23: Risk Management via Distributed Risk21:32: Economic Considerations in Naval Strategy22:55: Rods from God: Now More Than Ever30:18: The Role of the Naval Reserve33:50: Political Appointments and Their Impact36:22: More Oilers, Faster47:28: Saipan, and Geopolitical Considerations in the Pacific52:52: Austria’s future of NATO?01:01:46: Conclusion and Recommendations

On today’s Midrats, we have returning guest Craig Whiteside and his co-author Ian C. Rice joining us to discuss one of the nightmares we all have in the new book coming out this month. He co-authored it with Ian Rice, Non-state Special Operations: Capabilities and Effects.From the abstract:Building on previous research on Islamic State special operations, the book develops a theoretical framework surrounding a typology of VNSA (militants, proxies, criminal/cults, and mercenaries) to explore variations of non-state special operations, with multiple cases for each category of actor. Understanding when and why VNSA use special operations provides insights into the inner workings of such groups and how they campaign, and also has implications for the proliferation of special operation forces around the globe and its influence on non-state behaviour. This volume contributes to research on the recent trend of non-state actors surprising, and in some cases humiliating, their state opponents.Craig is Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College resident program at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. He is the co-author of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement (2020). He has a PhD in Political Science from Washington State University and is a former U.S. Army infantry officer.His coauthor Ian is an adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, adjunct faculty member with the College of Distance Education, USMC University, and a guest lecturer with the Royal Danish Defence College. He is a retired U.S. Army officer who served with special operations forces.Show LinksNon-state Special Operations: Capabilities and Effects, by Craig Whiteside and Ian Rice.Operation ChariotDefeat Into Victory: Battling Japan in Burma and India, 1942-1945, Field-Marshal Viscount William SlimSummaryIn this episode of Midrats, hosts discuss the complexities of non-state special operations with authors Craig Whiteside and Ian Rice. They delve into the historical context, defining characteristics, and implications of special operations conducted by non-state actors. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding the motivations and strategies of these actors, as well as the challenges they pose to state actors. The authors share insights from their new book, exploring the evolution of non-state operations and the need for a nuanced approach to countering them.TakeawaysSpecial operations are defined as tactical actions designed to achieve outsized effects.Historical examples illustrate the long-standing use of special operations by non-state actors.Understanding the typology of non-state actors is crucial for effective analysis and response.Prison breakouts are a common tactic used by non-state actors to regain manpower.Cults and criminal groups can also engage in special operations, often driven by self-interest.Not all terrorist acts qualify as special operations; criteria must be applied to distinguish them.The opportunity cost of special operations can be significant for both state and non-state actors.Mercenaries have a unique role in conducting special operations, particularly in coups.Chapters00:00: Introduction to Non-State Special Operations02:15: Genesis of the Book and Collaboration05:49: Defining Special Operations08:43: Historical Context of Non-State Actors11:36: Analyzing Non-State Actors18:13: Understanding the Typology of Non-State Actors23:42: Criteria for Special Operations28:45: Prison Breakouts as a Tactic32:13: Cults and Criminal Groups in Special Operations36:53: Distinguishing Terrorism from Special Operations43:26: The Cost of Special Operations49:13: Mercenaries and Coups52:08: Mindset of Special Operations58:47: Implications for Future Operations

Take a break from the heat today to discuss some of the hidden history, and importance, of the Presidential retreat at Camp David with the author of the book, Presidential Seclusion: The Power of Camp David, Charles Ferguson.After graduating from Georgia Tech and earning his commission, Charles Ferguson served for 11 years in the Submarine force onboard the USS Louisville and as Weapons Officer onboard USS Buffalo with a shore duty at Nuclear Power School in between. He switched to the IRR as Chaplain Candidate while attending seminary at Duke Divinity School and was recommissioned as an Active Duty Chaplain in 2010. As a chaplain he has served with both Navy and Marine Corps commands to include three and a half years as the Chaplain and Historian at Camp David.ShowlinkPresidential Seclusion: The Power of Camp DavidSummaryThis conversation explores the historical significance and operational dynamics of the Presidential retreat of Camp David. The discussion highlights its origins, the Navy's role in its management, and the unique environment it provides for presidents to make critical decisions. The conversation also delves into the architectural design that facilitates diplomacy, notable guests who have visited, and the personal touches each president has added to the retreat. Additionally, the role of the chaplain and the supportive relationship with the local community are examined, emphasizing the importance of solitude for leaders in high-pressure positions.Chapters00:00: Introduction to Camp David's Significance05:35: The Navy's Role in Camp David's History10:27: Becoming the Chaplain and Historian at Camp David15:22: The Origins and Transformation of Camp David20:38: The Impact of Camp David on Presidential Decisions29:15: Notable Guests and Diplomatic Encounters at Camp David30:53: Architectural Diplomacy at Camp David34:20: Presidential Modifications and Personal Touches38:04: The Origin of Camp David's Name40:58: Management and Operations at Camp David43:13: The Role of the Chaplain45:25: The Solitude of Leadership49:32: Community Interactions and Local Support53:22: Memorable Moments and Staff Contributions58:14: The Importance of Setting Conditions for Peace01:00: Future Projects and Closing Thoughts

Show LinkInfantryDort’s comment mentioned at start of the showSummaryThe conversation explores the themes of cultural assimilation, national identity, freedom of speech, and the challenges of civil discourse in contemporary society. The hosts discuss the implications of cultural integration on national security and the importance of leadership in fostering a healthy societal environment. They reflect on the historical context of civil rights movements and the need for a national conversation about current societal issues, emphasizing the value of freedom and the responsibilities that come with it.Chapters00:00: Introduction02:00: Cultural Assimilation and National Identity09:42: Challenges of Assimilation and Cultural Clashes14:47: Freedom of Speech and Its Boundaries20:31: The Role of Universities in Civil Discourse28:15: Historical Context of Civil Rights and Current Issues37:49: Protests and Civil Disobedience47:53: National Security and Military Readiness

What can the world’s most capable maritime and aerospace power do?The world was reminded this weekend.There is no other place this week’s Midrats could start but the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.SummaryThe conversation delves into the recent Operation Midnight Hammer, discussing its implications for U.S.-Iran relations, the threat of Iranian retaliation, and the strategic military operations involved. The hosts analyze the historical context of U.S.-Iran tensions, the effectiveness of military responses, and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the role of international relations and domestic political reactions. They also touch on naval operations, fleet readiness, and the evolving nature of mine warfare in modern military strategy.Chapters00:00: Operation Midnight Hammer: A Historic Overview05:31: Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and U.S. Response12:03: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation18:03: Military Capabilities and Strategic Operations23:09: The Role of International Relations29:09: Domestic Reactions and Political Implications35:08: The Future of U.S.-Iran Relations41:45: Naval Operations and Fleet Readiness48:04: Mine Warfare and Modern Naval Strategy54:47: Concluding Thoughts on Military Success and Future Challenges