Cyber is War

Welcome back to The Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.This season we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for the future of European security.This week we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roderich Kiesewetter, a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who has held various command and staff positions, including at the EU Council , NATO and the German Ministry of Defense. The two discuss the strategic framework of the recently released German defense policy, key reforms and capabilities, and what strength means in the new European security environment. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung USA. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Shifting Ground, hosts Larry Rubin and Nick Gvosdev are joined by Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, co-founder of CrowdStrike, and author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the 21st Century. Alperovitch discusses the collision of cybersecurity and international affairs, arguing that the cyber “problem” is fundamentally a geopolitical issue driven by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), talks with James Swartout, VP of Strategy at Ursa Major Technologies, about his career in national security and how his company is revolutionizing aerospace and defense.Explore more from Behind the Front here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Geo-economic and country risk expert Rachel Ziemba joins Nick and Larry to discuss the intersection of government policy and global commerce. This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.Related Reading: * Rachel’s portion of the Global Order After Ukraine Symposium here: ⁠Reassessing Sanctions Amid Shifting Global Order: Responding to Experimentation* Read more of Rachel’s insights in her newsletter, Weaponized Economy. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On this episode of Shifting Ground, Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld, Jr. (ret.) introduces his concept of the “global operating system” (GOS)—which includes the rules-based international order and the global economy—explaining that its foundation of international stability is at risk of catastrophic failure due to geopolitical cycles, political polarization, and the overextension of the prevailing power.Read Admiral Winnefeld’s essay ⁠The Principle Challenge: Arresting the Decline of the Global Operating System Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.We often assume our safety is a “government problem,” but guests Admiral Rob Bauer, the former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, and Strategic Communications Advisor Eleonora Russell argue that this mindset is our greatest vulnerability. Drawing from their 2025 book, If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: A Blueprint for Deterrence, they challenge the idea that military strength alone is enough to protect our future.In this special episode of the Ties That Bind we discuss the core lessons from the book, what a “whole of society” approach really entails, how to effectively rebuild trust and engage citizens and industry, and what the future of the alliance may look like if we start fighting for the “we” in a world of “me.” Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In the inaugural episode of Shifting Ground, the Hon. Stacey Dixon joins Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin to discuss the US government’s challenge of balancing national security interests by restricting sensitive technology exports with the need for American companies to compete globally and influence international technology standards. The conversation highlighted “accelerants” like the democratization of conflict technology and the erosion of public trust due to misinformation, recommending that the government secure critical infrastructure, improve cyber hygiene, and cultivate citizens’ digital literacy to counter the negative, unintended uses of emerging technologies.Read Stacey’s piece ⁠The World’s Hidden Accelerants: Technology, Trust, and System Fragility Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.This season, we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for European security.This week, we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roland Theis, a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who sits on the Defense and European Affairs Committees. The two discuss shifts in German defense policy, the erosion of transatlantic trust, and a way forward on rebuilding strong US-European ties. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Iran is facing massive protests and the regime is facing a significant challenge to its grip on power. The regime has unleashed the military, killing hundreds on the country’s streets. President Trump had threatened air strikes, raising questions about the future of the regime. What is the future of Iran?Aaron sat down with Saeid Golkar, an Iranian-American political scientist, and UC Foundation associate Professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, and Hamed Behravan, Vice President at DT Institute and Director of the Iran program.This episode is part of a collaboration between the Foreign Policy Research Institute and DT Institute about the future of governance in the Middle East. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This week, we go even further north, to Finland, one of the alliance’s newest members. Like the other frontline states we’ve visited this season, Finland shares a turbulent and complicated history with Russia that has long molded its security and foreign policy. But unlike the other frontline states, it was not a member of NATO at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. February 24, 2022, proved to be a lynchpin moment for how Finnish society viewed its security and its future.In this episode, we’ll hear from two Finnish experts about that moment in time, both culturally and politically, about the process and challenges of Finland’s NATO accession, the country’s strategic role in the Arctic, and what it means for the alliance. We’ll also hear about Finland’s whole-of-society defense model, how the country’s culture has informed its security calculus, and what other allies can learn from the Finnish experience. And we’ll also discuss lessons for Finland’s history for Ukraine.Featured Guests:* Minna Ålander is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.* Joel Linnainmäki is a Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former special advisor to the former Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto.Listen the previous episode on Latvia here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe