It's the Monopolies, Stupid

In this episode, Mariana Campero is joined by Professor Rafael Fernández de Castro, Director of the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at U.C. San Diego and former foreign policy advisor to Mexican President Felipe Calderón. They unpack his recent paper for the Aspen Strategy Group, which makes the case that U.S.-Mexico relations are facing their most acute breaking point since the 1920s. From the economic impact of annual USMCA "rolling sunset" reviews to growing tension over U.S. extradition demands and visa revocations, the three foundational pillars of U.S.–Mexico relations—trade, migration, and national security—are being stressed simultaneously by both Washington’s protectionism and Mexico’s domestic policy choices. They also discuss how Mexico’s administration shifted from pragmatic engagement to open defiance over high-profile U.S. extraditions, and where the line on Mexican sovereignty is drawn, they discern how much of Mexico’s economic slowdown stems from trade and USMCA uncertainty versus domestic choices like judicial reform, and how Mexico’s plummeting fertility rate (1.2 nationally, 0.8 in Mexico City) rewrites the long-term migration equation and labor dynamics.  Finally, Rafael recommends that Mexico should diversify its relationship with the White House by working on state-to-state alliances with U.S. governors to serve as a shield against White House changing priorities. 

In this episode of Mexico Matters, Mariana Campero is joined by David Mora, Senior Analyst for Mexico at the International Crisis Group, for a candid, field-based examination of the escalating power of Mexican cartels and the controversial increase in bilateral intelligence cooperation.  Together, they unpack the subtleties and the realities of criminal territorial control and how criminal group dominance impacts everyday life and regional economies. They also explain how drone technologies are being weaponized by cartels, through improving cartels’ ability for control, surveillance, and waging war.  They also discuss how President Claudia Sheinbaum has drawn a clear red line of cooperation with the United States and is not applying the same rules when it comes to prosecuting members of her own party. Finally, they speak about the systemic challenge of U.S. firearm trafficking into Mexico, and the future of cross-border intelligence sharing.

In this episode, Mariana Campero speaks with Valeria Moy, Director of IMCO and host of the Peras y Manzanas podcast. They kick off with a demographic shockwave: Mexico’s Statistics Institute, INEGI, released an intercensal figures which revealed that Mexico’s fertility rate plummeted to 1.2, with Mexico City dropping to an astonishing 0.8—lower than Tokyo. What does the rapid shattering of the "endless young labor supply" mean for the nation's pension system, long-term productivity, and labor market? Beyond the demographic shift, they tackle Mexico’s persistent growth puzzle. Despite direct access to the world’s largest market, annual GDP growth remains stagnant at around 2% (or lower). Valeria unpacks the structural bottlenecks, fiscal handcuffs left behind by previous infrastructure projects, low tax revenues due to an informal economy, and the widening gap between nearshoring hype and actual foreign direct investment. From the trade-offs of the "Super Peso" to the real economic costs of judicial uncertainty and insecurity, this episode delivers a sharp, reality-grounded look at what it will take for President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration to unlock real potential growth or not.

In this episode, Mariana Campero sits down with Guillermo García Alcocer, former chairman of Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and one of the region’s premier energy policy experts. Together, they break down Mexico’s dramatic shift from a dominant energy exporter to a country relying on the U.S. for over 70% of its refined fuels and natural gas. They explore the strategic trade-offs and vulnerabilities of this dependence on cheap American gas, as well as the pragmatic policy shifts being implemented to power Mexico's booming manufacturing sector and data centers. They also discuss the unrealistic outlook for Mexico’s new policy on fracking, Pemex’s mounting debt burden, and why public-private "mixed contracts" struggled to attract bidders.  Finally, they look at the broader regional landscape, examining how the rise of energy players in Guyana, Brazil, and Venezuela could permanently redirect vital capital away from Mexico, and why Mexico’s own energy policies mean fewer companies are moving to Mexico. 

In this episode, Mariana sits down with Andres Martinez, journalist, Co-Director of the Great Game Lab at Arizona State University, and author of the gripping new book, The Great Game: A Tale of Two Footballs and America’s Quest to Conquer Global Sport. Together, they decode the massive forces driving soccer from the American fringes into the mainstream.  From the explosive evolution of the tournament since 2024 to becoming a global blueprint for women’s soccer, they break down how American capital is aggressively buying into and controlling historic European clubs, among others.  They also look ahead to the expanded 48-team World Cup. What are the realistic odds for Mexico and the United States teams to survive the brutal new Round 32 and move beyond?  Finally, they dive into a fascinating, high stakes human story unfolding on the U.S.-Mexico border, where scouts from both federations fiercely battle to recruit the next generation of dual-national stars.

In this episode, Mariana speaks with counter-terrorism and Middle East expert Dan Byman to dissect the current state of the US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on the upcoming North American World Cup 2026. They analyze Iran’s increased deterrence positioning with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, their use of asymmetric warfare, and lay potentials scenarios to explain Iran’s current terrorism restraint.  Is it a sign of incapacity or strategic pause?  They also discuss the importance for the Iran’s soccer players to participate in the sporting tournament,ent and the risks it implies from a security and diplomatic perspective.  They discuss why Mexico can be a security “soft spot” as the country maintains diplomatic ties with Teheran, and the bigger challenges posed by a lone person attack.

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Adolfo Babatz, Founder and CEO of Clip, the company that transformed the Mexican streetscape by not only putting a payment terminal into the hands of micro-merchants but also by offering them financial services to help them become more efficient to survive.  They discuss the structural issues blocking Mexico’s fintech revolution and digital currency adoption. They also explore what other countries like Brazil and India have done to reduce the attractiveness of cash, the impact of AI on Clip and Latin America, and which model will  the region follow: the “Super App” model of China, or the fragmented, specialized approach of the U.S.   Lastly, they touch upon Adolfo’s personal qualities and his mission to bridge the socioeconomic gap between the banked and unbanked merchants.

Note: This episode was recorded on February 17th, 2026, before the death of Mexican cartel leader “El Mencho.”  In this episode, Mariana speaks with Jorge Castaneda, a Mexican politician and academic who served as Secretary of State from 2000 to 2003.  They discuss President Trump’s high-pressure stance toward Mexico and how President Sheinbaum has thus far been able to navigate his demands while avoiding a face-to-face meeting. They also explore the on-the-ground realities behind President Trump’s claims that Mexican trafficking organizations are allied with the government, the recent shifts in Mexico's security strategy, and the risks of a unilateral U.S. incursion. Finally, the conversation turns to the broader region, examining the likelihood of regime change in Cuba, the evolving situation in Venezuela, and the anticipated pushback to the new "Don-Roe Doctrine" in South America.  As these nations increasingly depend on China as a primary market for commodities and a major source of foreign direct investment, the tension between U.S. hemispheric policy and global economic realities has never been higher.

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Alan Stoga, former partner of Henry Kissinger and Chairman of the Tallberg Foundations, about the historical consequences of the Trump presidency, how the world we grow up in is morphing, and what is likely to be America’s role in this new world.  They also discuss how countries like Mexico will not only have to learn how to adapt to this new context but also recognize that President Trump will not shy away from merging economic, commercial, military and security tools to achieve his desired outcomes.  Lastly, they discern how the Don-Roe Doctrine is different (or similar) to the traditional U.S. approach towards Latin America, and how, in this context, China's presence in the Americas might be challenged.

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Juan Pablo Spinetto, an opinion columnist at Bloomberg covering Latin America business, economic affairs and politics, about President Claudia Sheinbaum’s first year in office. They discuss the differences in her style and policies from her predecessor, the popularity and sustainability of her government’s entitlements, and the biggest challenges she and Mexico will face in 2026, particularly when renewing (or renegotiating with President Trump) the North American Free Trade Agreement (USMCA).  They also talk about the rationale behind Mexico’s recent imposition of a 50% tariff on 1,400 goods coming from China and other Asia countries and the potential short term impact these tariffs might have on Mexican consumers and manufacturers.  Lastly, the touch upon the current U.S. military build up in the Caribbean and the economic pressure the U.S. is currently imposing on the Venezuelan regime, as well as the geopolitical risks in the region of a U.S. intervention.